In the graph below we can see
the current yield curve.
We can't rule out the possibility that
the current yield curve inversion will be followed by further economic growth, but such an exception would be outside the oval.
The current yield curve is flattening too quickly.
The known, in this case, is
the current yield curve spread and the level of earnings.
Erik and Jeff discuss what
the current yield curve is telling us?
Even with
the current yield curve, I can tell you that goods price inflation will worsen, leading to monetary tightening that will be painful, or no tightening, and inflation that rivals the 70s.
Okay, here's the scenario: I start off with
the current yield curve for 2 -, 5 -, 10 -, and 30 - year Treasuries (0.51 %, 1.61 %, 2.32 % and 3.04 %).