Part of the difficulty in identifying the human component, if any is, as the IPCC Summary itself notes, that tropical
cyclone activity varies naturally over the decades.
NOAA has issued its annual forecast for the hurricane season, along with its now - standard explanation that there is a natural cycle of multidecadal (40 - 60 year) length in the North Atlantic circulation (often referred to as the «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» — see Figure), that is
varying the frequency of Atlantic tropical
cyclones, and that the present high level of
activity is due to a concurrent positive peak in this oscillation.