I get the equilibrium temperature after about 4000 years (on a multi-layer ocean) and
cyclical variations in temperature are 6K / 50 years with a fairly low variation of the overall sensitivity.
Cyclical variations in climate are well - known to the public; we all studied the ice ages in school.
But even then, new economy arguments are typically ineffective at explaining away the informative
cyclical variations in good indicators.
First, the «returns on equities» here are typically taken to be earnings yields, which as we've frequently noted, are affected by
cyclical variations in profit margins that make them notoriously poor indicators of long - term prospective returns (see Two Point Three Sigmas Above the Norm and Margins, Multiples and the Iron Law of Valuation).
Because our Margin - Adjusted CAPE already adjusts for
cyclical variations in the embedded profit margin, it does not suffer from similar «dropoff» artifacts when extremely elevated or depressed earnings fall out of the 10 - year average.
Not exact matches
What drives the major
cyclical swings
in stocks isn't
variation in the long - term stream of cash flows investors are likely to receive.
The middle globe shows a drop
in levels west of Mexico, due to a
cyclical climate
variation called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Hidden
in the patterns of genome
variation are signals that indicate large
cyclical fluctuations
in population size that mirror historical patterns of glaciation.
With the available capital, an unavoidable optimism of postwar boom, and a complete lack of habits (good or bad) Kepes attempted to foster «media geared to all sensory modalities; incorporation of natural processes, such as cloud play, water flow, and the
cyclical variations of light and weather; [and] acceptance of the participation of «spectators»
in such a way that art becomes a confluence.»
How these
cyclical climate take place is still unknown, but they «are most likely caused by
variations in the solar wind and associated magnetic fields that affect the flux of cosmic rays incident on cloudiness, and thereby control the amount of sunlight reaching the earth's surface and thus the climate.»
Further experiments will explore the influence of periodic forcings such as the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO)
in equatorial winds and the
cyclical variation of solar radiation.
I've long wondered how those arguing that the recent decline
in arctic sea is natural
cyclical variation can explain the long history of failed attempts to explore the northwest passage by sea.
4) The evidence that those
variations go beyond a basic level of chaotic variability is those
cyclical latitudinal shifts
in the air circulation systems which always follow changes
in SSTs on at least the 3 time scales we have evidence for.
Although it is clear that further attention is required
in defining and characterizing the aspects of this
variation (e.g. frequency and amplitude [44,65]-RRB- that lead to differences
in species responses, a more immediate empirical challenge is to characterize and separate the effects of periodic, stochastic and / or
cyclical natural
variations [61] from directional change imposed by long - term climatic forcing.
It sounded for a while like you were claiming a regular cycle, one that could legitimately be removed from the data
in the manner
in which we deal with say the
cyclical annual
variations.