Using updated and
corrected temperature observations taken at thousands of weather observing stations over land and as many commercial ships and buoys at sea, the researchers show that temperatures in the 21st century did not plateau, as thought.
Not exact matches
If this interpretation of the
observations is
correct, it could confirm a 30 - year - old prediction of the cosmic inflation theory: that the simplest models of inflation can generate an observable level of gravitational waves, comparable to density or
temperature fluctuations in the early universe.
Based on the same
observation one could argue that the hockeystick methodology is
correct to pick out the bristlecones because it is the only proxy that shows a climate signal consistent with a 20th century rise in
temperature as measured by meteorological stations.
The issue of tropospheric
temperature amplification remains to be completely resolved, but disparities between predictions and
observations have diminished as instrument biases have been
corrected, and it is not unreasonable to expect that further improvements in instrumentation accuracy will largely eliminate the remaining disparities.
Christy is
correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than
observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is because over the past decade virtually every natural influence on global
temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising aerosols emissions, and increased heat storage in the deep oceans).
Compare the SAR and the TAR for example, and since then we have many more proxy reconstructions to consider, the satellite analyses
corrected, new data about energy imbalances, better
observations of ocean currents and
temperature, ice sheet behaviour in Greenland and Antarctica and much much more.
The value of 2015 was
corrected for a small bias in the mean december
temperature and a bias in the variability, which is 20 % lower in the model than in the
observations.
Differences between the regression slope and the true feedback parameter are significantly reduced when 1) a more realistic value for the ocean mixed layer depth is used, 2) a
corrected standard deviation of outgoing radiation is used, and 3) the model
temperature variability is computed over the same time interval as the
observations.
RSS pointed out a significant error in UAH's
temperature analysis caused by a failure to accurately
correct for the effects of orbital decay on
observations across multiple satellites.
The authors use a sea surface
temperature data set that has been
corrected for biases in sea surface data that arise due to the difference in measurements from ships and buoys, and the authors incorporate a much larger amount of data from land - based
observations.
When
corrected, the range of likely warming based on surface
temperature observations is in line with earlier estimates, despite the recent slowdown.