To hold global warming in check requires reducing
current emission levels by as much as 70 percent by 2050, compared with 2010 levels, and nearly eliminating such pollution by 2100.
To hold China and India to
their current emissions levels, the «fair» thing to do would be for us to cut our emissions by 80 % immediately.
According to analysts at Carbon Brief,
current emission levels mean the world has just over four years at
current emission levels before warming above 1.5 C is virtually guaranteed.
This is true because most mainstream scientists have concluded that the world must reduce total global emissions by at the very least 60 to 80 percent below existing levels to stabilize GHG atmospheric concentrations at minimally safe atmospheric GHG concentrations and the United States is a huge emitter both in historical terms and in comparison to
current emissions levels of other high emitting nations.
Yet, some low - emitting developing countries can make a credible case that
their current emissions levels are still below their fair share of safe global emissions.
In the worst case considered — which Wehner notes is not the worst case possible since
current emissions levels are already higher — hot temperatures that recently were 20 - year events will become annual occurrences.
Sulfate aerosols wash out pretty quickly, so their current atmospheric concentration (and the resulting negative forcing) is mainly determined by
the current emissions levels.
That cap might have been a little lower, or possibly even a little higher than it's
current emissions level.
Absolute caps in total carbon emissions, 90 % less than
current emission levels, need to be accepted in every sector of the economy.
Accepting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios provide us with a global carbon budget that will be consumed in 10 — 20 years at
current emissions levels, and entail very significant levels of risk.
At
current emission levels, according to the Max Planck Institute, a leading climate research center, temperatures are expected to soar to an average of 114 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050 and 122 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, along with more intense heat waves and less time between them, throughout the Middle East — and, to a lesser but still significant degree, in North Africa.
Not exact matches
State government agencies have provided baseline numbers for 1990
emission levels and expected 2020
levels based on
current trends.
As compensation, the transport secretary said the government would push for a European cap on aviation
emissions, set below
current levels.
But if
emissions of CH2Cl2 are held to
current levels, healing of the ozone hole would be delayed only 5 years or so, the team finds.
Still, if we begin to apply a variety of CO2 reduction technologies in tandem,
emissions can be held close to their
current level, instead of doubling over the next 50 years, argues Stephen Pacala of Princeton University.
According to figures from the World Bank, the Chinese economy's carbon intensity — the amount of CO2
emissions relative to the size of economic output — has decreased by almost 70 per cent over the past three decades (see «Peak planet: Carbon dioxide intensity «-RRB-, and a further 20 per cent reduction from
current levels is promised by 2020.
Noting that the United States is already on a path to cutting
emissions 17 percent below 2005
levels by 2020, the plan argues that additional action «represents a substantial acceleration of the
current pace of greenhouse gas reductions.»
Even if
emissions were immediately reduced enough to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at
current levels, climate change would continue for centuries.
Our
current emissions trajectory locks Earth into a carbon dioxide
level of at least 450 ppm, Ralph Keeling says.
If
emissions continue at
current levels, he predicts that by 2080, 39 percent of the world's lizard populations will have vanished, corresponding to a 20 percent loss in species.
«Less than two decades ago, the ratio of human to natural
emissions was 0.59 to 1, or less than half the
current level,» Schlesinger said.
For a 2014 Scientific American article, «False Hope,» I calculated that to compensate for the drop to zero sulfur
emissions by the end of the century, we have to meet a CO2 target of about 405 ppm — just slightly above
current levels.
According to the commission's own impact assessment, the union is on track to meet the
current target: Under a «business - as - usual» scenario, total greenhouse gas
emissions are already expected to drop by 24 % in 2020 and 32 % in 2030 compared with 1990
levels.
So meeting the new 2025 target would essentially freeze
emissions at the
current level, and the size of that challenge will largely depend on how the economy behaves in the next decade.
Officials in Brussels reportedly fear the European Union will not meet its
current modest target of reducing
emissions to 1990
levels by 2000.
In one,
emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds from human activities would continue at
current levels through 2050.
The report, which also warns of major wildlife extinctions and risks to crops from extreme heat, calls for reducing
emissions 80 percent from
current levels by 2050, which is consistent with the targets in major climate legislation moving through Congress.
Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the
current high
levels of GHG
emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of «common but differentiated responsibilities.»
