Sentences with phrase «decadal climate variations»

An improved dynamical understanding of how the tropical Pacific Ocean transitions into hiatus events, including its seasonal structure, may help to improve future prediction of decadal climate variations.

Not exact matches

While the atmosphere is mainly causing climate variations on shorter time scales, from months to years, the longer - term fluctuations, such as those on decadal time scales, are primarily determined by the ocean.

The middle globe shows a drop in levels west of Mexico, due to a cyclical climate variation called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerlingdecadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerlingclimate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and HoerlingDecadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and HoerlingClimate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).

Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in sea - surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence of climate warming on these patterns is uncertain.

On shorter time scales, and layered on top of Pacific Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can also affect variation in snowpack.

The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures.

Allan, R.P., and A. Slingo, 2002: Can current climate forcings explain the spatial and temporal signatures of decadal OLR variations?

Over the last 30 years of direct satellite observation of the Earth's climate, many natural influences including orbital variations, solar and volcanic activity, and oceanic conditions like El Nino (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have either had no effect or promoted cooling conditions.

His research concerns understanding global climate and its variations using observations and covers the quasi biennial oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation and the annular modes of the Arctic oscillation and the Antarctic oscillation, and the dominant spatial patterns in month - to - month and year - to - year climate variability, including the one through which El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific influences climate over North America.

For the most part, I've not seen much evidence to suggest that internal variations alone can bring the climate to a new state on decadal timescales, even if the internal fluctuations do not completely average out over decades (e.g.,, the PDO being in a positive phase more than a negative phase during the timescale of consideration).

(«On decadal to century timescales, climate dynamics — the complex interplay of multiple external forcings (rapid and slow), the spectrum of atmospheric and ocean circulation oscillations, interactions with biosphere — determines variations in climate.»)

She goes so far as to say (in her post responding to Gavin's post, but responding to something else) «I do regard the emerging realization of the importance of natural variability to be an existential threat to the mainstream theory of climate variations on decadal to century time scales.»

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureClimate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

How is it then possible that the IPCC climate models can replicate these decadal variations at exactly the same years?

Thermal mass of the oceans on the other hand is huge, so they follow with some principal lag of decades, but they follow «noisy» as decadal variations like ENSO or changes in weather patterns due to climate change overlay that.

In the Swanson and Tsonis paper it is suggested that the decadal variations of the global mean temperature, the climate shifts, observed in the 20th century are basically caused by the synchronization of four modes.

In the washup AMOC may be a fundamental driver of abrupt climate change in the Quaternary — e.g. but the 20 - 30 year decadal variations have a different origin.

You may think these are unimportant at the decadal scale, but this is exactly the topic of Cohn and Lins paper, and, getting back on topic, the Tsonis paper — these larger scale variations have a huge impact on how we perceive climate in the 20th century, particularly in the interpretation of trends.

The models exhibit large variations in the rate of warming from year to year and over a decade, owing to climate variations such as ENSO, the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

In conclusion, our analysis suggests that strong interannual and decadal variations observed in the average land surface temperature records represent a true climate phenomenon, not only during the years when fluctuations on the timescale of 2 - 15 years had been previously identified with El Nino events.

Climate models may not exhibit decadal variation accurately enough to exhibit such plateaus.

This includes, but is not limited to, the sensitivity of the resource to climate variations and change on short (e.g., days); medium (e.g., seasons) and long (e.g., multi ‐ decadal) time scales.

These include solar - related chemical - based UV irradiance - related variations in stratospheric temperatures and galactic cosmic ray - related changes in cloud cover and surface temperatures, as well as ocean oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation that significant affect the climate.

Even after this is done, some longer term natural variations remain, most notably a phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that causes irregular shifts in the climate roughly every few decades.

Large - scale climate variations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are occurring at the same time as the global climate is changing.

Charlie Skeptic does not believe in any of the explanations publicly given for past decadal, centennial and millennial Holocene climate variations affecting the Earth as a whole.

Decadal variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual variability with far - reaching effects on global climate patterns5, 6, 7.

Pauses are expected in the warming record because of natural variation that can add to or subtract from decadal climate change because that is only tenths of a degree.

And eventually, explains Dr. Johann Jungclaus, «the anthropogenic climate change and the natural decadal variation will add leading to a much stronger temperature rise.»

«The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a climate index based upon patterns of variation in sea surface temperature of the North Pacific from 1900 to the present (Mantua et al. 1997).

Moreover, the Niño3 index does not capture the low frequency, decadal scale variations of tropical climate that could influence the extratropics (Deser et al. 2004).

But, he said, the study «clearly could have important implications for better quantifying and characterizing our assessment of climate variations over decadal to tens to hundreds of thousands of years cycles.»

Regional circulation patterns have significantly changed in recent years.2 For example, changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified in recent changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability in sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4

Decadal climate prediction of annual mean variations in total water storage (left), vegetation carbon (center), and fire season length (right panels) over the Northern US.

Although our results are based on an idealized modeling framework that captures only naturally occurring climate variations, they clearly suggest that decadal climate predictions for soil hydrological conditions are feasible and may become beneficial for forestry, water management, and agriculture.

Component C, Predictability, mechanisms, and case studies: the organization and coordination of decadal climate predictability studies and of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours

On decadal to century timescales, climate dynamics — the complex interplay of multiple external forcings (rapid and slow), the spectrum of atmospheric and ocean circulation oscillations, interactions with biosphere — determines variations in climate.

Natural factors such as the Sun (84 papers), multi-decadal oceanic - atmospheric oscillations such as the NAO, AMO / PDO, ENSO (31 papers), decadal - scale cloud cover variations, and internal variability in general have exerted a significant influence on weather and climate changes during both the past and present.

The decadal predictions system, Met Office decadal prediction system: DePreSys, achieves this by starting predictions from observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and including projected emissions of greenhouse gases and variations in natural climate forcings (volcanic and solar activity).

Climate - Change Common - Sense Economic neodenialism is morally wrong on generational scales, while natural variation is prominent on decadal scales.

Twenty - seven climate scientists concluded «decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate that closely with the warming observed over the United States.

The natural causes of climate variations that have time scales (century, decadal; e.g. Schwabe sunspot cycles, average solar output during the satellite measuring era,, ENSO / PDO / AMO and the rest of the alphabet soup of «oscillations», volcanism) either don't capture energy over multiple cycles — if I push a child on a swing, his average position doesn't move away from me — or are going in the wrong direction.

Scientists know of and study many different types of climate variations, such as those on decadal and multi-decadal timescales in the Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans, each with its own unique characteristics.

Let's look in more detail at the paper's key figure, the one that looks at past and (forecast) future global temperatures, «Hindcast / forecast decadal variations in global mean temperature, as compared with observations and standard climate model projections» (click to enlarge)

Mojib Latif suggests, as other climate modellers, that decadal variations could explain the variations in Sahel rainfall, or the variations in Atlantic hurricane activity or sea level.

He then writes» we need climate observations to initialize the models to forecast variations up to decadal time scales».