Even though there has been a lot of commentary around
current high stock valuations against lackluster earnings growth for the S&P 500, it is «neither practical or precise» for an investor to use this as a basis for lowering their exposure to stocks or selling their portfolio.
Not exact matches
Many (including me) believe the reason that both
stock prices and real estate prices are currently trading at historically
high valuation ratios is tied to the Feds
current «experiment» in holding interest rates at almost zero for half a decade and running....
Coupling that lower
valuation on the company's earnings with the much
higher current yield leads to a lot of upside, along with what could be more near - term and long - term income from the
stock.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for
stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already
high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the
current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at
higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
In other words, if a very long - term investor is willing to rely on the notion that
valuations when they sell will match or exceed the unusually
high valuations of the present, that investor can reasonably expect
stocks purchased at
current levels to deliver long - term returns somewhere the range of 8 - 10 %.
The S&P 500 registered a record
high after an advancing half - cycle since 2009 that is historically long - in - the - tooth and already exceeds the
valuation peaks set at every cyclical extreme in history but 2000 on the S&P 500 (across all
stocks,
current median price / earnings, price / revenue and enterprise value / EBITDA multiples already exceed the 2000 extreme).
The
current stock price implies significant profit growth despite increasing competition, negative margins, and worries over cash flow, which brings us to issue # 6, TSLA's sky
high valuation.
With the
stock's
current valuation appearing reasonable, especially relative to the REIT's
high quality, today could be a good time to more closely evaluate STORE.
However, if it were somehow known that rates would * permanently * stay as low as they currently are then
stocks would logically be priced much much
higher than their
current valuations.
With the
stock's
current valuation appearing reasonable, especially relative to the REIT's
high quality, today could be a good time to more closely evaluate STORE.
However, consider the
current environment of the market: most
stocks are at an all - time
high and it is slim pickings to find good
valuations.
As described in my introduction to the concept of the MCTWI, in times of
high valuation your
stock market investments are actually worth less than their
current price.
In this article published in The Australian Roger discusses the
current red flags in the market, will
higher interest rates bring
stock valuations down?
Are the
current large market leaders enjoying
higher stock prices simply because of their position as larger weights in the overall market funds (into which vast sums of money are pouring every month), rather than because they are good profitable companies with fair
valuations?
Once again, Manulife is part of our B - team of top dividend
stocks, in part because its
current yield at 3.4 % is below some of its peers and trades at a slightly
higher valuation.
As described in my introduction to the concept of the MCTWI, in times of
high valuation (like today) your
stock market investments are actually worth less than their
current price.
A
higher current yield compared to the
stock's historical average suggests better
valuation, because dividend yield is
higher when price is lower, all else equal.
The direct cause that most of these estimates point to is
high current valuations of
stocks.
Of course, I'm talking about
current large cap
valuations... While I think market
valuations can & will escalate ever
higher, I'm already struggling with my fair share of individual
stock valuations today.