«NASA's examination of ocean observations has provided its own unique contribution to our knowledge of
decadal climate trends and global warming,» said Veronica Nieves, a researcher at JPL and the University of California, Los Angeles and co-author of the new study.
Not exact matches
«Such
decadal climate fluctuations are superimposed on the general warming
trend, so that at times it seems as if the warming
trend slowed or even stopped.
Combining the STORM model with analysis of the rainfall data set allowed the investigators to gain insights into
decadal trends in monsoonal rainfall intensity under
climate change.
Though the ecological effects of these
climate oscillations have been described in various settings, the influence of
decadal indices to long - term marine turtle population
trends is largely unexplored.
[11] Few attribute the decline in fog, and moreover,
climate change, to the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, however, as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation is an oscillation moving heat through the
climate system but neither creating nor retaining heat, it is not a cause of warming
trends or declines in fog.
Specifically, he addressed a claim made by Will Happer, a Princeton professor, that no models demonstrate
decadal variability in
trends (which was not the case), and explored in depth the signal to noise ratio in determining
climate trends much more comprehensively than had been done previously.
Well when I look at it the GISS
decadal,
climate only, signal
trend, matches the weather and
climate decadal signal
trend.
He says «Well when I look at it the GISS
decadal,
climate only, signal
trend, matches the weather and
climate decadal signal
trend.
Additionally, the observed surface temperature changes over the past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and
decadal periods of flat temperatures during an overall long - term warming
trend are predicted by
climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).
Decadal nets are important for
climate trends and sea level.
You may think these are unimportant at the
decadal scale, but this is exactly the topic of Cohn and Lins paper, and, getting back on topic, the Tsonis paper — these larger scale variations have a huge impact on how we perceive
climate in the 20th century, particularly in the interpretation of
trends.
Even a perfect model can deviate significantly from past observed
trends or changes, just because the physical system allows variability at
decadal time scales; the
climate and its
trend that we're experiencing is just one of the many
climates that we could have had.
However, this relationship (which, contrary to the claim of MFC09, is simulated by global
climate models, e.g. Santer et al. [2001]-RRB- can not explain temperature
trends on
decadal and longer time scales.»
According to IPCC AR5, the mismatch between models and observations during both 1984 - 1998 and 1998 - 2012 may be due to «internal
decadal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and sometimes counteracts the long - term externally forced
trend» (Chapter 9, p. 769).
MIT Scientist's study finds: Data may be «insufficient to compute mean sea level
trends» —
Decadal Trends in Sea Level Patterns: 1993 - 2004 — By Dr. Carl Wunsch, MIT et al. in Journal of
Climate — October 12, 2008
A 35 - year dust record established from Barbados surface dust and satellite observations from TOMS and the European geostationary meteorological satellite (Meteosat) show the importance of
climate control and Sahel drought for interannual and
decadal dust variability, with no overall
trend yet documented (Chiapello et al., 2005).
Eg, even over a 30 - year period (statistically significant WRT
climate change), the range of
decadal trends starts at -0.05 C for the South pole, and is greatest at 0.45 C at the North pole.
Unforced variability of global temperature is great, as shown in Figure 4, but the global temperature
trend on
decadal and longer time scales is now determined by the larger human - made
climate forcing.
Another paper in
Climate Change in 2007 stated: Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban - related
trend is an order of magnitude smaller than
decadal and longer time - scale
trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999)... Thus, the global land warming
trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing urbanization (Parker, 2006).
Latif, M., Martin, T. & Park, W. Southern Ocean sector centennial
climate variability and recent
decadal trends.
Granted, the
trend of this period is a mere 1 / 3rd of the IPCC prediction of 0.2 C / decade, but what this tells us is the presence of
decadal trends might tell us almost nothing about the
climate regime we are observing.
This is partly because the interannual to
decadal variability is generally large in these variables, and partly because there are large uncertainties and sometimes an artificial
trend in observations owing to the difficulty in measurement of these
climate variables (Trenberth et al. 2007).
At this point it is possible to attempt a full forecast of the
climate since 2000 that is made of the four detected
decadal and multidecadal cycles plus the corrected anthropogenic warming effect
trending.
A CDR suitable for studying interannual to
decadal climate variability and
trends includes a time series produced with stable, high - quality data, and error characteristics that have been quantified by accounting for all of the above sources of error and noise.
These errors, as well as the influence of
decadal and multi-
decadal variability in the
climate, have been taken into account when estimating linear
trends and their uncertainties (see Appendix 3.
Analyses of satellite - derived phytoplankton concentration (available since 1979) have suggested
decadal - scale fluctuations linked to
climate forcing, but the length of this record is insufficient to resolve longer - term
trends.