Using existing output
data from global climate models, the researchers plotted projections of changes in global average temperature and rainfall against regional changes in daily extremes.
The first paper (Flower et al., 2013) used downscaled climate
data from global climate models, subject to three different emissions scenarios, to examine the effect of projected climate change on the distribution of Douglas Fir and three types of spruce.
That regional climate models can take past
data from global climate models and produce a «reasonably good simulation of regional climate» is quite an achievement — almost a miracle to me.
Not exact matches
Using multiple
climate models and hundreds of terabytes of
data, NASA has projected
global temperatures and rainfall around the world
from 2050 until 2100.
The goals of the project include reconstructing extreme
climate changes
from the recent past (1894 - 2014), using historically referenced
data to assess near - future
global climate model projections, and to ultimately use this analysis to investigate ecological problems in Chesapeake Bay, such as eelgrass diebacks.
To
model a world of ebbing and flowing burns, Krawchuk took historic fire
data then mapped it forward using 16
models of changing
climates from 2010 on, what the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change calls global climate models
Climate Change calls
global climate models
climate models (GCM).
For assessing the
global ocean - carbon sink, McKinley and her co-authors
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NCAR and the University of Colorado Boulder used the
model to establish a long - running
climate scenario
from historical
data.
In his PhD dissertation, he developed a
global rapid loss estimation
model for earthquake, using empirical
data from over 8000 earthquakes since 1900 and the associated socioeconomic
climate over time.
Using
climate models and
data collected about aerosols and meteorology over the past 30 years, the researchers found that air pollution over Asia — much of it coming
from China — is impacting
global air circulations.
Scientists are involved in the evaluation of
global - scale
climate models, regional studies of the coupled atmosphere / ocean / ice systems, regional severe weather detection and prediction, measuring the local and
global impact of the aerosols and pollutants, detecting lightning
from space and the general development of remotely - sensed
data bases.
Because elements of this system are poorly understood and poorly represented in
global climate models, collecting real - time, complementary
data from a variety of areas will go a long way toward improving scientists ability to use these
models for making accurate predictions about Earths
climate.
Find out how researchers are using
data from U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)
Climate Research Facility — the world's most comprehensive outdoor laboratory and data archive for research related to atmospheric processes that affect Earth's climate — to improving regional and global climate
Climate Research Facility — the world's most comprehensive outdoor laboratory and
data archive for research related to atmospheric processes that affect Earth's
climate — to improving regional and global climate
climate — to improving regional and
global climate climate models.
It's a long paper with a long title: «Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate
data,
climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 oC
global warming could be dangerous».
«Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate
data,
climate modeling, and modern observations that 2o C
global warming could be dangerous»
The full title is: «Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate
data,
climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 o C
global warming could be dangerous ``.
If you want a really really simple statistical
climate model, try correlating
global mean annual temperature & / or sea level with the CO2
data from Mauna Loa.
The authors compared recently constructed temperature
data sets
from Antarctica, based on
data from ice cores and ground weather stations, to 20th century simulations
from computer
models used by scientists to simulate
global climate.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the
climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate record and methods for smoothing temporal
data), decadal
climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both
climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate model simulations and observational
data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the
climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing
from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval
Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the
climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and
global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
On July 23, I wrote about the rocky rollout, prior to peer review, of «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence
from Paleoclimate
Data,
Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 °C
Global Warming is Highly Dangerous.»
These
climate - related land storage effects could be significant for
global sea - levels, though unfortunately there seem to be very few direct experimental measurements of the factors involved, and so the only studies of these effects seem to have been
from computer
modelling of
data from weather
data «reanalysis»
models (e.g., ERA - 40).
By analyzing
data from 17 state - of - the - art
global climate models, Cook, Ault and Smerdon learned that western North America's future drought risk exceeded even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate A
climate models, Cook, Ault and Smerdon learned that western North America's future drought risk exceeded even the driest centuries of the Medieval
Climate A
Climate Anomaly.
Data from in situ measurements made at high - altitude stations in the HKH region, observations
from satellitebased instruments, and
global climate modeling study results are discussed.
«Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate
data,
climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C
global warming could be dangerous» J Hansen, M Sato, P Hearty, R Ruedy, M Kelley, V Masson - Delmotte,... Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 (6), 3761 - 3812, 2016
The initial title of «Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate
data,
climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C
global warming is highly dangerous» had the final phrase changed to «could be dangerous.»
Originally posted on Open Mind: A new paper by Hansen et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate
data,
climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C
global warming is highly dangerous is currently under review...
A conclusion
from all findings suggest that
global data bases are seriously flawed and can no longer be trusted to assess
climate trends or rankings or validate
model forecasts.
As reported in Roy's post, these plots by John are based upon
data from the KNMI
Climate Explorer with a comparison of 44 climate models versus the UAH and RSS satellite observations for global lower tropospheric temperature variations, for the period 1979 - 2012 from the satellites, and for 1975 — 2025 for the
Climate Explorer with a comparison of 44
climate models versus the UAH and RSS satellite observations for global lower tropospheric temperature variations, for the period 1979 - 2012 from the satellites, and for 1975 — 2025 for the
climate models versus the UAH and RSS satellite observations for
global lower tropospheric temperature variations, for the period 1979 - 2012
from the satellites, and for 1975 — 2025 for the
models.
F. «
Global temperature» projections of unverified «climate models,» which involve hypothetical forecasts of, not evidence of, global warming, have increasingly diverged from the most reliable temperature records computed from the data collected by U.S. satel
Global temperature» projections of unverified «
climate models,» which involve hypothetical forecasts of, not evidence of,
global warming, have increasingly diverged from the most reliable temperature records computed from the data collected by U.S. satel
global warming, have increasingly diverged
from the most reliable temperature records computed
from the
data collected by U.S. satellites.
«We use a combination of (1) 9 years of
global satellite
data, (2) a simple forcing - feedback
model of
climate variability, and (3) output
from the IPCC
climate models, to demonstrate various aspects of this issue.
NorACIA have both used the facts
from the IPCC and local
data and scaled down
global climate models to regional effects.»
Metzger et al. (NRL Stennis Space Center), 5.0 (3.4 - 6.0),
Modeling The
Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) 3.1 was run in forecast mode without
data assimilation, initialized with July 1, 2015 ice / ocean analyses, for ten simulations using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) atmospheric forcing fields
from 2005 - 2014.
Over the next 3 years the Ocean Colour
Climate Change Initiative project aims to: Develop and validate algorithms to meet the Ocean Colour GCOS ECV requirements for consistent, stable, error - characterized global satellite data products from multi-sensor data archives; Produce and validate, within an R&D context, the most complete and consistent possible time series of multi-sensor global satellite data products for climate research and modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS data on climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
Climate Change Initiative project aims to: Develop and validate algorithms to meet the Ocean Colour GCOS ECV requirements for consistent, stable, error - characterized
global satellite
data products
from multi-sensor
data archives; Produce and validate, within an R&D context, the most complete and consistent possible time series of multi-sensor
global satellite
data products for
climate research and modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS data on climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate research and
modelling; Optimize the impact of MERIS
data on
climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation, climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate data records; Generate complete specifications for an operational production system; Strengthen inter-disciplinary cooperation between international Earth observation,
climate research and modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific exce
climate research and
modelling communities, in pursuit of scientific excellence.
The effects of this uneven sampling are being investigated and quantified in several ways, for example by estimating «true»
global - mean temperatures
from the complete fields generated by satellite observations, blends of satellite and in situ
data, or
climate models, and then sampling these fields using the actual (incomplete) observed
data coverage (see chapter 9).
NRL - ocn - ice, 5.2 (4.3 - 6.0),
Modeling (ice - ocean) The
Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) 3.1 was run in forecast mode without
data assimilation, initialized with June 1, 2016 ice / ocean analyses, for ten simulations using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) atmospheric forcing fields
from 2005 - 2014.
