While a
number of simple measures of valuation have also been useful over the years, even metrics such as price - to -
peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed at the 2007
peak, which were about 50 % above the historical norm - reflecting the combination of booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins in
cyclical and commodity - oriented industries.
Our measures for earnings, dividends, and sales are a five - year average to smooth
cyclical peaks and troughs and to minimize the impact of negative
numbers for each.
Although it has been trending between 1.8 % and 2.1 % during the past year, the
number of units under construction as of 1Q11 is down 57 % from its
cyclical peak in 1Q08.