He later added: What he has shown is that the phasing of these natural cycles is such that they constructively interfere in recent times to produce at least a substantial portion of
our current warming cycle.
What he has shown is that the phasing of these natural cycles is such that they constructively interfere in recent times to produce at least a substantial portion of
our current warming cycle.
Bart says: June 8, 2010 at 11:20 am What he has shown is that the phasing of these natural cycles is such that they constructively interfere in recent times to produce at least a substantial portion of
our current warming cycle.
So while admitting, there probably is a very modest amount of AGW in
the current warming cycle, it could just as easily have been caused by: i) the effects of the huge increase in global irrigation, ii) tiny changes in the sun's radiation, and / or iii) the knock on effects of changes in the intensity and direction of ocean currents.
The current warming cycle began in the late 1990s.
Also noted is that in the 10,000 years of
the current warming cycles there have beem 16 to 18 200 to 300 year periods when the temperature rose of fell by 1 to 1.5 degrees.
By 1850 — the beginning of
the current warm cycle — the average dates of starting vintage were back in September.
Not exact matches
This
cycle coincides with the natural rise and fall of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, which fluctuate roughly 0.2 degree Celsius every 60 years as
warm currents shift.
However, in light of our substantiation of the effects of «grand solar minima» upon past global climates, it could be speculated that the
current pausing of «Global
Warming», which is frequently referenced by those sceptical of climate projections by the IPCC, might relate at least in part to a countervailing effect of reduced solar activity, as shown in the recent sunspot
cycle.»
Another devastating
cycle of cooling and
warming followed: a sudden, brutal cold snap called the Younger Dryas around 13,000 years ago, followed by rising temperatures in the
current Holocene Epoch.
Warmer oceans have also caused a distinct change in El Niño events — the warmer currents associated with the cycle have now been observed towards the central Pacific rather than the west, according to the Sheffield scien
Warmer oceans have also caused a distinct change in El Niño events — the
warmer currents associated with the cycle have now been observed towards the central Pacific rather than the west, according to the Sheffield scien
warmer currents associated with the
cycle have now been observed towards the central Pacific rather than the west, according to the Sheffield scientists.
12 Vicious
cycle: Water in the stratosphere contributes to the
current warming of the earth's atmosphere.
It seems far more likely that volcanic activity and the natural ice age
cycles are causing the
current, temporary
warming trend.
Ironically, prior to publishing a book in 2007 which blamed the
current warming on D - O
cycles, Singer argued that the planet wasn't
warming as recently as 2003.
The bottom line is that regardless of whether or not the D - O
cycles are triggered by the Sun, the timing is clearly not right for this
cycle to be responsible for the
current warming.
In geological time, the balance of the system has changed several times, and just like any system can have a resonance at certain points, the climate can reach a resonant point where it is teetering between two states (our
current 100,000 year ice age
warm period
cycle).
The
current solar
cycle has weaker irradiance than the several prior solar
cycles, but the decreased irradiance can only partially account for the decreased
warming rate [17].
As astronomical
cycles they are predictable into the future and will cause another ice age probably in around 50,000 years (that depends on where the threshold for glaciation is, and what future CO2 levels will be at that time), but there is no way the Milankovich
cycles could explain the
current global
warming.
Just to indicate that the
current warming could not be due to the solar
cycle.
For Fred Singer, a climatologist at the University of Virginia and another co-author, the
current warming «trend is simply part of a natural
cycle of climate
warming and cooling that has been seen in ice cores, deep sea sediments and stalagmites... and published in hundreds of papers in peer reviewed journals.»
Remember, we are at or near what would, absent global
warming, be the end of the
current interglacial phase of the earth's million - year - old climate
cycle.
We can, therefore, compare the present
warming trends (and
warming / cooling
cycles; think about the «mini-ice age» of the 19th Century) with the geological record and make statistical extrapolations about changing rates and develop hypotheses about causes (whichh, basically, is what
current climate scientists have been doing).
Walt, if you've ever studied Pleistocene geology and the million year history of glacial advances and interglacial
warming cycles you would know human - induced global
warming and climate changes are the dominant cause of
current and future catastrophic consequences.
And whereas the past interglacials were natural
cycles, the
current warming is not.
One should also pay attention to other greenhouse gases, particularly methane (from rice paddies, ruminant animal digestive processes, industrial processes, and distributed natural sources, some of which could be triggered to large releases by
warming) and nitrous oxide (from the nitrogen
cycle linking the atmosphere, plants, and bacteria, now exacerbated by extremely heavy use of nitrogenous fertilizers in agriculture; note, as does Vaclav Smil from the University of Manitoba, that fertilizer use is required to feed half the world's
current population.
I am responding to # 31's statement that the
current low solar
cycle corresponds to the «strongest
warming in the same 100 years.»
