The phrase
"decadal predictability" refers to the ability to make predictions about something that will happen within the next ten years. It means that there are factors or patterns that can be analyzed to anticipate future events or changes over a decade-long period.
Full definition
Finally, we studied whether potential
decadal predictability of soil water would provide a means to ascertain wildfire risks across North America.
The
potential decadal predictability of land hydrological and biogeochemical variables in North America is examined using a 900 - year - long pre-industrial control simulation, conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.3.
The task team will also coordinate with the U.S. CLIVAR
Decadal Predictability Working Group as well as the CLIVAR Working Group on Ocean Model Development and CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observational Panel.
In contrast, the dominant mode of total water storage exhibits a large degree of redness, which translates
into decadal predictability of depth integrated soil moisture, particularly for the deep soil layers.
Associated with the long - term predictability of soil water and internal slow vegetation adjustment timescales, we also found evidence
for decadal predictability of total vegetation carbon and fire season length in the CESM experiments.
US
CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction, Bull.
We have evaluated the
potential decadal predictability of variations in soil water, vegetation, and fire frequency over North America using the low resolution version of the earth system model CESM.
However,
this decadal predictability, «necessary for infrastructure planning, energy policy, business development, and issues related to sustainability» (to quote the PNAS paper) is only useful to end - users (people on the ground) if rainfall in local regions can be better predicted.
Hawkins, E. and R. Sutton, 2008b:
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: estimation of optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling.