What began as
a cyclical bull market in 1996, has surpassed even the most positive market predictions of industry observers, as the real estate market goes from strength to strength.
The counter to that is that this is merely
a cyclical bull market in the context of the secular bear market that started in 2000.
Investment Analyst Gary Tanashian has identified a 5 - year
cyclical bull market in US stocks.
Not exact matches
It's why Wilson stressed that although we're seeing a
cyclical top for US stocks, we're still
in the middle of a secular
bull market.
World growth will remain low on average but negative
in the UK and Europe; price inflation will remain sufficiently subdued for a while longer so as to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime of negative real interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the risk of a eurozone collapse is off the table for now; finally, stock
markets should continue to perform better than expected, even though the four - year old
cyclical bull market is long by historical standards.
April 4 - Omar Aguilar of Charles Schwab says U.S. stocks are still
in a
cyclical bull market and feels that retail investors will get back
in the
market as the housing and labor
markets stabilize.
What it really did was prevent people from embracing one of the best
cyclical bull markets of our lifetime —
in both stocks and bonds.
After the third longest
bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration
in key trend - following components within our measures of
market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period average) and
cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9 - year high.
The public generally believes that a new
bull market began early this year after having sat out the first 4 years of the still - ongoing
cyclical bull that began
in March of 2009.
It also suggests to us that the
cyclical bull market is more likely to end via a gradual rolling - over than an upside blow - off, because upside blow - offs
in major financial
markets require exuberance from the general public.
I've seen a lot of commentary
in which the author assumes that this year's rally
in the gold price is the first rally
in a new
cyclical bull market.
Precious metals prices have been
in a
cyclical decline since mid-2011 — not unlike the last secular
bull market in the 1970's — before gold's eight-fold rise less than two years later.
However, after enormous bailouts of the largest financial institutions
in the country, as well as the auto industry, and even more monetary ease than
in 2003 (accompanied by TARP, the stimulus plan, QE, and QE2); we started another
cyclical bull market within the secular bear
market.
As we discussed a few moments ago, crude oil is most likely
in a
cyclical bull market which began
in 2016.
-- I am firmly
in the «
Cyclical Bull Market» camp.
Are we
in a short - term
cyclical bull market, one that is already long
in the tooth and coming to an end?
If July turns out to be the low point for this bear
market, it will then mark the second highest level of valuation that a
cyclical bull has ever started from (the highest starting valuation level was
in 2003).
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback examine the more volatile
cyclical dynamics we're likely to encounter
in 2018, even as the secular risk - asset
bull market remains
in place.
We view rapid flows into passive strategies as a
cyclical phenomenon which invariably distorts equity valuations
in the later stages of a
bull market.
My own controversial perspective is that we are
in a
cyclical bull market, which is a part of a larger secular bear
market.
In fact, they've missed another
cyclical post-recession
bull market.
They want to max out their RRSPs and TFSAs so they can retire at a young age, not because they have any interest
in asset allocation, rebalancing, or
cyclical bull / bear
markets.
In our final blog post of 2017, we argued that the 2018 investment «vintage» would likely be defined by history as marking a
cyclical turning point within a much larger secular
bull market for global risk assets.
There are those who think that we are simply experiencing a healthy pullback that is part of the wall of worry just like we saw
in 2004, during that
cyclical bull market.
Despite my view we are
in a
cyclical bull market, the fact remains that we have covered a lot of ground
in a short amount of time since February.
There were
cyclical bear
markets in 1977 and 1981 - 2 (both ~ 20 % drops
in senior indexes), and
in 1994 (DJI / SPX fell less than 10 %, but small caps were down 25 % + after the huge small cap
bull cycle
in 1991 - 3) and 1998 (over 20 % drop
in SP
in 4 months, with LTCM failure the final chord).
Understanding whether we are
in a
cyclical bull or bear
market greatly enhances our chances for success.
As you can see, this secular bear
market was typical of most secular bear
markets, such as the one from 1966 - 1982, composed of mostly vicious
cyclical bull and bear
markets that result
in a mostly sideways long term movement.