Another critique of the Magic Formula is that it tends to pick
cyclical stocks at the top of the cycle.
When the economy is expanding, earnings tend to grow across the market and in such an environment, investors historically could purchase value
cyclical stocks at a much more attractive price than evergreen growth stocks.
Not exact matches
Caterpillar shares have traded
at around 11, 12 and 13 times in the past and as we get closer to the sector's
cyclical peak — which may be in 2016, says Tiss — then the
stock could get less expensive.
Beta looks
at how
cyclical a
stock is compared with the comparable index.
Slater says that
at the moment his fund is leaning towards a continuation in the rally of global
cyclical stocks that have surged since the US presidential election and are reducing their shorts
at the margin.
From our perspective,
stocks in less
cyclical sectors, such as utilities and consumer staples, generally offered much less value and appeared to be trading
at steep valuations.
The S&P 500 registered a record high after an advancing half - cycle since 2009 that is historically long - in - the - tooth and already exceeds the valuation peaks set
at every
cyclical extreme in history but 2000 on the S&P 500 (across all
stocks, current median price / earnings, price / revenue and enterprise value / EBITDA multiples already exceed the 2000 extreme).
Similarly, the sentiment regarding, and interest in, the mining
stocks is
at a low level seen
at cyclical bottoms in the precious metals sector (Oct 2008, Dec 2015):
At the same time, it is quite embarrassing to go for investment in
stocks as we see the current world with
cyclical Sensex index graph.
Shell Oil has more excess profit
at its disposal to fund future dividend growth than
AT&T does (although
AT&T is a non-
cyclical stock that can rely upon steady cash flow from which to pay shareholders each year, whereas Royal Dutch Shell is an oil company that experiences low profits for 2 - 3 out of every ten due to the
cyclical nature of oil and natural gas prices).
The market is missing the positive revenue picture due to recent unrelated issues
at cyclical stocks.
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Although you're looking
at cyclical results by the very nature of the business models, many of those
stocks out there with 40 or 50 consecutive years of dividend increases hail from that sector of the economy.
«That caused people to look
at their portfolios and realize maybe they needed more exposure to
cyclical stocks, and that gave a lift to value versus growth,» he said.
He accurately observed that
cyclical stocks trade
at low PE's
at times of economic tops and high PE's when the market is low.
Those who buy XOM
at $ 100 and sell
at $ 81 will likely do better either not being in
stocks at all, or certainly staying away from
cyclical holdings.
Industrial and consumer
cyclical stocks are a distant second and third,
at approximately 10 % of the portfolio each.
The low beta, or relative risk and performance to the market, will show that these
stocks tend to either perform better - or
at least not as poorly - as
cyclical stocks in bad times and will usually not be most investors» focal points during the boom part of the business cycle when investors are busy chasing technology
stocks and high - growth companies.
The
stock market is
cyclical, it will keep having highs & lows but in the long term (10 years or more) the returns have been almost similar despite the market condition
at the time of making the investment.
EPS stands
at EUR 1.00, and I'm reminded of the rule: With
cyclical stocks, never pay more than 5 - 6 times peak earnings!
Debt's far too high, and debt reduction needs to be the primary focus for such a
cyclical stock (I'm actually disappointed
at the recent dividend announcement).
Shell Oil has more excess profit
at its disposal to fund future dividend growth than
AT&T does (although
AT&T is a non-
cyclical stock that can rely upon steady cash flow from which to pay shareholders each year, whereas Royal Dutch Shell is an oil company that experiences low profits for 2 - 3 out of every ten due to the
cyclical nature of oil and natural gas prices).
So, when you want to build a dividend income machine generating an ever growing passive income stream,
cyclical businesses acquired
at a nice Price have their place, but make sure your BACKBONE INVESTMENTS include some rock solid CONSUMER STAPLE
STOCKS.
The prices of
cyclical stocks climbed faster last year than their earnings leaving the P / E multiple on Morgan Stanley's index
at 29, up from 21 this time last year.
At the same time, it is quite embarrassing to go for investment in
stocks as we see the current world with
cyclical Sensex index graph.
Again, because the
stocks are quite bunched up
at the moment I'm breaking rule number 2 with Support Services companies (3 companies including MITIE and Interserve), and may do so again with another sector, but the basic idea is enforced diversification, so I end up holding things like RB which is very defensive, and Rio Tinto which is
cyclical.