Sentences with phrase «decadal change of»

``... The nearly 50 - yr time series shows that the decadal change of the global oceanic evaporation (Evp) is marked by a distinct transition from a downward trend to an upward trend around 1977 — 78.

Real life suddenly interrupted data gathering, and all those sailors dipping their thermometers into buckets of wood or leather or steel checking for that decadal change of a few hundredths of a degree that meant life or death for our planet suddenly had something else to worry about.

Changes in the watershed can, for example, lead to changes in alkalinity and CO2 fluxes that, together with metabolic processes and oceanic dynamics, yield high - magnitude decadal changes of up to 0.5 units in coastal pH. Metabolism results in strong diel to seasonal fluctuations in pH, with characteristic ranges of 0.3 pH units, with metabolically intense habitats exceeding this range on a daily basis.

Not exact matches

This trade wind strengthening, which occurs during a the negative phase of a phenomenon called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (also known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), pushes warm water westward and and changes Pacific Ocean circulation.

Changes in the oceans occur more slowly than in the atmosphere, and this long - term memory of the ocean is a major key to seasonal and decadal predictions.

A new report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine finds that continuity of ocean observations is vital to gain an accurate understanding of the climate, and calls for a decadal, national plan that is adequately resourced and implemented to ensure critical ocean information is available to understand and predict future changes.

The value of this information is illustrated by the results of a study published May 19 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by Oster's group, working with colleagues from the Berkeley Geochronology Center, the Smithsonian Institution National Museum of Natural History and the University of Cambridge titled «Northeast Indian stalagmite records Pacific decadal climate change: Implications for moisture transport and drought in India.»

The working group on coupled biogeochemical cycling and controlling factors dealt with questions regarding the role of plankton diversity, how ocean biogeochemistry will respond to global changes on decadal to centennial time scales, the key biogeochemical links between the ocean, atmosphere, and climate, and the role of estuaries, shelves, and marginal seas in the capturing, transformation, and exchange of terrestrial and open - marine material.

The study stops short of attributing California's latest drought to changes in Arctic sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like warm sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric climate pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.

Combining the STORM model with analysis of the rainfall data set allowed the investigators to gain insights into decadal trends in monsoonal rainfall intensity under climate change.

April 23, 2018 - A new earth modeling system unveiled today will have weather - scale resolution and use advanced computers to simulate aspects of Earth's variability and anticipate decadal changes that will critically impact the U.S. energy sector in coming years.

There was also clear evidence of decadal and multi-decadal variability in the patterns of change in MHW properties.

New research published this week in the Journal of Climate reveals that one key measurement — large - scale upper - ocean temperature changes caused by natural cycles of the ocean — is a good indicator of regional coastal sea level changes on these decadal timescales.

Figure 5: Contributions of individual forcing agents to the total change in the decadal average temperature for three time periods.

Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in sea - surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence of climate warming on these patterns is uncertain.

The first collection of papers establishes that (a) decadal and multi-decadal ocean circulation patterns (AMO, PDO, NAO, ENSO) have significantly modulated precipitation and temperature changes in recent decades, and the second collection of papers confirm that (b) natural ocean oscillations are, in turn, modulated by solar activity.

In this study, we undertake another effort towards understanding the role of the Sun in changing or varying the Earth's climate on seasonal to decadal time scale.

A number of recent studies linking changes in the North Atlantic ocean circulation to sea ice extent led Yeager to think that it would also be possible to make decadal predictions for Arctic winter sea ice cover using the NCAR - based Community Earth System Model...

The rate of release from the tundra alone is predicted to reach 1.5 billion tons of carbon per annum before 2030, contributing to accelerated climate change, perhaps resulting in sustained decadal doubling of ice loss causing collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 2011).

«The impacts of sea level change will be felt most acutely during periods of high sea level, both from this type of interannual (and decadal) variability as well as extreme events,» Church said.

From 1992 to 2003, the decadal ocean heat content changes (blue), along with the contributions from melting glaciers, ice sheets, and sea ice and small contributions from land and atmosphere warming, suggest a total warming (red) for the planet of 0.6 ± 0.2 W / m2 (95 % error bars).

It is the top priority of my research group to try to solve this problem to improve our climate predictions and, depending on the answer, it could affect predictions on all timescales from medium range forecasts, through monthly, seasonal, decadal and even climate change projections.

