His work has shown that limiting
cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide may be a more robust approach to climate change mitigation policy than attempting to define a «safe» stabilization level for atmospheric greenhouse gases.
Instead, what's important is
the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)-- since a single molecule of CO2 can linger in the atmosphere for as long as 1,000 years — emitted since the dawn of the industrial era.
Not exact matches
Even the 350 - ppm limit for
carbon dioxide is «questionable,» says physicist Myles Allen
of the Climate Dynamics Group at the University
of Oxford, and focusing instead on keeping
cumulative emissions below one trillion metric tons might make more sense, which would mean humanity has already used up more than half
of its overall
emissions budget.
The United States is the second biggest emitter
of carbon dioxide worldwide (and has contributed, with Europe, 52 %
of the share
of cumulative carbon emissions since industrialization).
It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance
of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty - first century, the
cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes
of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2).
Finally, to revisit the question originally posed @ 203: Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case
of «1 trillion metric tons
of additional
cumulative energy - related
carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what increase in average global surface temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case
of «1 trillion metric tons
of additional
cumulative energy - related
carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what increase in average global surface temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
IPCC AR5 summarizes the scientific literature and estimates that
cumulative carbon dioxide emissions related to human activities need to be limited to 1 trillion tonnes C (1000 PgC) since the beginning
of the industrial revolution if we are to have a likely chance
of limiting warming to 2 °C.
This watershed, painstaking analysis traces
emissions totaling 914 gigatons
of carbon dioxide - equivalent — which amounts to 63 %
of the
cumulative worldwide
emissions of industrial CO2 and methane between 1751 and 2010 — to 90 so - called «
carbon major» entities worldwide.
Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions should be calculated on a per capita basis for each country, so that every nation can shoulder a common but differentiated responsibility for climate change... Such a calculation «better reflects the principal
of equity for developing countries»...
A
carbon budget is the
cumulative amount
of carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions permitted over a period
of time to keep within a certain temperature threshold.
Wasdell said that the draft submitted by scientists contained a metric projecting
cumulative total anthropogenic
carbon dioxide emissions, on the basis
of which a «
carbon budget» was estimated — the quantity
of carbon that could be safely emitted without breaching the 2 degrees Celsius limit to avoid dangerous global warming.
Reductions in some short - lived human - induced
emissions that contribute to warming, such as black
carbon (soot) and methane, could reduce some
of the projected warming over the next couple
of decades, because, unlike
carbon dioxide, these gases and particles have relatively short atmospheric lifetimes.The amount
of warming projected beyond the next few decades is directly linked to the
cumulative global
emissions of heat - trapping gases and particles.
The U.S. Department
of Energy's
Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center database pegs cumulative global emissions since 1751 at 1,323 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (1,450 GtCO2e including me
Dioxide Information and Analysis Center database pegs
cumulative global
emissions since 1751 at 1,323 gigatonnes
of carbon dioxide (1,450 GtCO2e including me
dioxide (1,450 GtCO2e including methane).
Overall, although natural gas is a non-renewable fossil fuel that emits
carbon dioxide, the
cumulative emissions saved by fuel switching over the next decade from coal to natural gas are likely to prove far cheaper than the removal
of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in future decades.
Overall the G8 pathway has
cumulative carbon dioxide emissions (2012 — 2100)
of 1,485 Gt CO2 for fossil fuels, and 125 for LUCF, with an additional 45 GtCO2 after 2100 assuming continued exponential decline.
The purpose
of the «social cost
of carbon» (SCC) estimates presented here is to allow agencies to incorporate the social benefits
of reducing
carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions into cost - benefit analyses
of regulatory actions that impact
cumulative global
emissions.
This appears to me to comport with the «IEO2011 Reference case projects about 1 trillion metric tons
of additional
cumulative energy - related
carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035» that you cited in # 143, which clearly states CO ₂ in the sentence.
Specifically, the IEO2011 projects about 1 trillion metric tons
of additional
cumulative energy - related
carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035 (page 143).
1 ppm CO2 = 2.12 Gt C (CDIAC) 2.12 Gt C = 7.76 Gt CO2 (C to CO2 ratio
of 3.67, ThinkProgress) thus 1 ppm CO2 = 7.76 Gt CO2 «1 trillion metric tons
of additional
cumulative energy - related
carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035» (IEO2011, p. 143) = 129 ppm
of additional CO2 (divide 1,000 Gt CO2 by 7.76)
Each molecule
of carbon dioxide, which is the most important long - lived manmade greenhouse gas, can remain in the atmosphere for as many as 1,000 years, making it more urgent to cut
emissions in the near future, or face continued
cumulative warming for centuries to come.
The
Carbon Majors website is based on ground - breaking research on 90 entities (investor - owned, state - owned, and government - run fossil fuel and cement producers) that are responsible for producing the fuels that have resulted in 63 percent
of the global
cumulative emissions of industrial
carbon dioxide and methane between 1751 and 2010.
Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions after 2012 are 780 gigatonnes CO2 (Gt CO2), which is well within the IPCC's budget
of 1,010 GtCO2 for maintaining a 66 % likelihood
of keeping warming below 2 °C.