In addition to it's focus on temperature increase, the report also suggests the use of
cumulative carbon emissions over time as a valuable metric for linking emissions to impacts.
Not exact matches
Extrapolating from their forest study, the researchers estimate that
over this century the warming induced from global soil loss, at the rate they monitored, will be «equivalent to the past two decades of
carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and is comparable in magnitude to the
cumulative carbon losses to the atmosphere due to human - driven land use change during the past two centuries.»
But a
carbon tax that increases
over time at a persistent and predictable rate would minimize the expected economic cost of achieving any climate target (targets that depend, given the way the climate system works, on
cumulative emissions over many decades).
Holding concentrations or temperature (more remotely) to a particular target therefore means limiting
cumulative emissions of, say,
carbon over time... a limited amount of time if we are talking about an iterative approach, and
over a long period of time if we are talking about reducing the likelihood of some very nasty consequences well after we (but not our grandchildren — if we are lucky enough to have some) are gone.
They argue that keeping the most likely warming due to CO2 alone to 2 °C will require us to limit
cumulative CO2
emissions over the period 1750 — 2500 to 1 trillion tonnes of
carbon.
A
carbon budget is the
cumulative amount of
carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions permitted
over a period of time to keep within a certain temperature threshold.
By aggregating savings since 2008, this equates to a
cumulative 8,178,000 tonnes of
carbon emissions that have been avoided
over the entire period.
They could cut
cumulative carbon dioxide
emissions by 34 billion metric tons, more than the total
emissions from fossil fuels in this country
over six years.
A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human - induced global warming and
cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to
emissions over shorter periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker.
«In our mor recent global model simulations the ocean heat - uptake is slower than previously estimated, the ocean uptake of
carbon is weaker, feedbacks from the land system as temperature rises are stronger,
cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases
over the century are higher, and offsetting cooling from aerosol
emissions is lower.
Reductions in some short - lived human - induced
emissions that contribute to warming, such as black
carbon (soot) and methane, could reduce some of the projected warming
over the next couple of decades, because, unlike
carbon dioxide, these gases and particles have relatively short atmospheric lifetimes.The amount of warming projected beyond the next few decades is directly linked to the
cumulative global
emissions of heat - trapping gases and particles.
Overall, although natural gas is a non-renewable fossil fuel that emits
carbon dioxide, the
cumulative emissions saved by fuel switching
over the next decade from coal to natural gas are likely to prove far cheaper than the removal of
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in future decades.
Because all 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios — except Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), which leads to the total radiative forcing of greenhouse gases of 2.6 W m − 2 in 2100 — imply that
cumulative carbon emission will exceed 1,000 Gt in the twenty - first century, our results suggest that anthropogenic interference will make the initiation of the next ice age impossible
over a time period comparable to the duration of previous glacial cycles.»