Not exact matches
Current climate change models indicate
temperatures will increase as long as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but the
projections of future precipitation are far less certain.
Udall said, «I was surprised at the extent to which the uncertain precipitation aspects of the
current projections hid the
temperature - induced flow declines.»
Could GCM
projections substantially overestimate
temperature trends for the western US if PDO shifts from its
current warm phase to a cool phase?
What we really want is to see some simple comparison of
temperature data since 1988 with
projections circa 1988 beyond 2010 and hindcasts from 1988 with
current (2010) understanding beyond 2010.
-- A line stressing that «the
current temperature plateau» does not undercut
projections of long - term warming:
Current projections point to average world
temperatures to rise between 1.1 C and 6.41 C between 1990 and 2100.
The one thing that stands out for me in the Hansen
projections is the [snip] claim that
current temperatures are in the same range of a few degrees as the altithermal and Eemian periods.
When we can not even agree on what the
temperature projections REALLY ARE (taking into account all known feedbacks and
current measurements), then how can we EVER expect there to be meaningful climate action when we keep spouting nonsense about how hot it's going to get?
This would also mean that many of the alarmist
projections are significantly overstated since much of the heating from added CO2 is simply holding our
current temperature steady.
The findings are also worrisome because the scenario imagined in the study — that is, a
temperature increase of 5.4 degrees F (3 degrees C) above pre-industrial levels — is not much more extreme than
current climate change
projections, the researchers said.
And if you're going to present that, it might be relevant to note that
current temperatures have been bumping along down at the bottom of the range of most previous
projections.
The
current version of the figure gives the impression that the IPCC expected
temperature to warm continuously year on year, which of course was not the expectation — the
projections shown here are just the long - term trend either from averaging the GCMs or using simple climate models.
In the meantime, their results have tentatively breathed a small hint of life back into the climate models, basically buying them a bit more time — time for either the observed
temperatures to start rising rapidly as
current models expect, or, time for the modelers to try to fix / improve cloud processes, oceanic processes, and other process of variability (both natural and anthropogenic) that lie behind what would be the clearly overheated
projections.
[55] According to the World Climate Report, «Dr. MIchaels» general message was that the recent behavior of global
temperatures is starting to push the (lower) bounds of climate models» expectations of such behavior and that if the
current slowdown in the rate of global warming continues for much longer, we must start to question the reliability of climate
projections of the future state of our climate.»
Thus, if the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles (which is supposed to happen in 2080, according to
current emission
projections), the global
temperature will rise only 1.8 degrees Celsius.
The presentation at http://brneurosci.org/co2.html, particularly the section of Linear Climate
Projection, shows the difficulties in reconciling any of the IPCC scenarios with the
current temperatures.
Even with 30 years, how are we doing when I have seen graphs that
current temperatures are running BELOW Hansen's 1988 No CO2 growth
projection?