Suffice it to say that there are indications that at least a major part of
the current sea ice retreat is due to naturally occurring shifts in weather patterns, rather than simply to Arctic swarming caused by human GHG emissions, as some people apparently believe.
Not exact matches
Sensors that have plumbed the depths of Arctic
seas since 2002 have found warm
currents creeping up from the Atlantic Ocean and helping drive the dramatic
retreat of
sea ice there over the last decade.
The melting and
retreating of Arctic
sea ice in the summer months also has allowed PWW to move further north than in the past when
currents pushed it westward toward the Canadian archipelago.
Current predictions [5], [6] suggest that trends in
sea ice extent will alter in the second half of this century and that the annual average
sea ice extent will diminish by 33 %; most of this
retreat is expected to occur in winter and spring [5], [6], with attendant risks for emperor penguins.
Gavin disputes that the main driver of the
sea ice retreat is the albedo flip, but we are seeing not only polar amplification of global warming but positive feedback, which would not be explained simply by radiative forces and ocean
currents.
In fact, although climate models predict that Arctic
sea ice will decline in response to greenhouse gas increases, the
current pace of
retreat at the end of the melt season is exceeding the models» forecasts by around a factor of 3 (Stroeve 2007).
In addition to a groundwater base flow driving the
current steady rise in
sea level, meltwater from
retreating Little
Ice Age glaciers undoubtedly contributed as well.
Prediction is based on evaluation of
ice age that shows
current ice extent has
retreated back to the multiyear
ice edge in the eastern Arctic and in the Beaufort and Chukchi
seas.
Comparing the latest
ice age data from Maslanik and Fowler (see Maslanik contribution) for 21 June 2010 (Figure 6) to
current (20 July)
ice extent data shows that the
ice edge has
retreated back to the boundary between first - year and multi-year
ice pack in the eastern Arctic and in the Beaufort and Chukchi
seas.
«Antarctic
sea ice shows no sign of summer
retreat, and the
current winter's peak extent is well above average.
Until recently, the contribution of
ice sheets to
sea - level rise remained unknown and is still debated, but the
current acceleration of
sea - level rise is attributed to heating of the oceans and melting of land glaciers which is supported by measurements of ocean temperatures and the behavior of mountain glaciers, the vast majority of which are
retreating or exhibit signs of instability.
As far as
current global observations are concerned, Hansen cites both the decline of Arctic
sea ice and the worldwide
retreat of mountain glaciers as causes for major concern.
The unintended human consequences, starting with that agriculturally - triggered warming, extending to acquired vulnerability to extreme weather and solar storms, the
current global warming, Arctic
sea -
ice retreat (moment # 97), and coral reef die - offs (moment # 99).