Sentences with phrase «decadal climate forecasts»

Understanding the role of the ocean in climate change and making decadal climate forecasts will be greatly enhanced by observations planned as part of an international Global Ocean Observing System.

Translate the knowledge developed about AMOC variability and predictability mechanisms into reliable decadal climate forecasts.

Not exact matches

Decadal forecasting, which began in 2007, uses the same climate models that are normally run to simulate changes across many decades, but only goes up to one decade out.

It is the top priority of my research group to try to solve this problem to improve our climate predictions and, depending on the answer, it could affect predictions on all timescales from medium range forecasts, through monthly, seasonal, decadal and even climate change projections.

In other words, it is possible that the the climate system does exhibit some kind of long - term chaos in some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar period.

For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

It appears that Ghil, and others specifically warn against the use of MEM and temperature data: «Instrumental temperature data over the last few centuries do not seem, for instance, to determine sufficiently well the behavior of global or local temperatures to permit a reliable climate forecast on the decadal timescale by this SSA - MEM method.»

Concerning climate - change forecasting, we can not expect that increased computer power and improved climate models will in the future «give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales».

Like weather forecasts — initialized decadal climate modelling might indeed be possible — but these are orders of magnitude more difficult than weather forecasts.

The suggestion that skillful decadal forecasts can be produced on large regional scales by exploiting the response to anthropogenic forcing provides additional evidence that anthropogenic change in the composition of the atmosphere has influenced the climate.

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

During 2015 our decadal prediction system was upgraded to use the latest high resolution version of our coupled climate model, consistent with our seasonal forecasts.

I'm pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State - of - the - Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State - of - the - Art Climate Models *.

I do think that forecasting how the climate might change on decadal timescales in the face of increased CO2 concentrations is a much more constrained problem than those that GCMs typically are set to deal with.

Just as weather forecasts are useful for a week or so until too many errors accumulate — it may just be possible to build a climate model that is useful for seasonal to decadal forecasting.

You can get a quick overview of definitions, and the performance of seasonal and decadal climate predictions in these SPECS factsheets: Fact sheet # 6: Tropical Cyclone Forecasts (May 2015) Read more about SPECS: http://www.specs-fp7.eu/ According to the SPECS Dissemination work package, the fact sheets will be two - page long documents that intend to introduce basic concepts of... Read More

An appropriate title, when discussing the the Keenlyside et al. (2008) paper (not Dr. Latif's speech at the WCC3), would be «Global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade», and then to clarify that internal climate modes may temporarily halt further global warming because of regional cooling over portions of N. America, N. Atlantic and Europe, and caution that decadal forecasts are in their infancy.

Component B, Forecasts: the ongoing production of experimental quasi-operational decadal climate predictions in support of multi-model annual to decadal forecasting and the application of the forecasts to socieForecasts: the ongoing production of experimental quasi-operational decadal climate predictions in support of multi-model annual to decadal forecasting and the application of the forecasts to socieforecasts to societal needs

Fortunately, climate science is rapidly developing the tools to meet this challenge, as in the near future it will be possible to attribute cause and effect in decadal - scale climate variability within the context of a seamless climate forecast system [Palmer et al., 2008].

Decadal climate prediction is immature, and uncertainties in future forcings, model responses to forcings, or initialisation shocks could easily cause large errors in forecasts.

Decadal forecasts, also called «near - term» climate predictions, range up to a decade ahead.

For more forecasting work from the UK Met Office and by scientists from the Met Office and 12 other international research centres: «Real - time multi-model decadal climate predictions ``, Doug M. Smith, Climate Dynamics, December 2012 — Red emphasisclimate predictions ``, Doug M. Smith, Climate Dynamics, December 2012 — Red emphasisClimate Dynamics, December 2012 — Red emphasis added.

Hurricane Sandy - Extreme Events and Global Cooling 11/18/12 Global Cooling Climate and Weather Forecasting 1/22/13 Global Cooling Timing and Amount 2/18/13 Its the Sun Stupid — the Minor Significance of CO2 4/2/13 Global Cooling Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions.

There is active modelling to hindcast and forecast yields of major crops with data from decadal time spans under climate change.

At this point it is possible to attempt a full forecast of the climate since 2000 that is made of the four detected decadal and multidecadal cycles plus the corrected anthropogenic warming effect trending.

Let's look in more detail at the paper's key figure, the one that looks at past and (forecast) future global temperatures, «Hindcast / forecast decadal variations in global mean temperature, as compared with observations and standard climate model projections» (click to enlarge)

The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.

He then writes» we need climate observations to initialize the models to forecast variations up to decadal time scales».

Guest essay by Michael G. Wallace Hydroclimatologist, Albuquerque, NM The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UN IPCC features and endorses decadal global climate forecasting prClimate Change UN IPCC features and endorses decadal global climate forecasting prclimate forecasting products.