The current rate of global warming, faster than any observed in the geological record, is already having a major effect in many parts of the world in terms of droughts, fires, and storms.
We still don't expect each year to be warmer than the last due to the intrinsic variability («weather») in global mean temperature (around 0.1 to 0.2 °C), but at
the current rate of global warming (~ 0.17 °C / decade), new records can be expected relatively frequently.
A recent study (pdf) estimated that at
the current rate of global warming, Manhattan will face a sea level rise of 2 feet or more by 2080.
Not exact matches
Most
of the
current discussion focuses on what can be done to reduce the
rate of exhaustion
of limited resources, the polluting
of air, water, and soil, and the
rate of global warming.
Time is running out: if
global warming continues at its
current rate, glaciers at an altitude below 3,500 metres in the Alps and 5,400 metres in the Andes will have disappeared by the end
of the end
of the 21st century.
Is it not the case that if the relative lack
of El Niño's and predominance
of La Nina's is in fact due to
global warming, rather than natural variability, then the
current increase in the
rate of warming of the ocean below 700m may continue.
«A new study, prepared at the request
of the Russian security agencies, concludes that
global warming is likely to make it impossible for Moscow to continue to export oil and gas at
current rates and thus over the next decade or more will undermine the foundations
of Russia's economic recovery and international standing...
As an academic and historian reminded me recently, the core cause
of a host
of current concerns, from
global warming to epidemic disease to hunger and tribal warfare, is that the population
of the world continues to grow at a rapid
rate.
We asked the scientific authors to
rate their own papers, and
of the papers in those categories (237 total), 96 percent agreed that humans are responsible for the majority
of the
current global warming.
I'm not for a moment suggesting this makes
global warming go away, only it might slow the
rate of change down - a bit - in the short term (perhaps the average transit time
of deep
currents).
At
current production
rates, high - carbon tar sands oil and its byproducts throw off enough greenhouse gas emissions to mark Canada as an obstacle to stopping
global warming short
of catastrophic levels.
In addition, there are no guarantees that the
current rate will be maintained, since many studies have shown the likelihood
of a higher
rate of sea level rise as
global warming continues.
They are talking about the dangers
of anthropogenic
global warming, but include the sea level rise from all
warming effects, most
of which occured long before we were burning fossil fuels at anywhere near
current rates.
This coincides with post-1970s
global warming, as expected, given point 1: «New estimate
of the
current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach» «Recent
global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?»
As even the most optimistic
warming scenario
of 1.5 °C would lead to a doubling
of global flood risk, effective adaptation plans must be implemented to keep the flood risk
rates at or below
current levels, according to the authors.
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set
of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will
warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production
of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The
rate of rise
of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the
rates of change
of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate
of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any
current climate; (5)
global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use
of fossil fuels at projected
rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The
global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity
of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's
rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
The draft paper holds out little hope that countries will be able to limit
global warming to the agreed goal
of 2 degrees Celsius, with temperatures likely to rise by almost 4 degrees by the end
of the century if the world continues to pump out emissions at the
current rate.
In fact, if we continue on our
current path
of high heat - trapping emissions, the region is projected to see forest fires during June and July at two to three times its
current rate.2, 6 Some 1 billion metric tons
of organic matter and older - growth trees could burn7, 15 — accelerating the release
of stored carbon and creating a dangerous
global warming amplification or feedback loop.5, 14
Japan needs to immediately and drastically increase its use
of renewable energy, from the perspectives
of mitigating
global warming, ensuring energy security (Japan's
current energy self - sufficiency
rate is only 4 %), revitalizing regional economies, developing renewable energy - related technologies (a field that is accelerating worldwide), and strengthening Japan's competitiveness in energy - related fields.
[55] According to the World Climate Report, «Dr. MIchaels» general message was that the recent behavior
of global temperatures is starting to push the (lower) bounds
of climate models» expectations
of such behavior and that if the
current slowdown in the
rate of global warming continues for much longer, we must start to question the reliability
of climate projections
of the future state
of our climate.»
[11] Recent estimates also suggest that at
current emission
rates the Earth could pass a threshold
of 2 °C
global warming, which the United Nations» IPCC designated as the upper limit to avoid «dangerous»
global warming, by 2036.
The
current warming trend is
of particular significance because most
of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result
of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a
rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.1 Earth - orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types
of information about our planet and its climate on a
global scale.
Among the larger sample size
of author self -
rated papers in categories 1 and 7 (237 in total), 228 (96 %) endorsed the consensus view that humans are causing most
of the
current global warming.