The study reports that the developing and least - developed economies — representing 80 percent of humanity — accounted for 73 % of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41 % of global emissions and only 23 % of global
cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century.
Cumulative emissions since 1870 and warming relative to the period 1861 — 80.
We construct an idealised future emissions pathway (dashed; left hand axis) that declines linearly from 2020 to zero in 2055, with
cumulative emissions since the start of 2015 ~ 880bn tonnes of CO2.
Looking at just the 2010 numbers, for example, they show that the United States, with its exceptionally large share of the global population of people with incomes above the $ 20 per day development threshold (capacity), as well as the world's largest share of
cumulative emissions since 1990 (responsibility), is the nation with the largest share (33.1 percent) of the global RCI.
Mark — What are your thoughts about the analysis by Ramanathan and Feng (PNAS, Sept 17,2008: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0803838105), in which they calculate the committed warming of
cumulative emissions since the pre-industrial era as in the region of 2.4 °C (with a confidence interval of 1.4 °C to 4.3 °C), based on calculating the equilibrium temperature if GHG concentrations are held at 2005 levels into the future.
Although the U.S., Europe and other developed countries have contributed 77 percent of
the cumulative emissions since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, developing nations were responsible for 73 percent of the total growth in 2004 alone.
Not exact matches
Cumulative emissions of CO2
since 1870 are set to reach 2015 billion tonnes in 2013 — with 70 per cent caused by burning fossil fuels and 30 per cent from deforestation and other land - use changes.
The United States is the second biggest emitter of carbon dioxide worldwide (and has contributed, with Europe, 52 % of the share of
cumulative carbon
emissions since industrialization).
Instead, what's important is the
cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)--
since a single molecule of CO2 can linger in the atmosphere for as long as 1,000 years — emitted
since the dawn of the industrial era.
It's a big job, but it's one that has to be done anyway,
since if the whole world tries to pull itself into prosperity by burning carbon at the rate the US does, then we run out of coal even at the highest estimates by 2100, and you wind up with no fossil energy and the hellish climate you get from 5000 gigatonnes
cumulative emission.
The cap was tightened primarily because actual CO2
emissions in the region
since 2009 have been roughly 35 % below the
cumulative cap.
Responsibility, by which we mean contribution to the climate problem, is similarly defined as
cumulative emissions (
since some agreed starting year) excluding
emissions that correspond to consumption below the development threshold.
IPCC AR5 summarizes the scientific literature and estimates that
cumulative carbon dioxide
emissions related to human activities need to be limited to 1 trillion tonnes C (1000 PgC)
since the beginning of the industrial revolution if we are to have a likely chance of limiting warming to 2 °C.
Solomon argued a couple of years ago that
cumulative carbon
emissions are the best way of assessing climate risk,
since they avoid problems such as time lags that mess with other measures, such as atmospheric concentrations.
Following these informal discussions, delegates agreed on text stating that limiting the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2
emissions alone with a probability range of greater than 33 %, 50 %, and 66 %, to less than 2ºC
since the period 1861 - 1880, will require
cumulative CO2
emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1560 GtC, 0 and about 1210 GtC, and 0 and about 1000 GtC.
Regarding text stating that limiting warming from anthropogenic CO2
emissions alone to likely less than 2 °C
since 1861 - 1880 requires
cumulative emissions to stay below 1000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Saudi Arabia urged using 1850 for consistency, to which the CLAs responded that some model simulations only begin in 1860, which delegates agreed to reflect in a footnote.
Since only half of what we emit «remains» in the atmosphere, this means we would need to reduce CO2
emissions by a
cumulative 1,000 Gt..
This ends up changing estimates of
cumulative carbon
emissions since the pre-industrial period, but given the large uncertainties involved the authors caution against using these revisions to draw conclusions about remaining carbon budgets associated with staying within the 2C or 1.5 C warming targets.
By aggregating savings
since 2008, this equates to a
cumulative 8,178,000 tonnes of carbon
emissions that have been avoided over the entire period.
Since the records show that up to this time the CO2 concentration has not increased «more than linearly with
cumulative CO2
emissions» as you state, I'm curious why you think that will be the case in the future.
But interpretation isn't easy,
since internal variability and forcings (natural and anthropogenic) other than CO2 can move individual points up and down on the temperature axis without any movement left or right along the
cumulative CO2
emissions axis.
But hailing the carbon saved by the US
since 2005, while ignoring what it added before that would fail to acknowledge the
cumulative nature of the carbon
emissions burden on the atmosphere.
=== > The continuous growth of
cumulative CO2
emissions over the entire span
since 1850 has likely zero correlation with the constant acceleration / deceleration of natural climate temperature trends - CO2's impact on the trends is demonstrably minimal
=== > Finally, as this accompanying chart of the empirical evidence indicates, while the per cent change in
cumulative CO2
emissions dropped in a quasi-continuous pattern
since 1979, the RSS annual global temperatures anomalies instead follow an opposite increasing trend.
It states that to stand a good chance (a probability of 66 percent or more) of limiting warming to less than 2 °C
since the mid-19th century will require
cumulative CO2
emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay under 800 gigatons of carbon.
Since this is a transient response, it is less steep a slope than the
cumulative emissions.
Truth n ° 2 57 % of the
cumulative anthropic
emissions since the beginning of the Industrial revolution have been emitted
since 1997, but the temperature has been stable.
The percentage of
cumulative emissions might be somewhat different, but that would be quibbling
since what matters is what is in the atmosphere.
«37 % of the
cumulative anthropic
emissions since the beginning of the Industrial revolution have been emitted
since 1997,...»» See point (c) above.
Hence we can say that no CO2 effect on the temperatures has been observed
since 1978 despite an increase of 263 % of the
cumulative anthropic
emissions (263 % = 402 Gt - C / 153 Gt - C).
Since CO2 lasts in the atmosphere for a very long time (100's to 1000's of years) it is the total
cumulative amount of
emissions that matter.
«Per NOAA, Climate Impact of
Cumulative CO2
Emissions Since 1880 Approaching Nil Main Climate FactCheck: Is Current Global Ocean Warming Unprecedented?
«UK Climate Agency Confirms: Huge
Cumulative CO2 Growth Has Little Impact On Long - Term Climate Change, Warming Main Per NOAA, Climate Impact of
Cumulative CO2
Emissions Since 1880 Approaching Nil»
If we assume that fossil fuel
emissions increase by 3 % per year, typical of the past decade and of the entire period
since 1950,
cumulative fossil fuel
emissions will reach 10000 Gt C in 118 years.
The U.S. Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center database pegs
cumulative global
emissions since 1751 at 1,323 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (1,450 GtCO2e including methane).
Limiting the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2
emissions alone with a probability of > 33 %, > 50 %, and > 66 % to less than 2 °C
since the period 1861 — 1880, will require
cumulative CO2
emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1570 GtC (5760 GtCO2), 0 and about 1210 GtC (4440 GtCO2), and 0 and about 1000 GtC (3670 GtCO2)
since that period, respectively.
(Go here to view maximum hourly precipitation incidents versus global
cumulative CO2
emission tonnes
since 1950.)
Cumulative emissions from 1854 to 2010 traced to historic fossil fuel production by the largest investor - owned and state - owned oil, gas, and coal producers, in percent of global industrial CO2 and methane
emissions since 1751.
Keeping global average temperatures to 1.4 C would mean
cumulative global
emissions couldn't exceed around 600bn tonnes of carbon (~ 2,200 bn tonnes of CO2)
since pre-industrial times, rather than 850bn tonnes (~ 3,100 bn tonnes of CO2) for 2C, the paper says.