Ome would expect that our mathematical models would by now be able to faithfully reproduce
current average global temperatures, but this is not so — the IPCC models all exaggerate their predictions, also indicating a lack of understanding and validation of climate models.
A layperson can easily look up previous inter-glacial periods and see they ALL had higher temperatures, higher sea levels and a variety of CO2 levels (which had NO effect on global warming) ALL previous I - G periods became significantly warmer than
our current average global temperatures, with sea levels ranging from 6mtrs to 12mtrs (20ft to 40ft) higher than today.
I am particularly interested in how
current average global temperatures relate to those of the past.
Although
the current average global temperature from Earth's current circular orbit is 58 ° F (14.4 ° C), it would rise to 73 ° F (22.8 °C) with an orbital eccentricity of 0.3.
The difference between
our current average global temperature and the most recent Ice Age is only 5 degrees Celsius.
Not exact matches
There is a direct connection between the
current changes in the world's atmosphere and the rise in
average temperature; this is known as
global warming or the «greenhouse effect».
If
global warming continues unabated, by 2100,
average global temperatures could rise by 4.25 degrees Celsius compared with
current temperatures.
About 460 million years ago, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere ranged somewhere between 14 and 22 times the
current level, and the
average global temperature was about 5 °C higher than it is now.
For comparison, the
global temperature of the most recent Ice Age was only about five degrees C below the
current average.
Current national commitments to cut greenhouse gases would likely allow
average global temperatures to rise by 3.5 °C by 2100, suggest new modeling results released today.
According to one estimate, nations»
current mitigation policies would still result in a 3.6 - degree C increase in
average global temperature by the end of the century.
So the report notes that the
current «pause» in new
global average temperature records since 1998 — a year that saw the second strongest El Nino on record and shattered warming records — does not reflect the long - term trend and may be explained by the oceans absorbing the majority of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases as well as the cooling contributions of volcanic eruptions.
The
average global temperature for 2015 is well ahead of last year, the
current titleholder of warmest year.
Even so, the IPCC estimates above indicate: 1) Total Net Atmospheric Carbon Emissions to 2100 will amount to ~ 2050 PgC (or more) on
current Trends, 2) A BAU projected estimate would push CO2 to ~ 952 ppm by 2100 (or more), and 3)
Global average temperature increase / anomaly would be as high as ~ 6.8 C by 2100
The State of the Climate November 2015 report noted that in order for 2015 to not become the warmest year in the 136 - year period of record, the December
global temperature would have to be at least 0.81 °C (1.46 °F) below the 20th century
average — or 0.24 °C (0.43 °F) colder than the
current record low December
temperature of 1916.
Current theory says there will steady increase in
average global temperatures over the longer term (30 + years).
The
global average temperature anomaly was adjusted by data managers [different groups followed differently and they don't match]-- earlier data adjusted downwards and
current data upwards.
*
Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long - term (1961 - 1990)
average of 14.0 °C; * There is a 60 % probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the
current warmest year (1998 was +0.52 °C above the long - term 1961 - 1990
average).
Except
current theory does not say that there will steady increase in
average global temperatures.
How about this as a way to encourage scientists and the media to get to the point: Ask a list of top climate researchers to predict the
average global temperature and the consequent effects on
current species» ability to survive in the year 2100.
It seems to me, in my lay understanding, that climate change is likely to be expressed as increased
average global temperature plus increased mechanical energy in oceanic and atmospheric
currents.
In other words, the
current trend of negative AO should introduce a cold bias in the
global average temperature.
I am wondering why the
current (2007)
global temperatures (rolling
average) are below the entire envelope of scenarios given in that graph.
why don't you compare the IPCC 2001
global temperature rise predictions to
current global means (year
averages or rolling
averages — whatever you want).
But an April report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finds that the
current trajectory would translate to a rise in
average global temperatures in the 3.7 - 4.8 degrees Celsius range (6.7 - 8.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century.
From
current trends, we are heading for a
global average temperature increase between 3 °C and 5 °C by the end of the century.
The
average global temperature is modulated by convection
currents.
Their work is a big step forward in helping to solve the greatest puzzle of
current climate change research — why
global average surface
temperatures, while still on an upward trend, have risen more slowly in the past 10 to fifteen years than previously.