ECMWF as the Entrusted Entity for the Copernicus
Climate Change Service (C3S) is building a Climate Data Store (CDS) that will provide open and free access to quality - assured climate observations, global and regional Essential Climate Variable (ECV) products derived from observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, seasonal forecast data and model - generated future climate change sce
Climate Change Service (C3S) is building a
Climate Data Store (CDS) that will provide open and free access to quality - assured climate observations, global and regional Essential Climate Variable (ECV) products derived from observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, seasonal forecast data and model - generated future climate change sce
Climate Data Store (CDS) that will provide open and free access to quality - assured climate observations, global and regional Essential Climate Variable (ECV) products derived from observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, seasonal forecast data and model - generated future climate change scenar
Data Store (CDS) that will provide open and free access to quality - assured
climate observations, global and regional Essential Climate Variable (ECV) products derived from observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, seasonal forecast data and model - generated future climate change sce
climate observations,
global and regional Essential
Climate Variable (ECV) products derived from observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, seasonal forecast data and model - generated future climate change sce
Climate Variable (ECV) products derived
from observations,
global and regional
climate reanalyses, seasonal forecast data and model - generated future climate change sce
climate reanalyses, seasonal forecast
data and model - generated future climate change scenar
data and
model - generated future
climate change sce
climate change scenarios.
From a combination of climate models, satellite data, and paleoclimate records the scientists conclude that the West Antarctic ice sheet, Arctic ice cover, and regions providing fresh water sources and species habitat are under threat from continued global warm
From a combination of
climate models, satellite
data, and paleoclimate records the scientists conclude that the West Antarctic ice sheet, Arctic ice cover, and regions providing fresh water sources and species habitat are under threat
from continued global warm
from continued
global warming.
«Analyze geoscience
data and the results
from global climate models to make an evidence - based forecast of the current rate of
global or regional
climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.Use a
model to describe how variations in the flow of energy into and out of Earth's systems result in changes in
climate.»
The GFDL
Data Portal also provides access to the latest (and previous) IPCC output
from several Coupled Ocean — Atmosphere
Global Climate Models (GCMs).
From a combination of climate models, satellite data, and paleoclimate records, Hansen and co-author Makiko Sato of Columbia's Earth Institute, conclude that the West Antarctic ice sheet, Arctic ice cover, and regions providing fresh water sources and species habitat are threatened from continued global warm
From a combination of
climate models, satellite
data, and paleoclimate records, Hansen and co-author Makiko Sato of Columbia's Earth Institute, conclude that the West Antarctic ice sheet, Arctic ice cover, and regions providing fresh water sources and species habitat are threatened
from continued global warm
from continued
global warming.
The
climate information provided for this purpose is derived
from observations,
global and regional reanalyses, seasonal forecast
data,
climate model simulations, and other
data needed to estimate or project sectoral impacts.
Eli, and the bunnies, have been following the on line review of Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate
data,
climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C
global warming is highly dangerous by J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson - Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A. N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K. - W.
Together, it is our goal to provide the best description of the middle Pliocene
global warming, using perspectives
from marine and terrestrial
data as well as
climate model simulations.
That might have changed this week with the coverage of announcement of «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence
from Paleoclimate
Data,
Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 °C
Global Warming is Highly Dangerous» by James Hansen and 16 other eminent scientists.
Interactive comment on «Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate
data,
climate modeling, and modern observations that 2C
global warming is highly dangerous» by J. Hansen et al..
Although it has been a common practice in studying paleoclimate
data to use proxy
data from, for example, an ice core in Antarctica, to represent
global climate after dividing the former by a factor of ∼ 2 or by a
model - determined, latitude - dependent scaling factor, theoretical justification is only beginning to be emphasized (22).
Combine the new and improved
data, measured correlation between the old
models and the new
data, and improved
climate models that, when properly vetted and compared with historical
climate reconstructions, and you end up with a very compelling
global heating theory that has convinced 620 authors
from 42 countries that both the theory and the predictions are accurate.
«It is unlikely that coastal cities or low - lying areas such as Bangladesh, European lowlands, and large portions of the United States eastern coast and northeast China plains could be protected against such large sea level rise,» states a report co-authored by Hansen, titled «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence
from Paleoclimate
Data,
Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 °C
Global Warming is Highly Dangerous».