Consider the following scenarios for what the tropical
cyclone data from 1940 - 1970 might say:
Moreover, 370 years of tropical
cyclone data from the Lesser Antilles (the eastern Caribbean island chain that bisects the main development region for landfalling U.S. hurricanes) show no long - term trend in either power or frequency but a 50 - to 70 - year wave pattern associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a mode of natural climate variability.
Not exact matches
According to
data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Weather Service, Hurricane Harvey was the wettest
cyclone in U.S. history with a recorded 60.58 inches of rainfall in Nederland, Texas.
Looking at
data from 1855 through 2005, Webster and Holland found that the total number of tropical
cyclones per year doubled in that time,
from an average of six at the beginning of last century to 14 over the past decade.
This composite image, derived
from data collected by the Jovian Infrared Auroral Mapper (JIRAM) instrument aboard NASA's Juno mission to Jupiter, shows the central
cyclone at the planet's north pole and the eight
cyclones that encircle it.
10 years of
cyclone track
data from the National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center
They then compared the results
from their new formula to actual
cyclone intensification
data at each location along tropical
cyclone tracks in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Pacific for the 10 - year period 2004 through 2013.
To attack this information gap, the research team analyzed 30 years of tropical
cyclone track
data obtained
from the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Data from NASA's Juno spacecraft are revealing new details of Jupiter,
from swirling
cyclones at the planet's poles (south pole, shown) to its great white ovals, storms and stripes of gas.
Using infrared
data from NASA's Juno spacecraft, scientists have assembled a 3D map of Jupiter's north polar region, showing details of a huge central
cyclone and eight surrounding storms.
Cyclone Center's primary goal is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally
from inconsistent development of tropical
cyclone intensity
data.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal
data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational
data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing
from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical
cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
[Response: Emanuel's paper does not use disaster losses, but estimates the power of the tropical
cyclones from physical principles and empirical
data (physical measurements).
Ray, the uncertainties in the tropical
cyclone data preclude the cylones
from being used as a «smoking gun» for gobal warming.
Perhaps the best existing analysis of South Pacific tropical
cyclones is that of Kossin et al. (2013), who homogenized the satellite
data record
from 1982 to 2009 to create a temporally consistent record, and compared that to the problematic historical
data base of storms over the world.
«The IPCC hierarchy had its mind made up years ago to make every attempt possible to link rising levels of CO2 with increases in global hurricane intensity and frequency... Input
from skeptics or any hypothesis or
data that did not link rises in CO2 to increases in tropical
cyclone activity was to be avoided, suppressed, or rejected.»
The two correlated well, enabling the team to calculate the
cyclone activity index
from stalagmite
data for the past 700 or 1500 years, depending on the stalagmite.
Here's a buoy's pressure
data from near where the
cyclone is setting up currently.
The researchers compared the GNSS - R satellite measurements with
data from other sources, including tropical
cyclone best track
data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information; two climate reanalysis products; and a spaceborne scatterometer, a tool that uses microwave radar to measure winds near the surface of the ocean.
Weinkle et al., 2012 (Abstract; Google Scholar access provide a database for the recorded landfalling tropical
cyclones for each of the main ocean basins (
data available
from Prof. Pielke Jr.'s website).
Conclusions about the effect of man - made climate change can not be drawn
from data relating to the amount of economic loss caused by
cyclones, according to researchers in Australia and the US.
The Potential Intensity (PI) of tropical
cyclones (Emanuel, 2003) can be computed
from observational
data based primarily on vertical profiles of temperature and humidity (see Box 3.5) and on SSTs.
Visualization super-nerds at NOAA (that's meant in the most flattering way) conjured this top - down look at hurricanes and Pacific
cyclones using storm - track records
from the National Climatic
Data Center.
I suspect that we are a few years away
from an accepted climate
data record for global tropical
cyclones, and I expect that Jim Kossin's analysis since 1983 will be the first important word on this subject, but not the last word.