High nominal
debt levels relative to GDP create their own crisis.)
What isn't hard is looking at the overall
debt levels relative to GDP, and realizing that we have only rationalized a part of them.
So just how are mortgage delinquency rates so incredibly low at a time when household
debt levels relative to incomes have never been higher?
In doing so, the Fed pushed
debt levels relative to GDP far higher than they were during the Great Depression.
Rather, weak GDP predictably results in revenue shortfalls and the need for counter-cyclical spending, all of which causes a disproportionate jump in
debt levels relative to GDP.
Household
debt levels relative to incomes are now well above where they were in the U.S. at the peak of that country's housing bubble.
So just how are mortgage delinquency rates so incredibly low at a time when household
debt levels relative to incomes have never been higher?
Not exact matches
If current laws remained generally unchanged, the United States would face steadily increasing federal budget deficits and
debt over the next 30 years — reaching the highest
level of
debt relative to GDP ever experienced in this country.
This does not refer to
debt per se, but rather, the
level of fixed expense
relative to total sales.
When this happens and as
debt levels rise
relative to
debt servicing capacity, at some point the major stakeholders — including businesses, creditors, household savers, workers and so on — became uncertain enough about how this gap will be allocated that they take steps to protect themselves from this uncertainty.
Unfortunately, corporate
debt relative to U.S. GDP has now returned to prerecession
levels, a risk made even riskier by rising interest rates.
The worse the
debt level gets, the faster
debt rises
relative to GDP.
The latest forecast of the University of Ottawa's Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy shows that rising interest rates threaten Morneau's promise to contain Canada's
debt at current
levels relative to gross domestic product.
Instead, duplication of credit between deficit and surplus countries has kept the system far from equilibrium while sending global
relative debt to record
levels.
«If I find fault with a company's balance sheet, especially with the
level of
debt relative to the assets or cash flows, I will abort our analysis, unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise» Ed Wachenheim
Copeland also noted the fact that families with heads ages 75 or older whose
debt payments are excessive
relative to their incomes is near its highest
levels since 1992.
According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, «the percentage of families whose
debt payments are excessive
relative to their incomes are at or near their highest
levels since 1992.»
As I discuss in Debelle (2004),
debt - to - income ratios are not necessarily the appropriate benchmark to assess
relative debt levels as they deflate a stock by a flow.
Our analysis suggests this would be a more sustainable
level of
debt for the commonwealth to carry
relative to its potential gross national product (GNP).
It has been conscious that a balance needs to be struck between the benefits of monetary stimulus and the medium - term risks associated with rising
levels of
debt relative to our incomes.
That is just a little over 4 years, and we can expect a continuation of deleveraging for many years to come - we have a long way to go in order to get back to the
levels of household
debt relative to GDP or Personal Disposable Income (PDI).
The Macri government has begun borrowing again from international and Wall - Street banks, but the
level of external
debt is not large
relative to the size of the economy.
Second, the published data show a
level of interest expenses in the recent past which seems too low
relative to what is implied by the
level of
debt and prevailing interest rates, both of which are fairly readily observable.
Further, using the constituents of the S&P 500 Bond Index, measures of
debt relative to cash flows are at
levels not seen since 2008 (see Exhibit 2).
We also try to maintain a reasonable
level of credit card
debt,
relative to our card limits.
I'm not saying penalize securitization, but put it on a
level playing field so that the inherent leverage involved in securitization gets a higher capital charge
relative to straight
debt of a similar risk class.
Begin inflating the currency to force up the value of collateral
relative to nominal
debt levels
In a country where consumers have grown accustomed to low rates, and where households are burdened with record
levels of
debt relative to income, this kind of change is worth noting.
I've suggested it before, but perhaps monetary policy should not focus on (at least solely) price inflation or unemployment, but on the
level of total
debt relative to GDP.
Household
debt levels are at record highs
relative to income and interest rates are at record lows.
On the other hand, if too much dept is accumulated
relative to income
levels, economic activity may decrease in order to ensure the return of
debts, which in turn might lower the currency price.
We found that for many PSLF - eligible professions, the
debt levels at which this occurs are quite low
relative to the amount graduate students borrow and the total cost of attendance for their degrees.
The EBRI report notes that «the percentages of families whose
debt payments are excessive
relative to their incomes are at or near their highest
levels since 1992.
Similarly, a study from 2013 conducted at Northwestern University found that those who had high
debt relative to household assets, reported higher
levels of stress, depression, and poor self - reported general health.
Because of the increasing
level of cash flows necessary to service the
debt relative to the economic yield on the assets, it doesn't take much fluctuation to make the most marginal borrowers question whether they can hold onto the assets.
Those periodic special dividends are feasible because of the firm's immaculate balance sheet, which has almost no
debt, relatively high cash
levels (
relative to the size of the company and its acquisitions), and a high current ratio (i.e. the company's short - term assets cover its short - term liabilities by more than three-fold, thus protecting it from unexpected negative financial strains, such as during recessions when demand from restaurants can lead to declining sales, earnings, and cash flow).
«That seasonal consistency is encouraging... With both delinquencies and
debt levels remaining quite low
relative to historical norms, we are confident in the continued stability of credit card usage patterns in the short term.»