The impact of inflation risk affecting
corporate bond returns can be significant.
In their October 2014 paper entitled «Factor Investing in the Corporate Bond Market», Patrick Houweling and Jeroen van Zundert develop and test a four - factor (size, low - risk, value and momentum) model of future
corporate bond returns.
They evaluate factor portfolio performance based on excess return of constituent corporate bonds versus duration - matched U.S. Treasuries (thereby focusing on the default premium component of
corporate bond returns).
Does a factor (style) premium model identify exploitable abnormal
corporate bond returns?
Morningstar reports a five - year
corporate bond return of 6.22 % per year and an annual gain of 5.94 % for U.S. Treasury bonds.
Not exact matches
The Vanguard High Yield
Corporate Bond fund has underperformed Treasuries in the recent downturn, but it still has a positive
return of 0.5 percent in the year - to - date through Oct. 27.
Among
corporate issues, the bank
bonds I monitor total
returned an average of 4.6 % this year; utility
bonds, 4.2 %; and other
corporate bonds, 4.4 %.
This cautious outlook aligns with Morgan Stanley's 2018 forecast, which called for negative
returns for
corporate bonds in the US, Europe, and Asia.
Low interest rates have given a huge incentive to shift out of low - risk assets into stocks and
corporate bonds in search of higher
returns.
For U.S.
bond market returns, we use the S&P High Grade Corporate Index from 1926 through 1968, the Citigroup High Grade Index from 1969 through 1972, the Lehman Brothers U.S. Long Credit AA Index from 1973 through 1975, the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index from 1976 through 2009, and the Spliced Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Bond Index thereaf
bond market
returns, we use the S&P High Grade
Corporate Index from 1926 through 1968, the Citigroup High Grade Index from 1969 through 1972, the Lehman Brothers U.S. Long Credit AA Index from 1973 through 1975, the Barclays U.S. Aggregate
Bond Index from 1976 through 2009, and the Spliced Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Bond Index thereaf
Bond Index from 1976 through 2009, and the Spliced Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted
Bond Index thereaf
Bond Index thereafter.
High - yield
bonds delivered another year of strong performance in 2017, with the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays US
Corporate High Yield 2 % Issuer Capped Index
returning 7.2 % as we approached year - end.
In the credit markets, both investment - grade and high - yield
corporate bonds had negative
returns for the first time in eight quarters, with down - in - quality subsectors in each unconventionally outperforming higher quality ones.
But with a fixed intermediation cost charged by commercial banks competing against each other, this can put an upper limit on the
returns granted to
corporate bond holders.
Quality
corporate bonds with maturities of about five to seven years
returned about 9 % in 2011.
iShares S&P ® / TSX ® 60 Index Fund («XIU»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Composite Index Fund («XIC»), iShares S&P / TSX Completion Index Fund («XMD»), iShares S&P / TSX SmallCap Index Fund («XCS»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Energy Index Fund («XEG»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Financials Index Fund («XFN»), iShares S&P / TSX Global Gold Index Fund («XGD»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Information Technology Index Fund («XIT»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped REIT Index Fund («XRE»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Materials Index Fund («XMA»), iShares Diversified Monthly Income Fund («XTR»), iShares S&P 500 Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XSP»), iShares Jantzi Social Index Fund («XEN»), iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund («XDV»), iShares Dow Jones Canada Select Growth Index Fund («XCG»), iShares Dow Jones Canada Select Value Index Fund («XCV»), iShares DEX Universe
Bond Index Fund («XBB»), iShares DEX Short Term
Bond Index Fund («XSB»), iShares DEX Real
Return Bond Index Fund («XRB»), iShares DEX Long Term
Bond Index Fund («XLB»), iShares DEX All Government
Bond Index Fund («XGB»), and iShares DEX All
Corporate Bond Index Fund («XCB»), iShares MSCI EAFE ® Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XIN»), iShares Russell 2000 ® Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XSU»), iShares Conservative Core Portfolio Builder Fund («XCR»), iShares Growth Core Portfolio Builder Fund («XGR»), iShares Global Completion Portfolio Builder Fund («XGC»), iShares Alternatives Completion Portfolio Builder Fund («XAL»), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund («XEM») and iShares MSCI World Index Fund («XWD»), iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund («XBZ»), iShares China Index Fund («XCH»), iShares S&P CNX Nifty India Index Fund («XID»), iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund («XLA»), iShares U.S. High Yield
Bond Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XHY»), iShares U.S. IG
Corporate Bond Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XIG»), iShares DEX HYBrid
Bond Index Fund («XHB»), iShares S&P / TSX North American Preferred Stock Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XPF»), iShares S&P / TSX Equity Income Index Fund («XEI»), iShares S&P / TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index Fund («XST»), iShares Capped Utilities Index Fund («XUT»), iShares S&P / TSX Global Base Metals Index Fund («XBM»), iShares S&P Global Healthcare Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XHC»), iShares NASDAQ 100 Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XQQ») and iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets
Bond Index Fund (CAD - Hedged)(«XEB»)(collectively, the «Funds») may or may not be suitable for all investors.
*
Bonds are a portfolio consisting of the following: (data provided by DFA's
Returns 2.0) One - Month US Treasury Bills (7.5 %) Five - Year US Treasury Notes (12.5 %) Long - Term
Corporate Bonds (30 %) Long - Term Government
Bonds (50 %)
A portfolio of five - year notes (20 %), long - term government
bonds (35 %), long - term
corporate bonds (30 %) and one - month t - bills (15 %)
returned 2.7 % a year for this 32 year period.
