"Decadal prediction" refers to making forecasts or predictions about upcoming events or trends that are expected to occur over a period of ten years. It involves using various scientific methods and data to anticipate what might happen in the next decade.
Full definition
The second study addresses this issue by using a suite
of decadal prediction experiments performed with a climate model capable of simulating multi-year La Niña events.
...» (Ref: Contribution from Working Group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC; 11.2.3 Prediction Quality; 11.2.3.1
Decadal Prediction Experiments)
We examined the potential skill of
decadal predictions using the newly developed Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), based on the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)(17), a dynamical global climate model (GCM).
(Funding studies attributing extreme weather using regional climate models which show no skill
at decadal prediction is currently a waste of time.)
It doesn't seem surprising to me that GCM simulations don't give
useful decadal predictions on regional scale (or at least they are just beginning to get to the point where decadal scale predictions have useful skill IIRC).
Our results demonstrate that
skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions.
Retrospective decadal predictions with DePreSys show improvements over uninitialised forecasts, including global average temperature and Atlantic hurricane frequency.
The following is an email exchange with Dr. Mojib Latif, Professor for Climate Physics at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, concerning his recent work
in decadal prediction.
This is not particularly surprising, since it is expected that the importance of the new simulations will be seen in the differences between model types (i.e. including carbon cycles, atmospheric chemistry etc.), or in new kinds of diagnostics from say, the
initialized decadal predictions, that weren't available before.
Given the multi-year predictability associated with the AMV, this study is encouraging for the prospect of getting skillful
decadal predictions over regions outside of the North Atlantic through the impacts of the AMV.
To facilitate discussion, I begin by noting that there is much in Betts's post that we can agree with — for example, the increased role of social media, the increased focus by governments on the need for adaptation and
hence decadal predictions.
It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended
comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016).
Ensemble decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can skillfully predict past decadal rates of Atlantic winter sea ice change because they do well at predicting THC - driven ocean heat content change in the vicinity of the winter sea ice edge in the Labrador, Greenland, Irminger, and Barents Seas.
We don't think the science is that clear cut — most of that dealing with
decadal prediction suggesting a cooling influence from natural variation over a decade or three.
Component A, Hindcasts: the design and organization of a
coordinated decadal prediction (hindcast) experiment, in conjunction with the seasonal prediction and climate modelling communities, and the production of a comprehensive archive of results for research and applications
There are three main novelties this time around that I think are noteworthy: the use of more interactive Earth System models, a focus on
initiallised decadal predictions, and the inclusion of key paleo - climate simulations as part of the suite of runs.
The new research used the Met Office Hadley Centre's
Decadal Prediction System and found that the model was good at predicting summer Sahel rainfall over the forthcoming five years.
Comparing to models with initialized states, ie attempts
at decadal prediction, would be more interesting.
Members of the working group have published a paper in Climate Dynamics entitled «A verification framework for interannual - to -
decadal prediction experiments.»
Claims then that this kind
of decadal prediction is useful for policy - makers or scientists thus remain very premature.
Changes in the oceans occur more slowly than in the atmosphere, and this long - term memory of the ocean is a major key to seasonal and
decadal predictions.
It's quite clear that if we could run our models at a higher resolution we could do a much better job — tomorrow — in terms of our seasonal and
decadal predictions.
«International Conferences on Subseasonal to
Decadal Prediction» are to be held 17 - 21 Sep 2018 at NCAR, Boulder, USA.
The techniques for
decadal prediction have advanced somewhat since these earliest attempts (as described in Meehl et al., 2014), but no skilful initialized predictions have yet been verified.
My advice is to hammer down
those decadal predictions, explain a solid understanding of the natural cycles and where they would have headed without the extra CO2.
«When it comes to
decadal predictions that explain anything more than a tiny fraction of the variability in anything more than a tiny fraction of the land area, I have yet to be shown any result that says that this is possible, even theoretically...»