Sentences with phrase «cycles over the short term»

Not exact matches

«Historically, what we've seen in past [election] cycles is that these networks lose, essentially, all of those short - term gains after the election is over,» Sweeney said.

But the multiplier varies over the economic cycle — higher during recessions or when short - term rates are near zero, and lower when an economy runs near fully capacity.

These are much longer - term cycles, but it also makes sense for investors to understand how volatility can affect results in counterintuitive ways over the shorter - term.

While valuations drive long - term returns, the primary driver of market returns over shorter portions of the market cycle is the attitude of investors toward risk, as indicated by the uniformity or divergence of market internals.

We all know that real estate goes in cycles... and although over the long term real estate always appreciates... it does go through shorter term ups and downs.

The essential thing to understand about valuations is that while they are highly reliable measures of prospective long - term market returns (particularly over 10 - 12 year horizons), and of potential downside risk over the completion of any market cycle, valuations are also nearly useless over shorter segments of the market cycle.

Historically - reliable valuation measures are remarkably useful in projecting long - term and full - cycle market outcomes, but the behavior of the market over shorter segments of the market cycle is driven by the psychological inclination of investors toward speculation or risk - aversion.

Valuations are the primary driver of long - term returns, and the risk - preferences of investors — as conveyed by the uniformity or divergence of market action across a broad range of individual stocks, industries, sectors and security types (including credit)-- drive returns over shorter portions of the market cycle.

While long - term market returns are driven almost exclusively by valuations, investment returns over shorter segments of the market cycle are highly dependent on investor psychology, particularly the inclination of investors toward speculation or risk - aversion.

But understand that even when valuations don't «work» over shorter segments of the market cycle, the longer - term and full - cycle outcomes of hypervaluation are predictably brutal.

Despite risks that I fully expect to devolve into a roughly -65 % loss in the S&P 500 over the completion of the current market cycle, it's absolutely critical to distinguish the long - term effects of valuation from the shorter - term effects speculative pressure.

However, we expect the gains to be moderate over the short term, as Fed rate rises will likely be slower than in past cycles given relatively tame U.S. inflation.

Having an up - to - date list of contacts and qualified leads gives you an easy and convenient way to organize the information you need to provide timely, pertinent, and consistent follow - up both over short - and long - term sales cycles.

Over the long - term, we expect our relative performance to be an increment over-and-above the absolute performance of the markets we invest in (though this is certainly not true over periods shorter than a full market cycOver the long - term, we expect our relative performance to be an increment over-and-above the absolute performance of the markets we invest in (though this is certainly not true over periods shorter than a full market cycover-and-above the absolute performance of the markets we invest in (though this is certainly not true over periods shorter than a full market cycover periods shorter than a full market cycle).

Since the inception of the Fund (as well, of course, in long - term historical tests), our present approach to risk management has both added to returns and reduced volatility - not necessarily in any short period, but over the complete market cycle.

This means that they are much better suited to recognising any warning signs in the company performance, know the impact of any key personnel leaving, and are not worried if earnings over a cycle are «lumpy» rather than the perfect, consistent increases in earnings that managers with a more short - term outlook prefer.

While that's not generally true over the short - term for investment management, it still tends to be true over the full market cycle.

While long - term and full - cycle market outcomes are tightly determined by market valuations, the effect of valuations on outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle depends on the psychological preference of investors toward speculation or risk aversion.

Put simply, valuation drives long - term returns, and investor risk - preferences drive returns over shorter portions of the market cycle.

If a portfolio loads market risk when the likely return / risk profile is favorable, and hedges market risk when the likely return / risk profile is unfavorable, it's possible to achieve a very satisfactory return / risk profile over the full market cycle without ever making a specific short - term forecast.

The central message of our discipline is that valuations are enormously informative about prospects for long - term and full - cycle returns, but that outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle are driven by changes in the psychological preferences of investors toward speculation or risk - aversion.

