This ends up changing estimates of
cumulative carbon emissions since the pre-industrial period, but given the large uncertainties involved the authors caution against using these revisions to draw conclusions about remaining carbon budgets associated with staying within the 2C or 1.5 C warming targets.
The United States is the second biggest emitter of carbon dioxide worldwide (and has contributed, with Europe, 52 % of the share of
cumulative carbon emissions since industrialization).
Not exact matches
Instead, what's important is the
cumulative emissions of
carbon dioxide (CO2)--
since a single molecule of CO2 can linger in the atmosphere for as long as 1,000 years — emitted
since the dawn of the industrial era.
It's a big job, but it's one that has to be done anyway,
since if the whole world tries to pull itself into prosperity by burning
carbon at the rate the US does, then we run out of coal even at the highest estimates by 2100, and you wind up with no fossil energy and the hellish climate you get from 5000 gigatonnes
cumulative emission.
IPCC AR5 summarizes the scientific literature and estimates that
cumulative carbon dioxide
emissions related to human activities need to be limited to 1 trillion tonnes C (1000 PgC)
since the beginning of the industrial revolution if we are to have a likely chance of limiting warming to 2 °C.
Solomon argued a couple of years ago that
cumulative carbon emissions are the best way of assessing climate risk,
since they avoid problems such as time lags that mess with other measures, such as atmospheric concentrations.
Regarding text stating that limiting warming from anthropogenic CO2
emissions alone to likely less than 2 °C
since 1861 - 1880 requires
cumulative emissions to stay below 1000 gigatonnes of
carbon (GtC), Saudi Arabia urged using 1850 for consistency, to which the CLAs responded that some model simulations only begin in 1860, which delegates agreed to reflect in a footnote.
By aggregating savings
since 2008, this equates to a
cumulative 8,178,000 tonnes of
carbon emissions that have been avoided over the entire period.
But hailing the
carbon saved by the US
since 2005, while ignoring what it added before that would fail to acknowledge the
cumulative nature of the
carbon emissions burden on the atmosphere.
It states that to stand a good chance (a probability of 66 percent or more) of limiting warming to less than 2 °C
since the mid-19th century will require
cumulative CO2
emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay under 800 gigatons of
carbon.
The U.S. Department of Energy's
Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center database pegs
cumulative global
emissions since 1751 at 1,323 gigatonnes of
carbon dioxide (1,450 GtCO2e including methane).
Keeping global average temperatures to 1.4 C would mean
cumulative global
emissions couldn't exceed around 600bn tonnes of
carbon (~ 2,200 bn tonnes of CO2)
since pre-industrial times, rather than 850bn tonnes (~ 3,100 bn tonnes of CO2) for 2C, the paper says.