This, of course, is because they are merely incrementing machines, reading the inputs (forcings) and doing a linear transform with a lag... and as a result, none of them predicted
the current hiatus in the warming.
The paper being discussed here makes the claim that
the current hiatus in warming is due to the heat going into the Atlantic ocean as the Atlantic ocean is currently in the 30 year cooling phase of it's ~ 60 year warming / cooling cycle.
CMIP5 models also fail to explain
the current hiatus in warming even including natural variation.
Not exact matches
A favourite climate contrarian talking point is that there was a pause or «
hiatus»
in warming from 1998 until the early part of the
current decade.
There is little room left for anthropogenic
warming of other than minor significance The
current hiatus represents a peak
in both the 60 and 960 + / - periodicities, The linked post also forecasts the timing and amplitude of a possible coming cooling.
They relate the
current hiatus period at the surface and a deeper penetration of the
warming into the ocean with changes
in the trade winds on the subtropical Pacific (intensification).
The
warm sea surface temperatures
in the gyres, during
hiatus decades, indicate convergence of near - surface
currents and strong downwelling of heat.
My personal choice would have included drawing the connection between the
current hiatus and the one
in the eighties and nineties but that would have necessitated exposing the fake
warming of the eighties and nineties which they would do everything to hide.
I disagree that the stadium wave can explain the
current cessation of
warming, aka «
hiatus»
in IPCC jargon.
The IPO is also thought to influence global temperature, as the
current hiatus in global
warming has been related to the late 1990's phase change [Meehl et al., 2013; England et al., 2014].
These include claiming that addressing climate change will keep the poor
in «energy poverty»; citing the global
warming «
hiatus» or «pause» to dismiss concerns about climate change; pointing to changes
in the climate hundreds or thousands of years ago to deny that the
current warming is caused by humans; alleging that unmitigated climate change will be a good thing; disputing that climate change is accelerating sea level rise; and denying that climate change is making weather disasters more costly.
If the previous models are unskilled at predicting the
current hiatus in surface
warming and this is really because the
warming has gone into the oceans then exactly how long will this take to come back and bite us
in the bum?
One of the principal issues is the cause of the
hiatus in the
current global
warming trend.»
So the
current hiatus in surface
warming is a transient and global
warming has not gone away: there is a continuing radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere.
The
current hiatus is not the only rime
in history when
warming stood still.
But neither approach evaluates whether the
current understanding of the relationship among radiative forcing, internal variability, and global surface temperature can account for the timing and magnitude of the 1999 — 2008
hiatus in warming.
There is no room left for anthropogenic
warming of other than minor significance The
current hiatus represents a peak
in both the 60 and 960 + / - periodicities, The linked post also forecasts the timing amplitude of a possible coming cooling.
What do you call the mental process which allows a man to say «What's firmly established is that the climate is
warming» while also holding that «There's been a burst of worthy research aimed at figuring out what causes the stutter - steps
in the process — including the
current hiatus / pause / plateau [
in warming] ``?