It is also very crucial to include the most definitive estimates of additional carbon
cycle feedbacks that have already been locked in due to
current (and future)
warming.
A more reasonable natural variability / forcing argument might go something like this: 1) There is natural variability of climate due to solar activity 2) Climate is changing now 3) Forcing can result in climate change, but the response of the C
cycle to forcing is poorly understood 4) Forcing is happening now 5) Forcing and / or solar activity could be to blame for
current warming trends Is this unreasonable?
Anthropogenic climate change will mean an increased average temperature for the oceans and possible changes in
current systems that could locally amplify or reduce
warming and can alter nutrient
cycling resulting in changes in the amount of nutrients available for the growth of phytoplankton, the plant plankton that are the base of the food chain.
In geological time, the balance of the system has changed several times, and just like any system can have a resonance at certain points, the climate can reach a resonant point where it is teetering between two states (our
current 100,000 year ice age
warm period
cycle).
BTW: going back 15 million years or more (say, to dinos 65 Myr) is not relevant to GHG
warming today — the
current glaciation
cycle is only a COUPLE of a million years old!
But as cogently interpreted by the physicist and climate expert Dr. Joseph Romm of the liberal Center for American Progress, «Latif has NOT predicted a cooling trend — or a «decades - long deep freeze» — but rather a short - time span where human - caused
warming might be partly offset by ocean
cycles, staying at
current record levels, but then followed by «accelerated»
warming where you catch up to the long - term human - caused trend.
Mathematically speaking there is absolutely no chance that our
current warming is in any sense a part of a natural
cycle.
There are many natural climatic
cycles that we already know of, and the
current warming trend may just be part of one that we have not yet identified.
Answer: While it is undoubtedly true that there are natural
cycles and variations in global climate, those who insist that
current warming is purely natural — or even mostly natural — have two challenges.
William: Yes, however, there are sets of other observations that logically supports the assertion that the majority of the
warming in the last 150 years was due to solar magnetic
cycle changes rather than the increase in atmospheric CO2 and that the planet is about to significantly cool due to the
current solar magnetic
cycle change.
There is observational evidence of 23
cycles of
warming and cooling (nine of the
cycles occurred in the
current interglacial period, the Holocene).
An especially powerful El Niño
cycle in 1998 is thought to have contributed to the unusually high temperatures that year, and Hansen's group estimates that there's a good chance 2010 will be the
warmest year on record if the
current El Niño persists.
The Norwegians also noted very little ice around Svalbard in the early 1920's so who is to say that this recent decline isn't just part of a longer 80 - 100 year
cycle, probably led by changes to ocean
currents (which would explain why the Arctic has
warmed, unlike the Antarctic continent).
I agree that that does not duplicate my model because it does not deal with the millennial solar
cycle which induced the MWP, LIA and
current warm period.
Third, whatever the cause of the Hale
cycle as a component of HadCRUT3, it's obviously been there for as long as the Sun has had a rotating magnetic field (which accounts for both the Ney effect and the Birkeland
current), so why would it contribute to global
warming right when humans suddenly pump an incredible amount of CO2 into the atmosphere?
We also need to identify all the separate oceanic
cycles around the globe and ascertain both the
current state of their respective
warming or cooling modes and, moreover, the intensity of each, both at the time of measurement and in the future.
«Does the
current global
warming signal reflect a natural
cycle»... We found 342 natural
warming events (NWEs) corresponding to this definition, distributed over the past 250,000 years....
And it operates in accordance with the millennial solar
cycle as per the Roman
Warm Period, Dark Ages, MWP, LIA and the
Current Warm Period.
But as a cooling world is now much more likely than a
warming one for the next half century in the light of the
current sunspot
cycles and the ocean oscillations it would seem absolutely negligent to ignore the possibility, however politically incorrect it might be to entertain the thought.
And those who argue «it's just a natural
cycle» can never seem to identify exactly which natural
cycle can explain the
current warming, nor can they explain how our understanding of the fundamental climate physics is wrong.
«Spotless Sun» prompts scientists to fear «dramatic turn for the worse» — May 31, 2008 — Excerpt: ith the debate focused on a
warming Earth, the icy consequences of a cooler future have not been considered You probably haven't heard much of Solar
Cycle 24, the current cycle that our sun has entered, and I hope you d
Cycle 24, the
current cycle that our sun has entered, and I hope you d
cycle that our sun has entered, and I hope you don't.
- Associated Press: Study says sun getting hotter Solar radiation reaching the Earth is 0.036 percent
warmer than it was in 1986, when the
current solar
cycle was beginning, a researcher reports in a study to be published Friday in the journal Science.
The
current political
cycle is dominated by shrill attacks on anyone who questions whether man - made emissions of carbon dioxide are driving global
warming.
«While it is undoubtably true that there are some
cycles and natural variations in global climate, anyone who wishes to insist that the
current warming is purely or even just mostly natural has two challenges.»