It's also entirely possible that it's the public perception that is
creating value betting on these East Coast teams.
As we expected, this pattern of bettors overvaluing home field advantage is amplified in «must - win» games which
creates value betting against these home teams.
Not exact matches
Now, Robbins is
betting on a few different companies whose tie - ups are likely to get a friendlier reception from antitrust officials, and which he thinks will
create value in the combined businesses.
The old CDO market
created lots of opportunities for investors to
bet against corporate credit, because CDOs
created lots of single - name credit default swaps that relative -
value investors could buy.
Biotech companies tend to be speculative plays,
bets on whether or not the company's research team will be able
create a product or discovery of
value.
This causes a false sense of security for bettors and can
create excellent
value betting against the nation's top ranked teams.
The media loves to over-publicize teams on a winning streak and vastly overreact to struggling teams, but does that
create any
value on the
betting line?
Just like McGregor now, Hillary Clinton's odds skyrocketed in the final weeks and days before November 8th thanks to an influx of public
betting, which
created great
value for bettors to go against the grain and take a shot on Trump at an inflated number.
They also love
betting home teams, favorites and overs, which always
creates added
value on dogs, visitors and unders.
Sharp money hasn't taken a side in this matchup, but one - sided public
betting appears to have
created some contrarian
value on the Boilermakers.
This influx of
bets and public money on one side ends up
creating value on the other side; the line may move and sharps will come in to grab it, or the line won't move and sportsbooks will end up with more liability on the public side.
As always we're going to fade the public, take the
value created by square bettors and
bet the road dog in this NFC South matchup.
Again, the one - sided
betting action is
creating some line
value.
It's also appearing unlikely that Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) will be able to go for New York, but the Giants are still receiving more than half the
bets, perhaps
creating some reverse line movement
value on Dallas.
As I found while
creating one of our more lucrative NFL
betting systems, contrarian underdogs offer tremendous
value in conference games.
With this knowledge in mind, our determination was to find other profitable
betting systems that capitalized on the artificial
value creating by these AP rankings.
Although sportsbooks know this information and build it into line, these «square» bettors often
create artificial
value by heavily
betting the favorite and forcing sportsbooks to shade their lines to encourage action on the other side (typically the underdog).
The Broncos are getting 81 % of
bets following their impressive 42 - 17 Week 2 win over Dallas,
creating some potential contrarian
value on Buffalo as home dogs.
Historically this has
created value on underdogs and unders, but every season we update our
betting percentage data to find the optimal
betting percentage threshold for
betting against the public.
We have previously discussed why the increased number of
bets creates additional
value for most
betting against the public strategies, and that has certainly been true during the current bowl season.
We believed that oddsmakers would shade their lines to account for that public
betting, which would
create value for opportunistic bettors — especially when the volume ticks up in the playoffs.
With the influx of public money (as opposed to sharp action) producing an inflated line, we're happy to grab the extra two points of
value created by the lopsided
betting.
Much like our
betting against the public philosophy, this often
creates contrarian
value for opportunistic bettors.
This
creates a bunch of
value on the other side and we see that
betting against these top teams is a wise decision at the most rudimentary of levels.
The whole concept of
betting against the public is based on the idea that «square» or uninformed public bettors
create artificial line
value by pounding one side — typically the favorite or the over.
One thing that
creates value in fading the public is the sheer volume of
bets placed on a given game.
The public typically will
bet overs which
creates value for sharper bettors who tend to lean towards the under.
We should also point out that this extremely one - sided public
betting has historically
created excellent
value for contrarian bettors.
We believed that this oversight would
create additional
value when
betting against tired teams.
Not all
bet signals are
created equal, and there's more
value on moves triggered at market - setting sportsbooks like CRIS and Pinnacle.
It certainly appears that this lopsided public
betting has
created value on the Dolphins, but perhaps more importantly, they fit our vaunted 80/20 rule.
The fact that they're only receiving 20 % of spread
bets is shocking, and has
created excellent contrarian
value.
The NHL playoffs have started and we believe that a combination of several factors will
create contrarian
value in the NHL playoff sports
betting marketplace.
This
creates additional
value for contrarian strategies in heavily
bet games with one - sided public
betting.
The first week of NFL action is in the books and, as we explained in our most contrarian
betting article for ESPN, that has historically
created value based on overreactions from the
betting public.
This lopsided
betting has shifted the line 12 points at Pinnacle, which may have
created some
value on the National League.
This could
create contrarian
value on their opponent, so bettors should continue to monitor these lines and
betting trends.
Squares — or casual weekend warriors — overwhelmingly
bet favorites and high - scoring teams, which has historically
created value on underdogs.
Public
betting has moved the line from +140 to -105 since opening which I think has
created some
value the other way on Hull.
Although the only picks we fully endorse are our Best
Bets, sharp money indicators like reverse line movement help offer insight into which teams are offering
value and whether public perception is
creating artificial line
value.
When that lopsided public
betting creates at least a half - point of artificial
value (i.e. moving from +3 to +3.5 or -7 to -6.5), that record improves to 62 - 42 ATS (59.6 %).
I don't normally play totals but keep an eye on the line movement and
betting %'s as they could
create contrarian
value on the Over.
For the record, this is a very small sample and there's a good chance we'll see an overreaction in the
betting trends next week based on Tebow's performance Sunday, but it doesn't mean there isn't
value being
created for this week's game.
Clearly oddsmakers aren't in the business of
creating value in a
betting market purely by happenstance or insinuating that Germany and Portugal are power rated as equals.
-LSB-...] scorned companies are ignored like
value stocks, which
creates the opportunity for contrarian
bet.
Admired companies are bid up like glamour stocks, and scorned companies are ignored like
value stocks, which
creates the opportunity for contrarian
bet.
The problem with most
value stocks is they're essentially slow - motion event - driven investments — management and / or the business clearly aren't
creating / compounding
value, so what you're really
betting on is the potential closing * of a
value gap... and your IRR gets worse & worse with every passing year.
Nintendo are the masters of
creating artificial shortages to increase perceived demand /
value in their products, they're scalpers favorite company, and I'd
bet Nintendos favorite consumers are the scalpers, they're the reason amiibo were so successful for so long, until they started becoming actually available and started dropping in demand.
It's
created a fertile ground for illegal
betting as some players risk their reputation and career to get these high -
value items from other players.
According to sources quoted by The Wall Street Journal, Chinese people were using bitcoin to
bet against the
value of the yuan and move money outside the country, and the authorities decided to issue the ban because the bitcoin market was
creating «too much disorder.»