Sentences with phrase «decadal climate prediction»

We examined the potential skill of decadal predictions using the newly developed Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), based on the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)(17), a dynamical global climate model (GCM).

Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing

Decadal climate prediction is immature, and uncertainties in future forcings, model responses to forcings, or initialisation shocks could easily cause large errors in forecasts.

The experimental protocol for the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6 is described in detail in Boer et al. (2016).

The coordination of the scientific and practical aspects of decadal climate prediction research within WCRP is undertaken by the DCPP Panel under the guidance of the Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP).

Questions and comments concerning the DCPP may be conveyed via the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) Participant Forum.

There is currently less skill in predicting precipitation and other variables compared to temperature although progress is expected to be made as a consequence of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and other projects and investigations.

DECADE (2011 - 2015) Decadal climate prediction in adaptation to climate change.

Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate - land - vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become beneficial for water resource management, forestry, and agriculture.

Decadal climate prediction of annual mean variations in total water storage (left), vegetation carbon (center), and fire season length (right panels) over the Northern US.

Guidelines for Component C Pacemaker Experiments TECHNICAL TECHNICAL NOTE 3, DECADAL CLIMATE PREDICTION PROJECT (DCPP)- Component C

This hindcast setting roughly follows the experimental design of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - 5 (CMIP5) for decadal climate prediction (Taylor et al. 2009; Murphy et al. 2010).

A new study published in Scientific Reports has developed a state - of - the - art drought and wildfire prediction system based on the decadal climate prediction approach using the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

This seemed to me like perhaps a more realistic effort at decadal climate prediction.

Jan 15, 2018: For the MiKlip II project (short for «decadal climate predictions»), a magnetic tape library has been put into operation at the DKRZ to store the resulting project data.

Improving this understanding can help advance the prediction of the AMV impacts and, hence, decadal climate predictions.

Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions simulations.

You can get a quick overview of definitions, and the performance of seasonal and decadal climate predictions in these SPECS factsheets: Fact sheet # 6: Tropical Cyclone Forecasts (May 2015) Read more about SPECS: http://www.specs-fp7.eu/ According to the SPECS Dissemination work package, the fact sheets will be two - page long documents that intend to introduce basic concepts of... Read More

Although our results are based on an idealized modeling framework that captures only naturally occurring climate variations, they clearly suggest that decadal climate predictions for soil hydrological conditions are feasible and may become beneficial for forestry, water management, and agriculture.

Component B, Forecasts: the ongoing production of experimental quasi-operational decadal climate predictions in support of multi-model annual to decadal forecasting and the application of the forecasts to societal needs

If the transition zone indeed controls decadal AMOC variability, monitoring this region may enable scientists to measure and perhaps predict AMOC variability, with potential impacts for interannual - to - decadal climate predictions.

The ability to predict retrospectively this slowdown not only strengthens our confidence in the robustness of our climate models, but also enhances the socio - economic relevance of operational decadal climate predictions.

For more forecasting work from the UK Met Office and by scientists from the Met Office and 12 other international research centres: «Real - time multi-model decadal climate predictions ``, Doug M. Smith, Climate Dynamics, December 2012 — Red emphasis added.

Not exact matches

«Based on what we've found, it is possible that sea - level rise over decadal time scales will be a key storyline in future climate predictions,» he said.

Under the Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models (EaSM) program, the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energy will kick in a total of $ 50 million a year for 5 years.

The agencies will invest nearly $ 50 million annually in the new program, dubbed «Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models,» or EaSM for short, and expect to deliver improved versions within the next three years.

It is the top priority of my research group to try to solve this problem to improve our climate predictions and, depending on the answer, it could affect predictions on all timescales from medium range forecasts, through monthly, seasonal, decadal and even climate change projections.

For the future, data assimilation might help us to keep the state of a climate model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve predictions on seasonal and decadal time scales.

For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.

Back around 2007/8, two high - profile papers claimed to produce, for the first time, skilful predictions of decadal climate change, based on new techniques of ocean state initialization in climate models.

The second study addresses this issue by using a suite of decadal prediction experiments performed with a climate model capable of simulating multi-year La Niña events.

There has been a recent emphasis in decadal - scale prediction, and also creating a marriage between climate and fields such as synoptic - dynamic meteorology... something relatively new (and a different sort of problem, than say, estimating the boundary condition change in a 2xCO2 world); as Susan Solomon mentioned in her writing, a lot of people have become much more focused on the nature of the «noise» inherent within the climate system, something which also relates to Kevin Trenberth's remarks about tracking Earth's energy budget carefully.

Part of the basis for the Mail's claims appears to be Latif et al's 2008 Nature paper, Advancing decadal - scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

Additionally, the observed surface temperature changes over the past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal periods of flat temperatures during an overall long - term warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).

Further, just as seasonal - to - interannual predictions start from an estimate of the state of the climate system, there is a growing realization that decadal and longer - term climate predictions could be initialized with estimates of the current observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface.

Prediction Continued improvements in modeling decadal - scale dynamics — and longer, when ice - sheet and deep - ocean dynamics are included — will continue to affirm the multi-decade arc of strong climate science that concludes «Hansen's worldview is right.»

During 2015 our decadal prediction system was upgraded to use the latest high resolution version of our coupled climate model, consistent with our seasonal forecasts.

Julia Slingo makes it clear that the BBC report confused the public with their headline because it conflated a decadal prediction with climate change.

As they have matured, climate models are being increasingly used to provide decision - relevant information to end users and policy makers, whose needs are helping define the focus of model development in terms of increasing prediction skill on regional and decadal time scales.

I agree that the ambition to make (regional) climate predictions even at decadal or longer time scales can not be supported by the current apparent feasibility, given the studies that demonstrate the lack of predictive skill.

It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al.,climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et aprediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al.,Climate Prediction (Kushnir et aPrediction (Kushnir et al., 2016).

The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on interannual and decadal time scales can be improved.»

The development of a fully coupled ocean - ice - atmosphere prediction system is a key issue for a better Outlook and for climate predictions on a decadal time scale.

Members of the working group have published a paper in Climate Dynamics entitled «A verification framework for interannual - to - decadal prediction experiments.»

Motizuki, T., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Sakamoto, H. Shiogama, T. Awaji, N. Sugiura, T. Toyoda, S. Yasunaka, H. Tatebe, and M. Mori, 2008: Hindcasting the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in relevance to a near - term climate prediction.

The key is accurately representing the large - scale ocean circulation and associated heat transport in the climate models used to make the decadal predictions.

Advancing decadal - scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic Sector, Nature, 453, 84 - 88.

US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for predictionDecadal Predictability Working Group, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for predictiondecadal climate variability: Implications for prediction, Bull.

The US CLIVAR PPAI Panel seeks new panelists with expertise in one or more of the following areas: (a) predictability of weather / climate extremes, (b) multi-model ensembles, (c) decadal prediction; (d) application, impact, and mitigation strategies for marine ecosystems or (e) agricultural products; or (f) interactions with stakeholders and / or stakeholder boundary organizations.