Maybe our best bet here is to simply re-rank all Irish stocks, in terms of
their current share price vs. my target price.
For each stock, that's an exercise in assessing upside potential (i.e.
current share price vs. your latest estimate of intrinsic value), and then weighing that reward against the level & range of risk (s) involved.
Not exact matches
You've essentially forced yourself to base all decisions on the
current share price,
vs. your latest fair value estimate and / or
price target.
When buying REITs, one essentially looks for the dividend yield (last dividend
vs. current share price).
This offers a revised 164 % Upside Potential
vs. the
current GBP 2.25 p UNG
share price.
Overall, this leaves TOT on a P / E of only 6.2, and implies very v minor amendments to my Fair Value
Price Target, which now stands at EUR 0.912 per share, for an Upside Potential of 103 % vs. the current EUR 0.45 share p
Price Target, which now stands at EUR 0.912 per
share, for an Upside Potential of 103 %
vs. the
current EUR 0.45
share priceprice.
This offers 147 % Upside Potential
vs. the
current EUR 0.38
share price.
My recent letter (to AVGR management) spells out their latest results / growth
vs. current valuation, and highlights how a
share buyback & some other measures would raise the
share price & intrinsic value.
My Fair Value
Price Target is therefore EUR 14.19 per share, for an Upside Potential of 70 % vs. the current EUR 8.35 share p
Price Target is therefore EUR 14.19 per
share, for an Upside Potential of 70 %
vs. the
current EUR 8.35
share priceprice.
I'll admit they do appear to have upped their game & growth potential more recently... but obviously you're more than paying for that in the
current share price & valuation (
vs. the sub-40 cent levels I enjoyed)!
Close analysis of the placing document (see Appendix 2, Part A) was key: The GBP 12p coupon,
vs. the
share price at the time, offered a
current yield of almost 13 %!
Equivalent to $ 0.552, or a GBP 35.3 p Fair Value per
share — offering a 39 % Upside Potential
vs. the
current GBP 25.5 p
share price.
That's equivalent to $ 0.80 or a GBP 52.6 p Fair Value per
share — offering 62 % Upside Potential
vs. the
current GBP 32.5 p
share price].
This target offers Upside Potential of 168 %
vs. the
current 2.67 p
share price.