Some climate models suggest that, at
current CO2
emissions levels, 80 percent of Arctic waters could prove corrosive to clams, pteropods and other species at the base of the polar food chain by 2060, the new statement said.
«If by 2050 we slow deforestation by 50 per cent from
current levels, with the aim of stopping deforestation when we have 50 per cent of the world's tropical forests remaining, this would save the
emission of 50 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere.
By comparison, scenarios for fossil fuel
emissions for the 21st century range from about 600 billion tons (if we can keep total global
emissions at
current levels) to over 2500 billion tons if the world increases its reliance on combustion of coal as economic growth and population increase dramatically.
However, even if we're lucky and the climate sensitivity is just 2 °C for doubled atmospheric CO2, if we continue on our
current emissions path, we will commit ourselves to that amount of warming (2 °C above pre-industrial
levels) within the next 75 years.
How many years of
current emissions would use up the IPCC's carbon budgets for different
levels of warming?
Moderate reductions in
emissions of heat - trapping gases — sufficient to stop global
emissions growth by 2040 and bring
emissions down to half their
current levels by the 2070s — can avoid those paralyzing extremes and limit the expected late - century experience of the average American to about 18 dangerously humid days a year.
He says: «It's not enough to freeze greenhouse gas
emissions at
current levels.
Pardon my ignorance, but we're now halfway through a doubling of CO2 since preindustrial times (the
current 392 ppm divided by sqrt (2) is 277 ppm, right in the 260 - 280 ppm range given by Wikipedia for the
level just before the industrial
emissions began).
For Coral Springs, for example, which appears to be comfortably inland, the high - tide line will encompass about a quarter of the city's population some time in the distant future, if
emissions continue at
current levels through the year 2040.
This isn't news to top climate scientists around the world (see Hadley Center: «Catastrophic» 5 — 7 °C warming by 2100 on
current emissions path) or even to top climate scientists in this country (see US Geological Survey stunner: Sea -
level rise in 2100 will likely «substantially exceed» IPCC projections, SW faces «permanent drying») and certainly not to people who follow the scientific literature, like Climate Progress readers (see Study: Water - vapor feedback is «strong and positive,» so we face «warming of several degrees Celsius»).
Potential annual damages are shown on the county -
level in a scenario in which
emissions of greenhouse gasses continue at
current rates.
The shale gas in recent exploration in the United States, that could meet the domestic demand of the country for natural gas at
current levels of consumption for over 100 years, is extremely negative for the environment because it generates half the carbon
emissions from coal, and pollutes the sheets underground aquifers.
The
current powertrain options are expected to be carried over on the second generation model with updated tuning to improve performance and
emission levels.
In addition, the ARB says this Honda model has lower greenhouse gas
emissions than the fleet average standard required by all cars in 2025, the equivalent of a 50 - percent reduction from
current required
levels.
Cost - effective mitigation pathways to limit warming to 2 °C require reducing
emissions of greenhouse gases by 40 — 70 % below
current levels by 2050.
Based on
current scientific understanding, this requires that global greenhouse gas
emissions need to be reduced by at least 50 % below their 1990
levels by the year 2050.
It would cut
emissions by 85 percent of
current levels by 2050.
And CO2
levels also will begin to drop significantly when the
emissions are cut to a small portion of the
current rate, cuts that may take two or three decades to appear.
Right now the CO2 per unit GDP is so much higher in China than the US that they can grow their economy significantly without increasing
emissions, just by approaching US (let alone European)
CURRENT levels of efficiency.
However, it is important to keep in mind that we might easily more than double it if we really don't make much effort to cut back (I think the
current estimated reserves of fossil fuels would increase CO2 by a factor of like 5 or 10, which would mean a warming of roughly 2 - 3 times the climate sensitivity for doubling CO2 [because of the logarithmic dependence of the resulting warming to CO2
levels]-RRB-... and CO2
levels may be able to fall short of doubling if we really make a very strong effort to reduce
emissions.
In this case, science does tell us what to do (reduce CO2
emissions: we can argue about the amount and rate but this argument should be along the lines: «do we reduce by 70 % or 90 % over
current levels by 2050?).
Yet, as Ashley Ballantyne's work shows,
current vegetation
levels are still soaking up about have the carbon
emissions, even as
emission rates have increased.