On the most reliable measures we identify,
current valuations actually approach 150 % to 170 % above those norms.
Not exact matches
Yet the
current situation
actually creates a double positive for stocks: interest rates are likely to stay lower for longer, which helps support equity
valuations while also providing investment - grade issuers with the ability to borrow cheaply and increase shareholder value.
What's
actually true is that yield - seeking speculation in response to quantitative easing and zero - interest rate policies has elevated
current valuations, giving investors returns (at least on paper) that they would have waited many more years to accrue.
Among the
valuation measures having the strongest correlation with actual subsequent market returns,
current levels are
actually within 10 % of the March 2000 extreme.
I
actually think it's likely that we'll see this combination over the completion of the
current market cycle, but only after a steep retreat in
valuations.
Note that on the basis of this measure, expected 12 - year S&P 500 total returns associated with
current valuation levels are negative, and even if one was to shift the blue line up somewhat closer to the red line in recent years, the associated return expectation would still be close to zero (which is what I
actually expect based on MarketCap / GVA and other historically reliable measures).
That is because PEP's average
valuation over the past 18 years has been P / E = 22.1, which is
actually a tad higher than its
current valuation of 21.5.
As described in my introduction to the concept of the MCTWI, in times of high
valuation your stock market investments are
actually worth less than their
current price.
As described in my introduction to the concept of the MCTWI, in times of high
valuation (like today) your stock market investments are
actually worth less than their
current price.
In the end, relative
valuation is frankly the best / most suitable compromise here... I think it's more than fair if we
actually price Digicel in line with MTN's
current valuation.
And looking at the elevated
valuations of (far less compelling) income & defensive stocks today, it's not difficult to argue companies who offer genuine long term secular growth (regardless of the economic environment), may
actually deliver far superior risk / reward & upside potential from
current levels.
Unfortunately, TFG's now being impacted by the
current market environment & sentiment, which has been particularly brutal for alternative asset management
valuations (by comparison, TFG's
actually held up remarkably well).
Agribusiness tends to be volatile (but usually self - correcting), so we might
actually see that peak margin turn up this year, or maybe we'll see 12.5 % after 3 years, or maybe the margin is only 7 % in 5 yrs time but revenues have increased 40 % + at that point... In terms of margin history, and revenue growth potential, I'm v happy with my
current valuation.
Price / Sales: Of course, I embed P / S ratios within many of my intrinsic
valuation analyses, but I don't
actually track
current P / S ratios for holdings.
I'm also not asking you to estimate what
current market
valuations might
actually be, or the average
valuations readers might submit, or even these companies» enterprise / take - out
valuations.