It «underlines the group's confidence that it can keep improving cash flows even in
the current lower commodity price environment,» Morgan Stanley analyst Menno Sanderse wrote in a report today.
Not exact matches
At the
current price of $ 5.56, we believe the market has overly discounted the effects of the
lower commodity price environment, giving us an opportunity to buy Glencore at a compelling discount to our estimate of intrinsic value.
With respect to companies deleveraging, we will be following up after earnings season with a note on the
current state of select company balance sheets and how sustainable they are given
lower commodity prices.
As the trading volume on
commodities is usually very
low and thus
price gaps often occur, simple volatility calculations based on the
current Highs and
Lows did not give adequate results.
The energy and materials sectors have been the sore spot for the high yield market, given the anxiety over credit quality, as
current low prices in oil and
commodities, along with a Fed increase in rates, may be a cause for concern for future earnings and the cost of capital.
What I can say from a strategic perspective is that 1) I like a purchase of assets at historically
low prices, 2) MFC has some expertise in the
commodity business so this isn't completely outside their playing field, 3) perhaps, worst case, there could be a strategy to purchase the assets in bulk at a distress sale and then sell them off piecemeal for a profit, and 4) while this may be a role of the dice (who knows where gas
prices will be a year from now) MFC is not betting the ranch; the total investment will be about CDN $ 75 million ($ 33 for the outstanding shares, $ 8 million for the warrants, $ 30 million additional investment and I've estimated $ 4 million for transaction costs), or less than 25 % of MFC's
current cash hoard.
In particular, depending mainly on (i) exactly how much abatement might be required over 2019 - 23, (ii) the amount and availability of combined - cycle gas - turbine (CCGT) generation capacity with the required efficiency levels, and (iii) the evolution of
commodity prices between now and 2021, the carbon
price required to plug the supply gap could be
lower or higher than the levels we have imputed from our modelling of the supply - demand dynamics in the EU - ETS over 2019 - 23, and the fuel - switching
price levels implied by
current forward curves.
Brazil also recognizes its
current challenges: historically
low commodity prices, which undermine the country's resource - focused exports; and a currency that has depreciated compared to the U.S. dollar, making it difficult for Brazil and Brazilian businesses to service their debts.