The Federal Reserve's
current tightening cycle clearly has investors worried about American Capital Agency.
We expect
the current tightening cycle will be steady and gradual, likely resulting in four hikes in 2018 and two or three hikes in 2019 until rates reach 3 % to 3.25 %.
In spirit,
the current tightening cycle is no different from previous ones, in that the FOMC is balancing the tradeoff between inflation and growth.
Since the beginning of
its current tightening cycle in June 2004, the federal funds rate has been increased from 1.0 per cent to 2.5 per cent in increments of 25 basis points at each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Not exact matches
After increasing their policy rates by 125 basis points and 150 basis points respectively in the
current cycle, market participants expect that the
tightening cycles in both the UK and New Zealand are close to an end, although in both cases, recent inflation data have caused some participants to revise that assessment.
In addition, with most countries in emerging Asia running a
current account surplus and possessing sizable foreign currency reserves, I believe emerging Asia could be better positioned to withstand a Fed
tightening cycle than other emerging markets.
In our
current stage of the commercial real estate
cycle, most conventional lenders, including banks, life insurance companies and CMBS providers, have started to
tighten their minimum requirements and capping what they are willing to provide.