These higher forecasted returns are due partly to higher current dividend yields, but also to less risk of a tumbling CAPE ratio in the years ahead, paired with expectations of
currency appreciation in countries with recently depressed currencies.
We are going to see strong resistance to
currency appreciation in the future and increases in subsidies in many nations — first, second and third tier currencies.
The point which Ben very appropriately emphasizes is that unmanaged secular stagnation in one place is contagious — that a higher level of saving over investment leading to low interest rates in one place, leads to current account surplus, leads to a capital outflow, which then leads to currency depreciation, leads to
currency appreciation in other places, and leads therefore to spreading low demand and low interest rates everywhere.
Not exact matches
An
appreciation in the
currency could hurt the bank's inflation targets and prompt changes to its monetary policy.
The PBoC described the devaluation as small compared with the yuan's
appreciation in recent years or the depreciation of the
currencies of its economic rivals
in Asia and Europe.
However, some economists believe that given the economic growth
in the region — which the ECB foresees at 2.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)
in 2018 — consumers will be able to sustain the
appreciation in the
currency and the ECB won't be forced to stimulate the economy.
America Movil attributed a decline
in sales to the peso's
appreciation against other
currencies.
«The rapid
appreciation of Bitcoin and others is somewhat surprising
in light of some developments that seemingly would have put downward pressure on the
currency,» another group of Morgan Stanley analysts wrote, citing the SEC's rejection of a Bitcoin ETF, among other factors.
Like Japan
in the 1980s, China's export - driven economic success and high savings rate needs a relief valve if it is to avoid rapid
appreciation of its
currency, the renminbi, the exchange rate of which is carefully managed.
Over the longer term, we expect increasing productivity should also result
in a broad
appreciation in emerging - market
currencies.
So your point that the
appreciation in currency doesn't matter for competitiveness is incorrect, the reasons for
appreciation matters.
You may disagree with Krugman's analysis, but it's a little disingenuous to try to denigrate and dismiss Thomas Mulcair's economic ideas when they're based on Nobel prize winning work
in economics (the intellectual case, that is; the factual case that this phenomenon is occurring today,
in Canada, is purely a question of whether the
appreciation of our
currency is based on the oil and gas boom and whether a high dollar results
in lower exports
in other sectors, both of which you seem to have admitted are accurate.)
Secondly, as guest and I have been trying to point out if the
appreciation in currency for Japan / Germany is due to increased demand for there manufacturing exports this is not the same thing as an
appreciation caused by increased demand for oil exports.
We like selected EM debt for income and potential price
appreciation amid low inflation and subdued
currency volatility
in the emerging world.
But [the increase
in commodity prices] is just the beginning of the story, accounting for about one - half of the
appreciation of our
currency over the past decade.
When you invest
in Bitcoin (or gold, or the price of oil, or other commodities, or any other
currency, or fine art), you are betting the farm on price
appreciation alone.
Despite stronger than expected growth
in the second half, the central bank has actually reduced its outlook for the next two years, saying that's when the current
appreciation of the
currency will show up
in growth figures.
An
appreciation of the U.S. dollar against most other
currencies largely explained the fall
in travel costs
in 2015.
CAPITALIZING ON GLOBAL BONDS &
CURRENCY OPPORTUNITIES Templeton Global Bond Fund seeks current income with capital
appreciation and growth of income by investing predominantly
in bonds of governments and government agencies around the world.
Since Canada is a major exporter of many commodities, an increase
in prices means that the world is prepared to pay more for the Canadian dollars ultimately required to purchase them, thus creating an
appreciation in our
currency.
It seems more likely Beijing would consider taking over foreign businesses, especially given its largest US$ 1.9 trillion foreign exchange reserve
in the world, and the
appreciation of its
currency by 9 % y - o - y against the US dollar, or 40 % y - o - y against the Canadian dollar, or over 20 % against both
currencies since July 21, 2005 when the Chinese central bank allowed its RMB to float.
In recent months digital
currencies like Bitcoin have caught the attention of the investment world due to their rapid price
appreciation and potentially disruptive technologies.
Around 95 per cent of the
appreciation in the
currency from its lows
in April 2001 has occurred
in overnight trading.
In contrast to the strength in volumes, the value of total imports declined by around 5 per cent over the year to the December quarter, as the currency appreciation has lowered Australian dollar import price
In contrast to the strength
in volumes, the value of total imports declined by around 5 per cent over the year to the December quarter, as the currency appreciation has lowered Australian dollar import price
in volumes, the value of total imports declined by around 5 per cent over the year to the December quarter, as the
currency appreciation has lowered Australian dollar import prices.
«From a long - term view, the renminbi remains a strong
currency,» Ms. Zhang said, adding that «
in the future, the renminbi will be back on the
appreciation track.»
