Sentences with phrase «current warming projections»
Piers Forster from the University of Leeds pointed us to his recent paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, which indicates that current warming projections are in line with past published reports.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/ Not exact matches
Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios.
However, in light of our substantiation of the effects of «grand solar minima» upon past global climates, it could be speculated that the current pausing of «Global Warming», which is frequently referenced by those sceptical of climate projections by the IPCC, might relate at least in part to a countervailing effect of reduced solar activity, as shown in the recent sunspot cycle.»
Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.
Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest.
The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.
The quantitative contribution of CO2 to the ice age cooling and warming is fully consistent with current understanding of CO2's warming properties, as manifested in the IPCC's projections of future warming of 3 ± 1.5 C for a doubling of CO2 concentration.
The response to global warming of deep convective clouds is also a substantial source of uncertainty in projections since current models predict different responses of these clouds.
This isn't news to top climate scientists around the world (see Hadley Center: «Catastrophic» 5 — 7 °C warming by 2100 on current emissions path) or even to top climate scientists in this country (see US Geological Survey stunner: Sea - level rise in 2100 will likely «substantially exceed» IPCC projections, SW faces «permanent drying») and certainly not to people who follow the scientific literature, like Climate Progress readers (see Study: Water - vapor feedback is «strong and positive,» so we face «warming of several degrees Celsius»).
Today that projection has changed to 2012, thereby proving emphatically that this Global Warming process is happening Exponentially, which has been further advance by our current Administration's policies such as the «Clear Skies Initiative», which as most of us know is nothing but a «wolf in sheep's clothing».
Could GCM projections substantially overestimate temperature trends for the western US if PDO shifts from its current warm phase to a cool phase?
The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.
These results provide quantitative evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback in current climate models, which is crucial to their use for global warming projections.
page 30: «Current carbon dioxide emissions are, in fact, above the highest emissions scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), implying that if we stay the current course, we're heading for even larger warming than the highest projections from the IPCC.Current carbon dioxide emissions are, in fact, above the highest emissions scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), implying that if we stay the current course, we're heading for even larger warming than the highest projections from the IPCC.current course, we're heading for even larger warming than the highest projections from the IPCC.»
-- A line stressing that «the current temperature plateau» does not undercut projections of long - term warming:
The quantitative contribution of CO2 to the ice age cooling and warming is fully consistent with current understanding of CO2's warming properties, as manifested in the IPCC's projections of future warming of 3 ± 1.5 C for a doubling of CO2 concentration.
Where lower - resolution models blur the effect of zonal currents and often misrepresent the warm pool's boundaries, the higher - resolution model allows more detailed projections.
There are projections that India could lose 10 - 40 % of its current crop production by the end of century due to global warming.
So, once we clear away the underbrush, we can see that the case for a carbon tax or a cap - and - trade emissions rationing system is really that it would be a hedge against the risk that actual damages from warming would be much, much worse than current risk - adjusted projections indicate.
The current version of the figure gives the impression that the IPCC expected temperature to warm continuously year on year, which of course was not the expectation — the projections shown here are just the long - term trend either from averaging the GCMs or using simple climate models.
But a growing body of scientific evidence suggests that the projections of climate change that have been made by the current family of computerized climate models has been overdone — that the world will warm up significantly less than has been predicted as a result of our ongoing carbon dioxide emissions.
Results from an irreducibly simple climate model,» concluded that, once discrepancies in IPCC computer models are taken into account, the impact of CO2 - driven manmade global warming over the next century (and beyond) is likely to be «no more than one - third to one - half of the IPCC's current projections» — that is, just 1 - 2 degrees C (2 - 4 deg F) by 2100!
My reading of the new projections suggests that to play its part in preventing two degrees of global warming, the UK needs to cut greenhouse gases by roughly 25 % from current levels by the end of 2012 — a quarter in four years.
But if the timing of future warming is further away than current pessimistic projections, then technological progress could have a lot to do with it *.
The scientific basis for current projections of significant warming due to enhanced minor greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is reviewed.
«Scientists were quick to declare the results of the Turner et al paper, which covered 1 per cent of the Antarctic continent, did not negate a long - term warming because of man - made climate change... «Climate model projections forced with medium emission scenarios indicate the emergence of a large anthropogenic regional warming signal, comparable in magnitude to the late - 20th - century peninsula warming, during the latter part of the current century,» the Turner research concluded.»
[55] According to the World Climate Report, «Dr. MIchaels» general message was that the recent behavior of global temperatures is starting to push the (lower) bounds of climate models» expectations of such behavior and that if the current slowdown in the rate of global warming continues for much longer, we must start to question the reliability of climate projections of the future state of our climate.»
The scientific paper, entitled «Why Models Run Hot,» concludes that the computer models overstated the impact of CO2 on the climate: «The impact of anthropogenic global warming over the next century... may be no more than one - third to one - half of IPCC's current projections.»
«The impact of anthropogenic global warming over the next century... may be no more than one - third to one - half of the IPCC's current projections,» they wrote.
I'd note that Hadley sees a median warming of 5.5 °C on our current emissions path, but presumably that's because they model warming beyond A1F1 (see also M.I.T. joins climate realists, doubles its projection of global warming by 2100 to ~ 5.5 °C from preindustrial levels).
The best recent models show staggeringly high Arctic warming this century if we stay on our current emissions path (see M.I.T. doubles its 2095 warming projection to 10 °F — with 866 ppm and Arctic warming of 20 °F).
This abrupt increase in the gas, 20 times as effective at trapping heat as carbon dioxide, would accelerate global warming 15 - 35 years ahead of current projections, setting off a so - called «economic time bomb» of some $ 60 trillion (roughly the size of the 2012 global economy, writes Climate Central) the commentary estimates.
None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments, Observations show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the averages over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.
«While a longer time range is required to establish whether an individual event is attributable to climate change, the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming.»
Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios.
Projections for the way in which our planet will be affected by the current trend of rapid planetary warming are dire.