Sentences with phrase «decadal prediction skill»

Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end - toend decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales.

Not exact matches

Balmaseda, M.A., M.K. Davey, and D.L.T. Anderson, 1995: Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill.

«Contributed to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions»?.

External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

On the one hand you say «I don't know how to assess skill of decadal trends» and on the other hand you also claim that the «prediction of mean temperature at the regional scale can be done fairly well given the robust temperature trend».

As they have matured, climate models are being increasingly used to provide decision - relevant information to end users and policy makers, whose needs are helping define the focus of model development in terms of increasing prediction skill on regional and decadal time scales.

I agree that the ambition to make (regional) climate predictions even at decadal or longer time scales can not be supported by the current apparent feasibility, given the studies that demonstrate the lack of predictive skill.

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

However, initialized prediction ensembles using CESM can skillfully predict low - frequency modulations in the decadal trends of Arctic sea ice, and the significant skill scores for Atlantic sector sea ice extent, in particular, suggest that CESM DP future forecasts merit serious consideration.

Therefore, decadal hydrological prediction requires an understanding of both the externally forced component and the prediction skill of internally generated decadal hydroclimate variability.

There is currently less skill in predicting precipitation and other variables compared to temperature although progress is expected to be made as a consequence of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and other projects and investigations.

The models do nt attempt to predict weather, are poor at regional prediction and have no skill at even decadal level prediction.

Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing

It doesn't seem surprising to me that GCM simulations don't give useful decadal predictions on regional scale (or at least they are just beginning to get to the point where decadal scale predictions have useful skill IIRC).

We examined the potential skill of decadal predictions using the newly developed Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), based on the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)(17), a dynamical global climate modeldecadal predictions using the newly developed Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), based on the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)(17), a dynamical global climate modelDecadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), based on the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)(17), a dynamical global climate model (GCM).