The base is currently buried about 35 meters below the surface but the part of the ice sheet that covers the camp may start to melt by the end of the century
if current warming trends continue, scientists warned.
Professor Kug notes that further research is needed to obtain a general conclusion on the matter, but this research delivers important implications for climate adaptation because the analysis shows that if
current warming trends continue, it is feasible to conclude that the ecosystems in regions affected by the anomalous climate will suffer greater damages due to the cold and dry spells.
Redmond
said current warming trends could reduce the number of areas with microclimates favorable for future pinyon pine recovery, not if but when the next drought happens.
The authors write that their observation that the modern collapse of the LIS - B is a unique event supports the hypothesis that
the current warming trend in the northwestern Weddell Sea is longer and bigger than past warm episodes.
Given the strength of the Hurst coefficients — something we all agree on — is it not possible that a large portion of
the current warming trend is a product of internal climate variability, as mediated by complex dynamics of ocean circulation?
So, I was wondering what the thinking was about thresholds with respect to
the current warming trend on this blog.
Shortening lags temperature by about 20 years, so
the current warming trend began in about 1800.
This means that
the current warming trend is qualitatively different from those we can study through ice cores etc., even if past warming was amplified by a CO2 feedback.
Karlsson claims that «human emissions of carbon dioxide and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases is [sic] a substantial influence on
the current warming trend.»
The physical evidence clearly shows that carbon dioxide is causing
the current warming trend.
Sure, it only extends back to the 1880s and you could argue
the current warming trend is a result of Earth «naturally» coming out of LIA.
But GCM - tuning exercises strongly suggest that external forcings from GHGs must be involved in producing
the current warming trend.
The result; a long upwards trend, instead of one more fairly representing the ups and downs we can observe over a thousand years, with
the current warming trend starting around 1700, making Giss a staging post of increasing warmth and not the starting post.
The current warming trend is 0.13 to 0.16 degrees per decade.
This is also true of
the current warming trend — an increase in carbon dioxide is leading to an increase in temperatures.
That said, the main reason we think that
the current warming trend is not natural is because the small increase in solar irradiance from 1975 to current is much less than from the first half of the century.
If they were natural why do you believe
the current warming trend isn't?
Also, it turns out that the difference in slope (change in temperature with year) for the 1975 -
current warming trend is statistically indistinguishable from the prior warming trend.
From this perspective, it's the LIA that was unusual, and
the current warming trend simply represents a return to the mean.