Figure 4: Contributions of individual forcing agents to the total decadal temperature change for three time periods.

Hoerling and Kumar (2003) attributed the drought to changes in atmospheric circulation associated with warming of the western tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, while McCabe et al. (2004) have produced evidence suggesting that the confluence of both Pacific decadal and Atlantic multi-decadal fluctuations is involved.

[11] Few attribute the decline in fog, and moreover, climate change, to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, however, as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is an oscillation moving heat through the climate system but neither creating nor retaining heat, it is not a cause of warming trends or declines in fog.

What is looked for is small changes against a background of large interannual variation to decadal variation.

I focused on Fig 2 of Rahmstorf 2012, which shows the rate of sea level change in the form of 10 yr decadal trends.

Although I might not take it for granted that the horizontal homogeneity of temperature due to the dynamic adjustment in the tropics would guarantee the horizontally uniform temperature changes in the decadal scale, the data do show it!

When I read the media PR on this, it looked like BEST claimed better statistical methods, leading to lower estimates of the uncertainty in the temperature change - even at the decadal level.

There is even evidence of annual - decadal heat content changes down to 1500 meters.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

For the Earth's «fast» system, changes in decadal statistics can be computed on the basis of changes in forcing such as GHG's, without any need for knowledge of the initial conditions.

Thermal mass of the oceans on the other hand is huge, so they follow with some principal lag of decades, but they follow «noisy» as decadal variations like ENSO or changes in weather patterns due to climate change overlay that.

It also hasn't been well - argued that there is a need to replace the underlying framework we have of how climate changes on decadal timescales.

The rate of increase (i.e. change in temperature per year) is increasing, so maybe the best way to tell is by comparing decadal changes.

If you can't keep up with annual - decadal changes in the TOA radiative imbalance or ocean heat content (because of failure to correctly model changes in the atmosphere and ocean due to natural variability), then your climate model lacks fidelity to the real world system it is tasked to represent.

This is important because * if * resources were more abundant and * if * climate change were happening more slowly and * if * climate could not possibly change multiple degrees and multiple meters of SLR on decadal time scales, my solution set would be vastly different.

Bob Davis also won the AAG Climate Specialty Group Paper of the Year award in 2004 for his paper «Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities,» International Journal of Biometeorology 47:166 - 175.

Northeast Pacific coastal warming since 1900 is often ascribed to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, whereas multidecadal temperature changes are widely interpreted in the framework of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which responds to regional atmospheric dynamics.

While rereading the ocean heat content changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease in ocean heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's heat balance on decadal time - scales.»

Back around 2007/8, two high - profile papers claimed to produce, for the first time, skilful predictions of decadal climate change, based on new techniques of ocean state initialization in climate models.

When this reinforces the anthropogenic change, it can cause RILEs [rapid ice loss events]-- but it can also counter that change and cause brief periods of near - stability (or even small increases on a decadal scale).

Next point, changes in volcanic activity can affect decadal and century - scale temperatures due to the random occurence of eruptions of the right sort (though I don't think you dispute that).

These factors driving the present changes of the NHSM system are instrumental for understanding and predicting future decadal changes and determining the proportions of climate change that are attributable to anthropogenic effects and long - term internal variability in the complex climate system.

Concerning climate - change forecasting, we can not expect that increased computer power and improved climate models will in the future «give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales».

The declining signal over India shown by the GPCP decadal mode is broadly consistent with gauge measurements since the 1950s — that several research groups including my own are trying to understand, perhaps relating to emissions of anthropogenic aerosol — although there are discrepancies between these gauge - based data sets themselves (see our recent review in Nature Climate Change, for example).

On decadal and longer time scales, global mean sea level change results from two major processes, mostly related to recent climate change, that alter the volume of water in the global ocean: i) thermal expansion (Section 5.5.3), and ii) the exchange of water between oceans and other reservoirs (glaciers and ice caps, ice sheets, other land water reservoirs - including through anthropogenic change in land hydrology, and the atmosphere; Section 5.5.5).

The likelihood of climate - change catastrophe obviously is zero on decadal time - scales, and it is reasonably small too (we hope!)

«Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming.»

Using the figures from the table, the change in average «decadal» TOA flux (with, of course, only 9 years for the final «decade») are: