Eight of the top 10 years for extreme one -
day precipitation events have occurred since 1990.
A week after the event the climateprediction.net team, together with the World Weather Attribution team, provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one -
day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing northern England and southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred.
NOAA data also shows an increase in one -
day precipitation events (single days of either rain or snow) since the middle of the 20th century.
Extreme rainfall events are trending upward, and nine of the top 10 years for extreme one -
day precipitation events have happened since 1990.
Not exact matches
To identify extreme weather
events, the researchers relied on county and calendar
day specific thresholds for
precipitation and maximum temperature (90th and 95th percentile, respectively) that were calculated based on 30 years of baseline data (1960 - 1989).
While the models do not reliably track individual extreme weather
events, they do reproduce the jet stream patterns and temperature scenarios that in the real world lead to torrential rain for
days, weeks of broiling sun and absence of
precipitation.
In general, models tend to produce too many
days with weak
precipitation (< 10 mm
day — 1) and too little
precipitation overall in intense
events (> 10 mm
day — 1).
The temperatures we experience locally and in short periods can fluctuate significantly due to predictable cyclical
events (night and
day, summer and winter) and hard - to - predict wind and
precipitation patterns.
Precipitation occurs about once every seven days in the western part of the region and once every three days in the southeastern part.77 The 10 rainiest days can contribute as much as 40 % of total precipitation in a given year.77 Generally, annual precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards more intense precipitation events is projected to continue in
Precipitation occurs about once every seven
days in the western part of the region and once every three
days in the southeastern part.77 The 10 rainiest
days can contribute as much as 40 % of total
precipitation in a given year.77 Generally, annual precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards more intense precipitation events is projected to continue in
precipitation in a given year.77 Generally, annual
precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards more intense precipitation events is projected to continue in
precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20 % in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.77, 78,79 This tendency towards more intense
precipitation events is projected to continue in
precipitation events is projected to continue in the future.80
The pattern of change for the wettest
day of the year is projected to roughly follow that of the average
precipitation, with both increases and decreases across the U.S. Extreme hydrologic
events are projected to increase over most of the U.S.
«Once - in - five - year» heavy
precipitation events — two -
day precipitation totals that are exceeded, on average, only once in a 5 - year period — are becoming more common.
Northeast states can expect more climate change related heat waves — with significantly more
days above 90 degrees F — and flooding from sea level rise and extreme
precipitation events.
Then there's just this record - breaking
precipitation that we're seeing, which is also linked to warmer baseline temperatures, because when you have warmer temperatures, you have drought, but you also have these freak
precipitation events, these big dumps, whether of storm when you think about Boston and those images of cars fully submerged in snow, or what's happening right now in Texas, where you're getting 10 months worth of rain in a period of
days.
A nice example is a near flooding situation in Northern Netherlands (January 2012), caused by a combined occurrence of a saturated soil due to excessive antecedent
precipitation, a heavy
precipitation event in the coastal area and a storm surge with a duration of several
days that hindered the discharge of excess water from the area.
One measure of heavy
precipitation events is a two -
day precipitation total that is exceeded on average only once in a 5 - year period, also known as the once - in - five - year
event.
The data show a bulls - eye of one
day precipitation amounts greater than 150 mm in the northern part of Kananaskis Provincial Park, which exceeds the estimated 100 year
event for that location1.
Wet -
day percentiles are conditionally computed for the subset of wet
events (with
precipitation exceeding some threshold, e.g. 1 mm / d for daily
precipitation).
More than one - half of the stations showed a significant positive relationship at the daily time scale between warm nights (daily minimum temperature greater than the 90th percentile) or warm
days (daily maximum temperature above the 90th percentile) and heavy -
precipitation events (daily
precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile), with the greater frequencies found for the east and southwest coasts during autumn and winter.
We show that these indices yield an assessment of changes in heavy
precipitation events that is qualitatively consistent with all -
day percentiles, but there are substantial differences in quantitative terms.
• Increases in very hot
days and heat waves, • Increases in Arctic temperatures, • Rising sea levels, • Increases in intense
precipitation events, and • Increases in hurricane intensity
In general, the majority of all
precipitation occurs as isolated 1 -
day events, while most extreme
precipitation occurs over a period of several hours embedded within 2 - 5
day events.
In fact, the
precipitation events that produced the flooding in Pakistan could have been forecast at the 5 - 10
day lead - time and, with an appropriate warning system, lives and property could have been saved.
In recent years, a larger percentage of
precipitation has come in the form of intense single -
day events.
Many impacts of climate change will be realised as the result of a change in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather
events such as windstorms, tornados, hail, heatwaves, gales, heavy
precipitation or extreme temperatures over a few hours to several
days.