An
appreciation of the exchange rate means that: the increase
in the domestic
currency price of commodity exports will be less than the increase
in world commodity prices; the income of the other tradable sector will fall; and real income gains flow to the broader economy via the associated decline
in the price of imports.
Domestic inflationary pressures, associated with higher wages and incomes, will lead to higher inflation for non-tradable goods and services but, at the same time, the gradual pass through of the initial exchange rate
appreciation will lead to lower inflation for tradable goods and services (whose prices
in foreign
currency terms depend to a significant extent on global considerations).
«The PBOC will have to choose between allowing significant
currency appreciation and continuing to accumulate foreign assets,» Mark Williams, the firm's chief Asia economist, wrote
in a research note Monday.
While the magnitude of this fall partly reflects the
appreciation of the
currency, it also reflects ongoing price declines associated with global overproduction and high productivity growth continuing
in this sector.
Other measures, such as exchange controls, are also being used to stem the
appreciation of local
currencies, with the authorities
in Thailand announcing
in October a package of measures, including suspension of interest payments to overseas holders of Thai cheque and savings accounts and a deposit ceiling of 300 million baht (US$ 7.5 million) per account.
Overall CPI inflation was a more modest 1.6 per cent over the year, held down by weakness
in the prices of internationally tradable goods flowing from the
appreciation of the
currency.
Over recent years countries
in Asia have been intervening heavily (buying US dollars and selling their own
currencies)
in order to prevent an
appreciation of their
currencies.
The
appreciation of the Australian dollar has been less marked against the euro, and the
currencies of a number of countries that Australia competes with
in international markets.
As noted, Asian
currencies are important
in the TWI and the
appreciation against these
currencies accounts for about two - thirds of the 18 per cent rise
in the TWI over the past year.
Both the US and Europe may choose print more to slow the
appreciation of their respective
currency, and
in turn, shockwaves will be felt around the world.
While we believe that temporary factors have amplified the drop
in services inflation, the ECB will likely worry about potential second - round effects of lower oil prices and
currency appreciation on the price of some other (non-energy) goods and services, including on Non-Energy Industrial Goods inflation which fell sharply, from 0.7 % to 0.3 %
in February.
By downplaying the euro's strength, they suggested any potential deflationary effects caused by the rise
in the single
currency are likely to be limited, barring an outsized further
appreciation.
You'll notice that many of the YTD returns are different when adjusted for local
currency appreciation or depreciation and the relative devaluation of various emerging market
currencies is another theme that has come to the fore
in 2014.
But that is what an
appreciation in the price of gold is based on; paper money has to fall
in value, due to a lack of confidence
in the economic stability of the government of the country that issues the
currency.
But
in the absence of any suggestion that the
currency's
appreciation would delay a tapering of bond purchases, the single
currency's rally — which by the end of August had taken it above US$ 1.20 for the first time since the start of 2015 — resumed, following a brief pause
in the run - up to the ECB meeting.
As a result, the real effective exchange rate of Spain has depreciated by around 7 per cent since 2008,
in contrast to an
appreciation of 1 per cent
in Germany — an improvement achieved despite Spain's inability to devaluate its own
currency.
«If you look at the S&P / TSX Composite Index, it had an annual compound return (including dividends) of 8.9 per cent between 2001 and 2010 while the S&P 500 had an annual compound return of 3.0 per cent, or -2.3 per cent
in Canadian dollars given our
currency's
appreciation during that period,» says Dimock.
That was particularly dramatic
in 2015, when US and international equities posted only modest returns
in their native
currencies but netted close to 20 % for Canadians on the strength of the
currency appreciation.
The International Air Transport Association says average fares around the world as reported
in U.S. dollars fell about 12 per cent last year, or by four to 4.5 per cent adjusted for distortions caused by the strong
appreciation in the U.S.
currency.
Depending on which countries you include
in the analysis, the expected real exchange rate
appreciation in a basket of emerging market
currencies should be about 50 bps annually.
In addition, their risk - to - reward profile is enhanced by declining
currency volatility and a positive long - term outlook for
currency appreciation.
Because EM countries are much earlier
in their growth cycle than the U.S., we anticipate continued
appreciation of EM
currencies in the years to come (see Figure 3).
The reason this is important is that if the dollar strengthens while you hold a Swiss stock, the change
in currency rates will cause you to receive fewer dollars for the Swiss francs — and this can turn a paper profit from stock
appreciation into a net loss.
That has been a benefit for Canadians who hold US equities: not only did the stocks deliver huge returns
in their local
currency in 2013, but we got a further boost thanks to the
appreciation of the US dollar.
If the U.S. dollar appreciated against our loonie, then the investor would benefit not only from any increase
in value
in the individual stocks, but the U.S.
currency appreciation as well.