«At this point, and in the context of oil prices that are within striking distance of what we envision to be
cyclical highs over the next 6 to 12 months, we think the Exxon short has essentially run its course,» Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov wrote.
Not exact matches
After the third longest bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend - following components within our measures of market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period average) and
cyclical momentum rolls
over from a 9 - year
high.
EQUITIES THEMATIC — SAME AS IT EVER WAS: Small Cap /
High Beta /
Cyclicals / Value /
High Short Interest / Inflation / Domestic Exposure / Weak Balance Sheet
over Low Vol / Defensives / Anti-Beta / Growth / Quality / Strong Balance Sheet.
The broad - based fall in the US dollar
over the December quarter saw the Australian dollar reach US79.46 cents in late November, just below the recent
cyclical high of US80.05 seen in February last year.
We could see a return to these valuations
over the next couple of years on
higher demand, a stronger macroeconomic backdrop and
cyclical fundamentals, as shown in the following chart courtesy of DoubleLine Capital:
For those who don't want to dig through the old posts, it's been a fairly steady increase in sales and earnings
over the last 24 months, though there's definitely a
cyclical aspect too (new release months, especially for full - length novels, are the
highest earning months with the month before a new release typically being lowest).
So while we don't believe that the record
high gold / XAU ratio can be taken entirely at face value, there's no question that it is elevated even on a
cyclical basis (that is, even allowing for a gradual structural increase
over time), and there's no question in the data that cyclically elevated gold / XAU ratios have been associated with strong subsequent gains in the XAU index
over a 3 - 4 year period on average, though certainly not without risk or volatility.
The key to knowing that the
cyclical bear market was
over was the
higher low that occurred in January 2003.
The average occupancy rate for seniors housing properties in 1Q11 was 87.9 %, which is 0.2 percentage points
higher than the previous quarter and a 0.6 percentage point increase
over its
cyclical bottom of 87.3 % in 1Q10.