This represented an increase of 20 basis points from the prior quarter, and was 20 basis points shy of
its cyclical peak of 90.3 % that was reached in the fourth quarter of 2014.
The share of homes sold without professional representation has trended lower since last reaching
a cyclical peak of 18 percent in 1997.
Unsold inventory has trended down from a record 4.04 million in July 2007; supplies reached
a cyclical peak of 12.1 months in July 2010.
But the home ownership rate of households under 35 has fallen to 34 percent from the recent
cyclical peak of 43 percent.
A clear downtrend in FSBOs has been seen since that market share experienced
a cyclical peak of 18 per cent in 1997, says NAR.
Not exact matches
In short, the arguments about the difficulties
of influencing activity should make central bankers cautious and modest about their role as
cyclical stabilisers, but do not excuse them from taking the cycle into account in setting policy, and doing what they can to lop
peaks and fill troughs.
While a number
of simple measures
of valuation have also been useful over the years, even metrics such as price - to -
peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed at the 2007
peak, which were about 50 % above the historical norm - reflecting the combination
of booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins in
cyclical and commodity - oriented industries.
With regard to recent performance, which has been positive but modest since the market
peak last year, the main factor that has kept our returns relatively restrained despite the collapse
of financials has been the simultaneous collapse
of technology and consumer stocks, with
cyclicals and commodities providing the greatest support to the major indices.
In fact, given that the U.S. labor market likely experienced its
cyclical peak at the end
of 2015 and the Fed began raising rates too late in my opinion, current Fed Funds futures are pricing in essentially only one hike in 2016, according to data accessible via Bloomberg.
After the third longest bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend - following components within our measures
of market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish
peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top
of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period average) and
cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9 - year high.
Nonetheless, vehicle sales keep failing to rise through their previous
cyclical peaks, in spite
of rising employment, record low financing costs and low oil prices (charts from CalculatedRisk)
We believe a case can be made that the recent market
peak signals the end
of this historic
cyclical bull run.
The starting point for this
cyclical argument coincided with the Great War, as the years from 1914 to 1920 witnessed the emergence, the
peak, and the collapse
of Wilsonian idealism» an internationalism quite self - conscious in its moral assertiveness, in distinction from the Realpolitik internationalism
of Theodore Roosevelt.
Cyclical self - care is the only way for women to tap into this type
of flow - based
peak performance.
«Whilst it is a
cyclical industry with
peaks and troughs
of activity, the action that we and others are taking now is aimed at safeguarding the next generation
of talented individuals.
Essentially, a secular bull period comprises several
cyclical bull - bear cycles, where each bull market achieves a successively higher level
of market valuation at its
peak.
An example
of when a buyback makes sense is when a
cyclical shareholder friendly company is at the
peak of its earnings cycle.
Price - to - earnings ratio is sensitive to
cyclical peaks and troughs unless multiple years
of earnings are used.
Our measures for earnings, dividends, and sales are a five - year average to smooth
cyclical peaks and troughs and to minimize the impact
of negative numbers for each.
EPS stands at EUR 1.00, and I'm reminded
of the rule: With
cyclical stocks, never pay more than 5 - 6 times
peak earnings!
So despite the price volatility, pelt volumes have continued to grow (with no signs
of abatement in consumer demand)-- I remain convinced Saga's ultimately a
cyclical growth stock, and in time we'll see a fresh
peak in sales & turnover again (as in 2013 & 2006).
That's because the shares
of cyclical companies - whose fortunes are tied most closely to economic growth - climbed 80 percent (trough - to -
peak) from last March through the end
of the year, according to an index tracked by Morgan Stanley.
modest proposal discount to real estate value, low multiple
cyclicals at
peak earnings, insurers, specialty finance co's on backside
of growth
There is a few problems with this sort
of analysis: The biggest problem with the so - called Fed model is that its built on two assumptions: 1) That profits will stay high, despite being a
cyclical peak and decellerating; and 2) that interest rates will stay low.
discount to real estate value, low multiple
cyclicals at
peak earnings, insurers, specialty finance co's on backside
of growth
I would continue to criticize some
of the tropical storm papers for not noting the
cyclical nature in the data and the dangers
of going from a valley to
peak in the cycles or just as bad,
peak to a valley.
Like so many «pesky» warming -
peaks of the past that defy CO2 warming theory, USHCN's algorithm is slowly whittling away at original temperature data that otherwise would reveal a more
cyclical nature to climate change.
In fact, despite a certain warming trend is reproduced in the model, which appears to agree with the observations, the model simulation clearly fail in reproducing the
cyclical dynamics
of the climate that presents an evident quasi 60 - year cycle with
peaks around 1880, 1940 and 2000.
What all
of this «data» leaves out is the tree - ring minima and ice core acidity
peaks that, when integrated with other regional and global climatological events stretching back, at the very least, to 4375 BCE, present a picture
of some kind
of cyclical, apparently cosmically induced climate cycle.
WASHINGTON (November 22, 2016)-- Existing - home sales ascended in October for the second straight month and eclipsed June's
cyclical sales
peak to become the highest annualized pace in nearly a decade, according to the National Association
of Realtors ®.
It also falls far short
of cyclical peaks delivered in 2001 and 2008.
A new measure shows the typical amount
of time it takes to sell a home is shrinking, and for traditional sellers is now in the range
of historic norms for a balanced market, well below the
cyclical peak reached in 2009, according to the National Association
of REALTORS ®.
Improving job and wage prospects lifted the Thomson Reuters / University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment December Index to its most favorable level since its last
cyclical peak in January 2007.
Take advantage
of the
cyclical nature
of the office market by timing entry in the local office market close to the bottom
of the cycle and exiting close to the
peak
«Driven by a combination
of factors, including timing the
cyclical peak and the impact from ongoing political and economic uncertainty, real estate investors across the risk spectrum sounded a cautious note for hotels,» the report says.
Although it has been trending between 1.8 % and 2.1 % during the past year, the number
of units under construction as
of 1Q11 is down 57 % from its
cyclical peak in 1Q08.
The deal means that two Blackstone acquisitions — Equity Office Properties in early 2007 and Centro's retail properties today — make for neat bookends in marking the commercial real estate's
cyclical peak and the end
of the bottom.