Yet, if we accept the notion that secular bear markets include
cyclical bull markets within them, and if we recognize the epic nature of the risk - off movement of capital, «secular» is a more accurate descriptor (than «cyclical»).
As the guys at Nautilus Capital note,
cyclical bull markets within secular bears have tended to average just 26 months, with an average gain of 85 %, while cyclical bears within secular bears have averaged 19 months, with steep average losses of -39 %.
However, after enormous bailouts of the largest financial institutions in the country, as well as the auto industry, and even more monetary ease than in 2003 (accompanied by TARP, the stimulus plan, QE, and QE2); we started
another cyclical bull market within the secular bear market.
Not exact matches
Instead, this is nothing more than a
cyclical bear
market within the confines of a multi-year secular
bull market.
After the third longest
bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend - following components
within our measures of
market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period average) and
cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9 - year high.
Clearly, silver underperformed gold during the first two years of each of the last three
cyclical precious - metals
bull markets that occurred
within secular
bull markets.
In our final blog post of 2017, we argued that the 2018 investment «vintage» would likely be defined by history as marking a
cyclical turning point
within a much larger secular
bull market for global risk assets.
Within a secular trend, there may be a number of shorter
cyclical bear and
bull markets.
Within these long trends there are shorter
cyclical bull and bear
market trends that generally last 2 - 3 years.
We may have
cyclical (shorter - term)
bull and bear
markets within that period (as we have seen), but the odds are another great
bull (as from 1982 — 2000) won't be here until, you read it correctly, 2017.
Within a secular
bull or bear
market there can be several
cyclical bull markets AND bear
markets.