Even in the best - case scenario, the one seized upon by Gardner in Brown, in which humans turn out to have the least possible effect on the climate, we'll still only be able to avoid the most
dangerous effects of warming if our extremely good luck is coupled with aggressive steps taken to reduce emissions.
In a new paper, the climate scientist Professor James Hansen and a team of international experts found the most
dangerous effects of a warming climate — sea level rise, Arctic ice melt, extreme weather — would begin kicking in with a global temperature rise of 1C.
Not exact matches
The theory
of dangerous climate change is based not just on carbon dioxide
warming but on positive and negative feedback
effects from water vapor and phenomena such as clouds and airborne aerosols from coal burning.
They tend to believe that as the planet
warms, low - level cloud cover will increase, thus increasing planetary albedo (overall reflectiveness
of the Earth), offsetting the increased greenhouse
effect and preventing a
dangerous level
of global
warming from occurring.
To stand the best chance
of keeping the planetary
warming below an internationally agreed target
of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels and thus avoiding the most
dangerous effects of climate change, the panel found, only about 1 trillion tons
of carbon can be burned and the resulting gas spewed into the atmosphere.
:: Center for American Progress via:: CNet More on global
warming effects Dangerous effects of global warming on Earth The Worst Effect of Global Warming So Far...:: The Center for American Progress» Top 100 Effects of Global Warming Two Views on the Effects of Global Warming Global Warming Wants to Eat You
warming effects Dangerous effects of global
warming on Earth The Worst Effect of Global Warming So Far...:: The Center for American Progress» Top 100 Effects of Global Warming Two Views on the Effects of Global Warming Global Warming Wants to Eat You
warming on Earth The Worst
Effect of Global
Warming So Far...:: The Center for American Progress» Top 100 Effects of Global Warming Two Views on the Effects of Global Warming Global Warming Wants to Eat You
Warming So Far...:: The Center for American Progress» Top 100
Effects of Global
Warming Two Views on the Effects of Global Warming Global Warming Wants to Eat You
Warming Two Views on the
Effects of Global
Warming Global Warming Wants to Eat You
Warming Global
Warming Wants to Eat You
Warming Wants to Eat Your Flesh
It might be that serious authorities such as Hansen and the head
of the UNFCCC secretariat are wrong to declare that goal
of a 2.0 C ceiling
of warming poses unacceptably
dangerous climate destabilization, but it seems widely accepted that a peak
of 450ppmv CO2 would allow a near - even chance
of staying below 2.0 C and thereby avoiding the feedbacks taking off with catastrophic
effects.
The actual observed
effects of the
warming that has already occurred, as a result
of the greenhouse gases we have already emitted, are self - evidently already «
dangerous» since they are already causing massive and costly harm.
And, quite disturbingly, with a manifest
warming of only 0.8 ºC, we are already seeing
effects − such as the precipitous receding
of the Arctic sea ice − that are not only
dangerous in themselves but also producing positive feedbacks that accelerate the
warming.
That's a
dangerous combination, since urban populations are more at risk
of disruption from the
effects of global
warming.
That is decidedly not how this paper is used in public discourse though, I think in many instances this paper is used to say that not only do humans cause global
warming, but they are also the major cause and the degree
of effect on nature / climate is in some way
dangerous and needs to be mitigated.
While the greenhouse
effect is undeniably real, and while most scientists agree that there has been a rise in global temperatures caused in some part by human emissions
of carbon dioxide, no one knows how much more
warming will occur this century or whether it will be
dangerous.
For details on the wide - ranging — and
dangerous —
effects of warmer air, see the pages on Health, Food, Water Use, Extreme Wet, Extreme Dry and Land Ecosystems.
Such higher levels
of warming would make it much more difficult for countries to keep the global temperature rise to below 2C, as they agreed to do at the landmark Paris climate summit last year, to avoid
dangerous extreme weather and negative
effects on food security.
Urban heat islands are a
dangerous effect of global
warming, and some cities are taking action to combat it.
Most
of your readers are probably unaware
of the fact that doubling carbon dioxide in itself only produces a modest
warming effect of about 1.2 C and that to get
dangerous warming requires feedbacks from water vapour, clouds and other phenomena for which the evidence is far more doubtful.
A (2) Modern
warming, glacier and sea ice recession, sea level rise, drought and hurricane intensities... are all occurring at unprecedentedly high and rapid rates, and the
effects are globally synchronous (not just regional)... and thus
dangerous consequences to the global biosphere and human civilizations loom in the near future as a consequence
of anthropogenic influences.
From hazardous
effects causing potential loss
of life, injury, or other negative health impacts, to the potential exposure
of social, economic, and infrastructure assets to adverse impacts, global
warming places vulnerable human lives and systems in
dangerous jeopardy.
I will continue to fight for the health
of the waters off
of New England and the United States, and against the
dangerous effects of global
warming on oceans everywhere.
Although a limited range
of positive
effects of global
warming on humans have been identified, the overwhelming majority
of effects are increasingly
dangerous.
Whereas the reports
of the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warn
of a
dangerous human
effect on climate, NIPCC concludes the human
effect is likely to be small relative to natural variability, and whatever small
warming is likely to occur will produce benefits as well as costs.
On that basis alone the cooling
effect of the oceans would dictate that it would take many millennia for any
warming effect in the air from extra CO2 to become measurable let alone
dangerous.
Among other things, the authors state that [1] «scientists do not know how large the greenhouse
effect is, whether it will lead to a harmful amount
of global
warming, or (if it will) what should be done about it» (p. 560); [2] that «profound disagreements» about global
warming exist within the scientific community (p. 560); [3] that so - called «activist scientists» say that the earth's climate is
warming (p. 560); [4] that «science doesn't know whether we are experiencing a
dangerous level
of global
warming or how bad the greenhouse
effect Is, if it exists at all» (p. 569); [5] and that global
warming is «enmeshed in scientific uncertainty» (p. 573).
We can help to avoid the
dangerous effects of global
warming by enacting strong and mandatory policies to shift to renewable sources
of energy and improve energy efficiency.
Few have suggested that below 2º C
of warming the
effects will be beneficial; the goal
of setting that target is to avoid the most
dangerous impacts
of climate change, and some still say it's too high.