Sentences with phrase «decadal predictions using»

We examined the potential skill of decadal predictions using the newly developed Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys), based on the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3)(17), a dynamical global climate model (GCM).

Karspeck, A., S. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, and H. Teng, 2014: An evaluation of experimental decadal predictions using CCSM4.

Not exact matches

The new research used the Met Office Hadley Centre's Decadal Prediction System and found that the model was good at predicting summer Sahel rainfall over the forthcoming five years.

Under the Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models (EaSM) program, the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energy will kick in a total of $ 50 million a year for 5 years.

The agencies will invest nearly $ 50 million annually in the new program, dubbed «Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models,» or EaSM for short, and expect to deliver improved versions within the next three years.

While each of the scientists not involved with the Met Office said they saw the potential usefulness of decadal forecasting, they said that any particular predictions at present aren't at the stage where they can be used for any kind of decision - making.

A number of recent studies linking changes in the North Atlantic ocean circulation to sea ice extent led Yeager to think that it would also be possible to make decadal predictions for Arctic winter sea ice cover using the NCAR - based Community Earth System Model...

The second study addresses this issue by using a suite of decadal prediction experiments performed with a climate model capable of simulating multi-year La Niña events.

Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end - toend decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales.

During 2015 our decadal prediction system was upgraded to use the latest high resolution version of our coupled climate model, consistent with our seasonal forecasts.

As they have matured, climate models are being increasingly used to provide decision - relevant information to end users and policy makers, whose needs are helping define the focus of model development in terms of increasing prediction skill on regional and decadal time scales.

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

However, initialized prediction ensembles using CESM can skillfully predict low - frequency modulations in the decadal trends of Arctic sea ice, and the significant skill scores for Atlantic sector sea ice extent, in particular, suggest that CESM DP future forecasts merit serious consideration.

Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions simulations.

The key is accurately representing the large - scale ocean circulation and associated heat transport in the climate models used to make the decadal predictions.

Ensemble decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can skillfully predict past decadal rates of Atlantic winter sea ice change because they do well at predicting THC - driven ocean heat content change in the vicinity of the winter sea ice edge in the Labrador, Greenland, Irminger, and Barents Seas.

A new study published in Scientific Reports has developed a state - of - the - art drought and wildfire prediction system based on the decadal climate prediction approach using the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

The authors commented «This implies that the current [climate] models are ill - suited to localised decadal predictions, even though they are used as inputs for policy making.»»

This investigation will also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large - scale teleconnections (Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation), providing the basis upon which seasonal predictions can be developed.

There are three main novelties this time around that I think are noteworthy: the use of more interactive Earth System models, a focus on initiallised decadal predictions, and the inclusion of key paleo - climate simulations as part of the suite of runs.