To compute
cumulative emissions over a period given a linear change, i.e. a constant yearly increment, it's necessary to use the sum of an arithmetic progression.
The difference between the harmonized and unharmonized scenarios for
cumulative emissions over the 2000 — 2050 period in total CO2 equivalent emissions is expected to be 1 to 2 %, except for the RCP6 scenario, which has a difference of 5 % (Meinshausen et al. 2011b).
In general, if
the cumulative emissions over the duration of the emissions floor are small compared with the overall emissions, then the floor is not particularly important.
If
the cumulative emissions over the duration of the floor are a large fraction of the cumulative total, then the level of the floor is a crucial determinant of peak warming.
Where would you put the UK if you measured
its cumulative emissions over the last hundred years, total or per capita?
But a carbon tax that increases over time at a persistent and predictable rate would minimize the expected economic cost of achieving any climate target (targets that depend, given the way the climate system works, on
cumulative emissions over many decades).
Not exact matches
«The average per capita resource use in wealthy countries is 5 to 10 times higher than in developing countries, and the developed countries are responsible for
over three quarters of
cumulative greenhouse gas
emissions from 1850 to 2000.»
Extrapolating from their forest study, the researchers estimate that
over this century the warming induced from global soil loss, at the rate they monitored, will be «equivalent to the past two decades of carbon
emissions from fossil fuel burning and is comparable in magnitude to the
cumulative carbon losses to the atmosphere due to human - driven land use change during the past two centuries.»
Millar et al. wrote the confusing sentence: «in the mean CMIP5 response
cumulative emissions do not reach 545GtC until after 2020, by which time the CMIP5 ensemble - mean human - induced warming is
over 0.3 °C warmer than the central estimate for human - induced warming to 2015».
In the New Policies Scenario,
cumulative CO2
emissions over the next 25 years amount to three - quarters of the total from the past 110 years, leading to a long - term average temperature rise of 3.5 °C.
Drawing on experience building a customer base for various products
over many years, Clark sees efforts to curb
emissions of greenhouse gases as a solution that — because of the long - term and
cumulative nature of warming risks — is offered well ahead of public recognition of the problem (truly disruptive changes to conditions and resources humans depend on).
Holding concentrations or temperature (more remotely) to a particular target therefore means limiting
cumulative emissions of, say, carbon
over time... a limited amount of time if we are talking about an iterative approach, and
over a long period of time if we are talking about reducing the likelihood of some very nasty consequences well after we (but not our grandchildren — if we are lucky enough to have some) are gone.
Clear decrease in average rainfall
over Central America as a consequence of 21st century climate change, depending on the height of
cumulative greenhouse gas
emissions.
This analysis focused on the relationship between
cumulative CO2
emissions budgets and the odds of staying below 2 °C of warming, and thus had the important side effect of establishing
cumulative budgets (in this case
over the 2000 - 2050 period) as the best predictors of success for any given global
emissions pathway.
They argue that keeping the most likely warming due to CO2 alone to 2 °C will require us to limit
cumulative CO2
emissions over the period 1750 — 2500 to 1 trillion tonnes of carbon.
It's the
cumulative total CO2
emissions over 150 years.
A carbon budget is the
cumulative amount of carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions permitted
over a period of time to keep within a certain temperature threshold.
By aggregating savings since 2008, this equates to a
cumulative 8,178,000 tonnes of carbon
emissions that have been avoided
over the entire period.
They could cut
cumulative carbon dioxide
emissions by 34 billion metric tons, more than the total
emissions from fossil fuels in this country
over six years.
A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human - induced global warming and
cumulative carbon
emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to
emissions over shorter periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker.
Consider two
emission pathways, both with a
cumulative total of 1 TtC, but one with a decaying
emissions floor, and one with no
emissions floor: the pathway without an
emissions floor will cause a temperature peak earlier than the pathway with the decaying floor, as the
emissions floor causes
emissions to be emitted
over a longer time period.
Second, we investigate whether the
cumulative emissions metric still holds for a class of
emission pathways that do not assume that all
emissions can be mitigated
over the coming centuries.
