Bain recently looked at a subset of post-financial-crisis deals in its proprietary database and compared
deal model forecasts with actual results over the holding period.
Not exact matches
We can not use consensus values for our margin
forecasts because our margin calculations take into account a great
deal more data than is used in most analysts»
models.
Fast forward to the present where sophisticated computer
forecasting models such as the Monte Carlo simulation have become the preferred tools for
dealing with the uncertainty surrounding retirement planning.
The 1,018 - page report convincingly and systematically challenges IPCC claims that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing «dangerous» global warming and climate change; that IPCC computer
models can be relied on for alarming climate
forecasts and scenarios; and that we need to take immediate, drastic action to prevent «unprecedented» climate and weather events that are no more frequent or unusual than what humans have had to adapt to and
deal with for thousands of years.
That
forecast is consistent with a statement in the aforementioned IPCC technical report: «In climate research and
modeling, we should recognize that we are
dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction of future climate states is not possible.»
First, in
dealing with skill you are comparing the
forecast from the
model in question with that of a naive
model, which almost ipso facto will be a statistical
model.