Unless reason reasserts itself over passion, the potential for short - term chaos is great and the risk of long - term damage even greater: an ongoing cycle of resentment, bitterness, and revenge that will lead to more of the gratuitous violence that was seen on the streets of Washington this past January 21.

But the multiplier varies over the economic cycle — higher during recessions or when short - term rates are near zero, and lower when an economy runs near fully capacity.

Although stocks can return well over the long run, in short or immediate term, they may well be outperformed by bonds, especially at certain times in the economic cycle.

volatility could fall after the first short option expires, lowering the time value of your LEAP as well as future short - term options you would want to sell, making it harder (or impossible) to achieve your profit goal over several option cycles

The lessons we have learned from the previous cycles are that over the short - term valuations tend to be driven by supply / demand and fear / greed.

If our returns fall within this targeted return band in the shorter - term (one year), we believe we will be on track to beat both the market and a balanced equity / bond portfolio over a full market cycle.

That move did encourage a short - term market bounce, but the subsequent lesson investors should have learned (and the same one I reviewed in detail last week in relation to the 2007 - 2009 collapse) is also the lesson that investors are likely to experience over the completion of the present cycle: Once extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions are joined by a deterioration in market internals, even easier Fed policy does not provide reliable support for the stock market.

While there are short term loans available for people who just need a quick fix, long term payday loans and lines of credit are aimed towards consumers who need to have a longer repayment period in order to survive without ending up taking up another loan, and another... This option helps you avoid a cycle of debt over the long term.

However, we expect the gains to be moderate over the short term, as Fed rate rises will likely be slower than in past cycles given relatively tame U.S. inflation.

Unlike long - term deferral period annuities (longevity insurance) that are primarily meant to protect against longevity risk, a short - term deferral period annuity can provide a steady income to pre-fund retirement spending over the entire retirement life cycle.

Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere over short - term cool and hot spells in relation to global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades - long graph of global temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short - term up - and - down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño — Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.

Over very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep ocean to come into balance), and variations over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitivOver very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep ocean to come into balance), and variations over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitivover the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitivity.

[Response: I guess you missed the part about them only showing correlation with short - term fluctuations — nothing at all to do with any «70 - yr cycle» — in temperature over land only.

Solar output varies both over the long - term (centuries), which will impact long - term climate trends, and over the shorter - term (the 11 year solar cycle).

However, as Dikran noted in response, it's entirely possible that over such a short timeframe, short - term noise such as ENSO and solar cycles may have masked the continuing long - term global warming trend.

«A reduction in the rate of warming (not a pause) is a result of short - term natural variability, ocean absorption of heat from the atmosphere, volcanic eruptions, a downward phase of the 11 - year solar cycle, and other impacts over a short time period,» Cleugh says.

Thus the IPCC multi-model average of simulations do not reflect these short - term temperature influences, which is not a problem for long - term predictions, because positive and negative short - term cycles and noise average out to zero over long timeframes.

The glacial - interglacial cycles are an example of tight coupling between climate and the carbon cycle over long time scales, but there is also clear evidence of the carbon cycle responding to short - term climatic anomalies such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (Rayner et al., 1999; Bousquet et al., 2000; C. Jones et al., 2001; Lintner, 2002; Russell and Wallace, 2004) and the climate perturbation arising from the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption (Jones and Cox, 2001a; Lucht et al., 2002; Angert et al., 2004).

Definitely yes, at some point in the future (billions of years), something not experienced on Earth will be affecting the climate, but over the relatively shorter - term, the same physical mechanisms control the climate, just playing on variations on the combinations, timing, and intensity of those mechanisms: namely: Milankovitch cycles, GHG concentrations, ocean cycles, hydrological cycle, volcanic activity, solar cycles, biosphere interactions, location of continents, etc..

In the UK, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has called for governments of all political persuasions to take more of a long - term approach to planning such projects, with a 25 -30-year horizon rather than working over five - year electoral cycles or even shorter timeframes.

REIT analyst Steve Manaker says he has seen REITs shifting focus among management teams from short - term goals to sustained growth over market cycles.