All this
Global Warming if you plot it on a graph with the vertical y - axis incremented in whole degrees you could free hand a straight line starting from the end of the Little Ice Age all the way to the current day and see there has been no dramatic global average temperature change since the turn of the 19th ce
Global Warming if you plot it on a graph with the vertical y - axis incremented in whole degrees you could free hand a straight line starting from the end of the Little Ice Age all the way to the
current day and see there has been no dramatic
global average temperature change since the turn of the 19th ce
global average temperature change since the turn of the 19th century.
At
current energy imbalance the
global ocean
average temperature will rise 0.2 C.
And even if the
current 18 - year trend were to end, it would still take nearly 25 years for
average global temperature figures to reflect the change, said Michaels, who has a Ph.D. in ecological climatology and spent three decades as a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia.
But the
current rise in Arctic
temperature is due not to changes in
global average temperature but to changes in regional weather patterns.
However they failed to realise that
Global warming is an on / off phenomena and sp had no answer to the
current constant
average temperature, They failed to understand the 1940 singularity, so they did not have a clear view of the processes at work.
But linear regression is known to give the best possible unbiased estimate of its parameters for any linear function of the data — if a regression can not give a reliable enough estimate of the
global average temperature, it seems inevitable that the
current method must be worse.
The Paris Agreement's long - term goal is to limit
global warming to 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial
temperatures, or about 0.5 to 1.0 degrees C (0.9 to 1.8 degrees F) above the
current global average temperature.
The bulwark claim of the anthropogenic
global warm (AGW) hypothesis and the objective of the stick are that
current global annual
average temperatures are the warmest ever.
On
current trends, the IPCC finds, emissions will continue to soar and
global average temperatures will rise between 2.5 and 7.8 degrees Celsius before the century is out, depending on the pace of economic growth and the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2.
Current computer models can faithfully simulate many of the important aspects of the
global climate system, such as changes in
global average temperature over many decades; the march of the seasons on large spatial scales; and how the climate responds to large - scale forcing, like a large volcanic eruption.
However, over long time periods, the variation of the
global average temperature with CO2 concentration depends on various factors such as the placement of the continents on Earth, the functionality of ocean
currents, the past history of the climate, the orientation of the Earth's orbit relative to the Sun, the luminosity of the Sun, the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere, volcanic action, land clearing, biological evolution, etc..
To blame the
current warming on humans, there was a perceived need to «prove» that the
current global average temperature is higher than it was at any other time in recent history (the last few thousand years).
Current global average surface air
temperature is warmer than that for all but a small fraction of the past 11,300 years.
Based on
current knowledge, however, it appears that achieving a high probability of limiting
global average temperature rise to 2C will require that the increase in greenhouse - gas concentrations as well as all the other warming and cooling influences on
global climate in the year 2100, as compared with 1750, should add up to a net warming no greater than what would be associated with a CO2 concentration of about 400 parts per million (ppm).
Interesting that they state: Peter Stott, Head of Climate Attribution at the Met Office, said: «Our research shows
current global average temperatures are highly unlikely in a world without human influence on the climate.
The Paris Agreement committed countries to addressing the «significant gap» between their
current pledges and «aggregate emission pathways consistent with holding the increase in the
global average temperature to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels,» while also «pursuing efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels.»
In context, the
current drought emergency has taken place as
global temperatures hit near 1.2 degrees Celsius hotter than 1880s
averages.
However you slice it, lolwot, there is a
current «pause» (or «standstill») in the warming of the «globally and annually
averaged land and sea surface
temperature anomaly» (used by IPCC to measure «
global warming»), despite unabated human GHG emissions and CO2 levels (Mauna Loa) reaching record levels.
Ultimately, the latest scientific understanding of climate change allied with
current emission trends and a commitment to «limiting
average global temperature increases to below 4C above pre-industrial levels», demands a radical reframing of both the climate change agenda, and the economic characterization of contemporary society.
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate of rise of
temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates of change of
temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any
current climate; (5)
global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The
global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
Try as I might, I can not in my wildest fantasise persuade myself that a
Global Average Temperature of (say) 289.1 K (if such a thing even truly exists) represents our
current Paradise and that any move to (say) 290.7 K will lead us to death destruction and extinction.
The bulwark claim of the anthropogenic
global warming (AGW) hypothesis and the objective of the stick are that
current global annual
average temperatures are the warmest ever.