Climate impacts research is in its infancy compared to science on the physical climate, for a number of reasons: attributing cause and effect isn't easy; neither is collecting
data over timescales and regions long and large enough such that it's possible to draw any meaningful trends from their analysis.
Climate impacts research is in its infancy compared to science on the physical climate, for a number of reasons: attributing cause and effect isn't easy; neither is collecting
data over timescales and regions long and large enough such that it's possible to draw any meaningful trends from their analysis.
Not exact matches
Our distinctive contribution was to look at government costs and performance
over a much longer
timescale than had been attempted before and we believe our own study will contribute to transparency and accountability through our unique publicly - available compilation of consistent long - term time - series of official
data.
With the help of giant genomic
data sets, scientists can now track these evolutionary shifts in allele frequencies
over short
timescales.
For example,
data from this study has been used to examine the evolution of gas hydrate stability within the Eurasian Arctic
over glacial
timescales, exploring the development of massive mounds and methane blow - out craters that have been recently discovered on the Arctic seafloor.
Weathering of rocks can control Earth's temperature
over geologic
timescales, new geochemical
data suggest.
Due to the availability of
data from three observing runs separated by ~ 10 and 1 month
timescales, we are able to demonstrate clear evidence for evolution of the photometric amplitudes, and hence spot patterns,
over the 10 month gap, although we are not able to constrain the
timescales for these effects in detail due to limitations imposed by the large gaps in our sampling, preventing use of the phase information.
I know that Mike Schlesinger is going to be working on further studies to see what extra
data, and
over what
timescales, might help us constrain the upper tail, but the possibility arises that no amount of
data will do this, or at least, not in time for us to act on it with enough warning to prevent serious problems.
He also pointed out that it is «unlikely that significant progress will be evident» in national social mobility
data, and believes officials should also plan to monitor progress at that level «
over a longer
timescale».
I agree the OHC
data are incompatible with a predominately internal contribution (although I'm sure Judith would argue those
data are too uncertain, though I don't think anyone has argued OHC decreasing
over the last half - century, at least not at the ocean basins / depths that communicate with the atmosphere on the relevant
timescales).
It appears that Ghil, and others specifically warn against the use of MEM and temperature
data: «Instrumental temperature
data over the last few centuries do not seem, for instance, to determine sufficiently well the behavior of global or local temperatures to permit a reliable climate forecast on the decadal
timescale by this SSA - MEM method.»
«We build on this insight to demonstrate directly from ice - core
data that,
over glacial — interglacial
timescales, climate dynamics are largely driven by internal Earth system mechanisms, including a marked positive feedback effect from temperature variability on greenhouse - gas concentrations.»
All the
data that I'm aware clearly shows that models predicting or hindcasting global temperature trends do far better at 30 year
timescales than annually or
over only a few years.
For example,
data from this study has been used to examine the evolution of gas hydrate stability within the Eurasian Arctic
over glacial
timescales, exploring the development of massive mounds and methane blow - out craters that have been recently discovered on the Arctic seafloor.
The notion that
over the longer
timescales, forced responses dominated (at least for the second half of the past century) is reinforced by
data on Ocean Heat Uptake since 1955.
By contrast, drifters only provided
data over a limited
timescale.
I know of no reason why the apparent averaging out of short term fluctuations
over longer
timescales dominated by forcing was an inevitable result that could have been derived without reference to the actual
data.
So, to make a long story short, the
data and model agree on the
timescales over which the
data is expected to be reliable.
Reanalysis
data from 1948 to 2005 indicate weakening westerlies
over this time period, a trend leading to relatively cooler temperatures on the east slope
over decadal
timescales.
Furthermore, although not in direct relation to the solar - cloud studies, Brest et al. (1997) state that the ISCCP
data are not sensitive enough to detect small changes in cloud cover
over long
timescales.
Assuming a CR - cloud connection exists, there are various factors which could potentially account for a lack of detection of this relationship
over both long and short
timescales studies, including: uncertainties, artefacts and measurement limitations of the datasets; high noise levels in the
data relative to the (likely low) amplitude of any solar - induced changes; the inability of studies to effectively isolate solar parameters; or the inability to isolate solar - induced changes from natural climate oscillations and periodicities.
If we're going to go along with Roy Spencer, we have to reject a basic model of climate change that explains the
data over widely divergent
timescales, and replace it with... a big, fat nothing.
The longer the
timescale over which you compute the trend, the less likely this is to happen as the noise averages out the more
data you look at.