We also find that, for large
cumulative totals in particular,
cumulative metrics based on integrations
over smaller time periods, such as 2010 — 2050, do not correlate with peak warming as well as
cumulative emissions to a given date near the time of peak warming.
In each panel, we plot likelihood profiles
over each other for every
emission pathway with a
cumulative total from 1750 to 2200 within 1 % of the stated
cumulative total.
Despite this higher
cumulative total, the green curve has a higher peak warming than the yellow curve because its
emissions are put into the atmosphere
over a shorter time period.
Cumulative emission targets represent the sum of emissions over time, and therefore these cumulative emissions could be distributed over time in a numbe
Cumulative emission targets represent the sum of
emissions over time, and therefore these
cumulative emissions could be distributed over time in a numbe
cumulative emissions could be distributed
over time in a number of ways.
=== > The continuous growth of
cumulative CO2
emissions over the entire span since 1850 has likely zero correlation with the constant acceleration / deceleration of natural climate temperature trends - CO2's impact on the trends is demonstrably minimal
«In our mor recent global model simulations the ocean heat - uptake is slower than previously estimated, the ocean uptake of carbon is weaker, feedbacks from the land system as temperature rises are stronger,
cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases
over the century are higher, and offsetting cooling from aerosol
emissions is lower.
Reductions in some short - lived human - induced
emissions that contribute to warming, such as black carbon (soot) and methane, could reduce some of the projected warming
over the next couple of decades, because, unlike carbon dioxide, these gases and particles have relatively short atmospheric lifetimes.The amount of warming projected beyond the next few decades is directly linked to the
cumulative global
emissions of heat - trapping gases and particles.
The recent U.S. contribution to annual global
emissions is about 18 %, but the U.S. contribution to
cumulative global
emissions over the last century is much higher.
> If 100 companies commit to doubling energy productivity by the year 2030,
over 170 million metric tons of
cumulative GHG
emissions could be reduced.
Over the entire study period,
cumulative emission reductions total 6.4 billion metric tons.
Overall, although natural gas is a non-renewable fossil fuel that emits carbon dioxide, the
cumulative emissions saved by fuel switching
over the next decade from coal to natural gas are likely to prove far cheaper than the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in future decades.
If the growth rate is brought to zero linearly
over the next 15 years, the Chinese
emission rate curve looks like the lower (blue) curve and would have lower
cumulative emissions than the abrupt scenario even if there are no reductions in
emission rate beyond 2030.
The AEO 2017 Reference case features marginally lower
emissions than AEO 2016 (a
cumulative decrease of 1 percent between 2017 and 2030), and features 2050
emissions over four times higher than is recommended by climate scientists (see Figure 5).
In addition to it's focus on temperature increase, the report also suggests the use of
cumulative carbon
emissions over time as a valuable metric for linking
emissions to impacts.
However, for such an ambitious target as 1.5 C, 0.3 C can make a substantial difference when calculating how much remaining CO2 we can still emit without pushing us
over 1.5 C of warming when the remaining budget is calculated by simply subtracting off estimates of
cumulative emissions to date from the ESM - based budgets for 1.5 C relative to preindustrial (i.e. the horizontal difference between the cross and the vertical dashed black line in the figure above).
«Even for a total of 500 Gt C
cumulative emissions, which is only slightly above the present - day value, the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is affected
over tens of thousands of years (Fig. 4).
Because all 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios — except Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), which leads to the total radiative forcing of greenhouse gases of 2.6 W m − 2 in 2100 — imply that
cumulative carbon
emission will exceed 1,000 Gt in the twenty - first century, our results suggest that anthropogenic interference will make the initiation of the next ice age impossible
over a time period comparable to the duration of previous glacial cycles.»
The majority of the world's people live at what would be considered desperate poverty levels in developed countries, the average per capita material and energy use in developed countries is higher than in developing countries by a factor of 5 to 10 [25], and the developed countries are responsible for
over three quarters of
cumulative greenhouse gas
emissions from 1850 to 2000 [85].
Climate change results from the
cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases all
over the world, because the gases stay in the atmosphere for a century or more.