I'll probably do 40 % in government
bonds, 25 %
corporate bonds, 25 % S&P index and 10 % in a dividend stock index and expect closer to 4 - 5 % annual
returns.
When considering an investment in
corporate bonds, remember that higher potential
returns are typically associated with greater risk.
When investing in
corporate bonds, investors should remember that multiple risk factors can impact short - and long - term
returns.
Because Treasuries are safe, they offer a lower
return than riskier debt instruments, such as
corporate bonds.
Each month, Palhares and Richardson sorted
corporate bonds into quintiles based on each liquidity measure and computed the
return of a long / short portfolio that buys the least liquid
bonds (i.e., smaller issue sizes, higher bid / ask spreads, lower trading volume, higher price impact or higher frequency of zero - trading days) and sells the most liquid
bonds (i.e., larger issue sizes, smaller bid / ask spreads, higher trading volume, lower price impact or lower frequency of zero - trading days).
While that is interesting, it doesn't tell us about
returns to
corporate bond investors.
Which doesn't cover investments in shares, the
returns on which are directly affected by changes in the
corporate tax rate (or the myriad of other investment vehicles liked
bonds, REITs, mutual fund trusts, etc. that make up the bulk of the universe for Canadian investors).
Despite the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike, intermediate term investment grade
bonds (
Corporates and Munis) still squeaked out positive
returns in Q1.
They relate art
returns to those for commodities,
corporate bonds, 10 - year U.S. Treasury notes, hedge funds, private equity, real estate, global stocks and U.S. Treasury bills.
Those outflows showed up in
returns data, with a Bloomberg Barclay's Index of U.S.
corporate bonds posting a 2.3 per cent loss for the first three months of the year.
Over the entire century, high - grade
corporate bonds offered an incremental 0.5 % of compounded
return as a default risk premium.
Long - term
corporate bonds, those issued by some of the most stable companies, have provided a 7.4 %
return annually over the last decade.
He also noted that it is a very poor time to buy
corporate bonds (high yield
bond index yield 4.93 %) and Gundlach sees a negative
return for the S&P in 2018 as the rates rout eventually gives the equity market the yips.
But as risk aversion subsides, and investors
return to
corporate bonds and other assets, investors are now calculating the risks of renewed dollar inflation.
U.S.
Corporate Bonds & Senior Loans: Only giving up -0.83 % for the month, the S&P / LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index stayed out of the fixed income fray and has
returned a positive 1.99 %, year - to - date.
As a result of the likely move into negative real
returns on cash, more cash savers will move into UK government
bonds (gilts), more gilt owners will swap them for
corporate bonds, some more will move into equities, and a sliver of risk - takers will use cheaper financing to start businesses or take out loans to build property.
June 19 and 20 showed the two worst daily
returns of -0.72 % and -0.93 %, respectively for the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade
Corporate Bond Index.
-- The biggest
corporate bond - market
returns since 2009 mask a growing sense of unease.
For instance, safe and liquid bank deposit accounts and short term Treasuries are yielding close to nothing while there are still high yield
corporate bonds delivering double digit
returns.
That will likely be double the
return expected on safe
corporate bonds, for assuming that extra risk of owning the equity.
In the second quarter so far, the S&P 500 Energy Index (equity) has
returned over 9.1 % in total
return and the S&P 500 Energy
Corporate Bond Index has
returned over 7.3 %.
On the other hand, companies can come and go, so
corporate bonds typically offer greater
returns with greater risk.
In all, IGIH provides the credit risk and
return of investment - grade
corporate bonds while aiming to screen out risk from rising rates.
Using monthly data for a broad (but filtered) sample of U.S.
corporate bonds / issuers (10,825
bonds and 5,300 issuers) and monthly
return data for 213 actively managed credit hedge funds and 218 actively managed credit mutual funds during January 1997 through December 2013, they find that: Keep Reading
US
Corporate Bond index
returns use Bank of America Merrill Lynch Index data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
Corporate advisor Duff & Phelps produces the Stocks,
Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook (formerly Ibbotson SBBI Yearbook), which compiles extensive data on these
returns in its annual publication.
Acquire the monthly total credit premium of each
corporate bond as the difference in total (coupon - reinvested)
returns between the
bond and a duration - matched U.S. Treasury instrument.
Does the credit premium, measured by the difference in
returns between U.S.
corporate bonds and duration - matched U.S. Treasuries, exhibit momentum?
They first look at
return correlations and then consider mean - variance portfolio optimization with global equities, U.S. Treasury
bonds, U.S. high - yield
corporate bonds, emerging government
bonds and frontier government
bonds.
Using global industrial production growth as specified, annual total
returns for 30 country, two regional and world stock indexes, currency spot and one - year forward exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar, spot prices on 19 commodities, total annual
returns for a global government
bond index and a U.S.
corporate bond index, and country inflation rates as available during 1970 through 2013, they find that: Keep Reading
That's dragged yields on $ 7.8 trillion of government debt negative; by contrast, the lowest rated
corporate bonds have
returned 151 percent since 2008, including 9.4 percent this year through mid-June.
The investment
return data calculates the real
return of a conservative portfolio invested 25 percent in the S&P 500, 25 percent in small US stock, 25 percent in long - term US
corporate bonds, and 25 percent in an equal split of 30 day treasury bills, intermediate - term treasury
bonds, and long - term treasury
bonds **.
Land our FD to Reliance liquid Fund and use its ATM for day to day use......... 7lacs also its 5 yr
return is comparable to short term
corporate bonds and its a well managed fund 3.