Expectations of decreases in large source regions such as China [195] may be
counteracted by aerosol increases other places as global population continues to increase.
Not exact matches
«It is widely understood that
aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate,
counteracting the warming caused
by greenhouse gases.
However, a concerted effort to reduce non-CO2 forcings
by methane, tropospheric ozone, other trace gases, and black soot might
counteract the warming from a decline in reflective
aerosols [54], [75].
Volcanoes are powerful sources of sulfate
aerosols that
counteract global warming
by reflecting incoming solar radiation back into space.
Hansen's group estimates that
aerosols probably
counteract about half of the warming produced
by man - made greenhouse gases, but he cautions that better measurements of these elusive particles are needed.
Mid-century involved CO2 - mediated warming
counteracted by negative
aerosol forcing, with perhaps a contribution from the chaotic component of the PDO.
They explain the pause as warming due to CO2,
counteracted by cooling due to
aerosols (see e.g. Table, p. 54 of the Technical Summary to AR5) and mysterious unknown forces («natural variability»).
However, a concerted effort to reduce non-CO2 forcings
by methane, tropospheric ozone, other trace gases, and black soot might
counteract the warming from a decline in reflective
aerosols [54], [75].
If so, how would you reconcile this with global warming
counteracted in the mid 20th century
by NH
aerosols?
Answer: The forcing of greenhouse gases is
counteracted by about 1 Watt / m2 of
aerosols, leaving us with 1.5 W / m2 or thereabouts, or less than half that of a doubling of CO2 (3.7 W / m2), and thermal inertia cuts that
by half again for the high end sensitivities, and not much of a cut is required for the low end sensitivites (1.5 C times fraction of forcing 1.5 / 3.7 giving about 0.6 C).